Weekly update - 23 January 2020

During the week ending 22 January 2020 widespread rainfall was recorded across tropical northern Australia, Western Australia and eastern Australia. These falls are likely to benefit plant growth and build soil moisture levels, and provide useful inflow to farm water storage in affected areas.

Across Australia’s summer cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 25 and 100 millimetres were recorded across north-eastern New South Wales and much of Queensland. Lighter falls between 5 and 10 millimetres was recorded across remaining summer cropping regions in western New South Wales during the week ending 22 January 2020.

Rainfall for the week ending 22 January 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 22/1/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

For the week ending 21 January  2020, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across north-eastern Australia and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C above average across areas of central, western and eastern Australia. In contrast, minimum and maximum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C below average across parts of southern Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 21 January 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 22/01/2020

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 21 January 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 22/01/2020

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral and expected to remain neutral until at least the end of autumn 2020. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which likely contributed to dry conditions across much of Australia during winter and spring 2019, has weakened to below positive IOD thresholds. Likewise, a recent persistent negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has also weakened and is currently neutral.

With these two major drying climate influences easing, the likelihood of drier conditions has weakened somewhat. Abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and to the west of Australia may also be contributing to some changes in weather patterns over the continent.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that during February there is no strong shift towards wetter or drier than average rainfall for much of Australia. Parts of northern and western Queensland and the east of the Northern Territory are slightly more likely to be drier than average during February. In contrast, parts of southern South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and the far north of Australia are slightly more likely to be wetter than average (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 January 2020).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall February 2020

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are given as a probability (or chance) of exceeding a specified rainfall or temperature threshold. In the case of the Bureau’s rainfall outlook, it is represented as the chance of rainfall being above median, expressed as a percentage. While this probabilistic forecast indicates that there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months for much of Australia, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to ease current long-term deficiencies.

The rainfall outlook for February to April 2020 suggests that across most of Australia, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months. Parts of eastern and central Australia are slightly more likely to be drier than average. In contrast, parts of southern and northern Western Australia, central South Australia, Tasmania and the far north of the Northern Territory are slightly more likely to be wetter than average (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 January 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall February to April 2020

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature February to April 2020

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature February to April 2020

Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 25 and 50 millimetres are forecast for large areas of northern and eastern Australia. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 150 millimetres are forecast for parts of tropical northern Australia as the monsoon trough develops. This rainfall will likely benefit pasture growth, summer crop growth and improve soil moisture levels across northern and eastern Australia.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 25 and 50 millimetres is expected across Queensland and much of northern New South Wales. Lighter falls of between 5 and 15 millimetres are expected across the remaining summer cropping regions in western New South Wales during the next 8 days.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 23 to 30 January 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 23/01/2020

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected World Indicator Prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	22-Jan	US$/A$	0.69	0.69	0%	0.72	-4%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	21-Jan	US$/t	237	238	<1%	240	<1%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	15-Jan	US$/t	172	171	<1%	166	4%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	26-Nov	US$/t	423	423	0%	423	0%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	23-Jan	USc/lb	79.4	79.6	<1%	83.2	-5%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	23-Jan	USc/lb	14.4	13.9	4%	12.9	12%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	16-Jan	Ac/kg clean	1,609	1,609	0%	1,923	-16%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	11-Jan	Ac/kg clean	1,687	1,687	0%	2,083	-19%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	21-Jan	A$/t	336	331	2%	352	-5%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	07-Jan	A$/t	442	447	-1%	455	-3%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	07-Jan	A$/t	385	382	<1%	438	-12%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	07-Jan	A$/t	467	477	-2%	432	8%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	16-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	516	516	0%	478	8%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic	16-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	593	596	<1%	365	62%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	16-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	738	738	0%	651	13%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	10-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	430	430	0%	323	33%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)	20-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	879	816	8%	586	50%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	18-Jan	Ac/kg lwt	330	330	0%	325	2%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	09-Dec	$/head	105	140	-25%	108	-3%	chart
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a
Dairy – Whole milk powder	21-Jan	US$/t	3,233	3,150	3%	2,777	16%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	21-Jan	US$/t	3,036	3,026	<1%	2,405	26%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	21-Jan	US$/t	4,048	4,015	<1%	3,504	16%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	21-Jan	US$/t	4,821	4,929	-2%	5,294	-9%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution