Weekly update - 23 November 2017

During the week ending 22 November 2017 widespread rainfall blanketed much of eastern and northern Australia. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Similar totals were recorded in south-eastern and north-western South Australia, northern and southern parts of Western Australia, and in northern and southern parts of the Northern Territory. Higher totals between 50 and 100 millimetres were recorded in parts of all states and territories except Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 316 millimetres at Mount Mercer, west of Melbourne in Victoria.

While recent heavy rainfall has caused some delays to the harvest of winter crops, these falls are likely to increase soil moisture profiles for summer crops, improve pasture growth and boost stream flows and dam and on farm storage levels across much of eastern and northern Australia.

Rainfall - week ending 22 November 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 22/11/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

During the week ending 21 November 2017 maximum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C above average in Western Australia and 4°C to 10°C above average across much of Victoria and all of Tasmania due to a near-stationary high pressure system over the Tasman Sea. Maximum temperatures were below average (-2°C to -4°C) in north-eastern New South Wales, south-eastern and central Queensland. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C above average in western and southern Australia, with higher temperature anomalies (4°C to 6°C) in Victoria and Tasmania. They were close to average across the remainder of Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 21 November 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 21/11/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 21 November 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 21/11/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

On 22 November 2017, the Bushfire & Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) released an update to their Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2017. Bushfire potential has been reduced from above normal to normal in Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales due to above average rainfall in these areas since October. Above normal bushfire potential remains for southern, central and western parts of the country due to dry conditions and increased likelihood of above average maximum temperatures.

For further information, visit Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC

Southern Australia seasonal bushfire outlook 2017

 

Source: Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2017, 22 November 2017

Widespread rainfall is forecast in parts of eastern, central and northern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are expected across most of New South Wales, the Northern Territory and Victoria–except the north-west. Similar totals are forecast in south-eastern South Australia, northern Western Australia and scattered parts of Queensland. Higher totals (between 50 and 100 millimetres) are forecast in north-eastern New South Wales, northern parts of the Kimberley in Western Australia, and in the Northern Territory.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 23 to 30 November 2017

 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 23/11/2017

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific are approaching La Niña thresholds and as a result the Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO outlook has been raised to ‘La Niña Alert’. This means there is a 70 per cent chance of La Niña occurring–approximately triple the normal likelihood. All eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that La Niña thresholds will be reached by December 2017, although most model outlooks suggest the event will be short-lived.

La Niña is typically associated with above average winter–spring rainfall, particularly over eastern Australia. By summer, the La Niña influence on Australian rainfall weakens in most areas. Additionally, current rainfall outlooks for Australia suggest that other climate drivers (such as ocean temperatures around northern Australia) may play a role during summer, to some degree counteracting La Niña effects. La Niña can also increase the likelihood of extended warm periods for south-eastern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 21 November 2017).

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 23 November 2017 by 115 gigalitres (GL) to 15,733 GL and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 16 percentage points or 3,553 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 23 November 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

 

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained the same in the week ending 23 November 2017 at $114 per ML. This is a decrease of $2 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $139 in October across the whole southern MDB, and $73 during the same time last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

 

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 23 November 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

	Southern MDB	Victoria Goulburn	SA Murray	NSW Murrumbidgee	Victoria Murray	NSW Murray
Current week: 17/11/17 – 23/11/17	$113.83	$92.19	$132.50	$145.00	$127.14	$135.11
Last week: 10/11/17 – 16/11/17	$115.43	$98.07	$137.26	$108.93	$136.55	$136.42
October 2017	$138.94	$114.28	$176.71	$137.69	$143.93	$148.38
October 2016	$72.87	$88.96	$76.51	$50.75	$103.94	$76.25

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	22-Nov	US$/A$	0.76	0.76	0%	0.74	3%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	21-Nov	US$/t	219	223	-2%	191	15%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	22-Nov	US$/t	150	148	1%	151	<1%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga	21-Nov	US$/t	437	438	<1%	423	3%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	22-Nov	USc/lb	80.3	79.6	<1%	80.8	<1%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	22-Nov	USc/lb	15.2	15.0	1%	20.0	-24%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	16-Nov	Ac/kg clean	1,683	1,681	<1%	1,314	28%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	17-Nov	Ac/kg clean	1,725	1,722	<1%	1,353	27%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	21-Nov	A$/t	234	232	<1%	203	15%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	22-Nov	A$/t	253	253	0%	239	6%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	22-Nov	A$/t	251	246	2%	176	43%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	13-Nov	A$/t	544	536	1%	534	2%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	18-Nov	A$/t	309	309	0%	233	33%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	23-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	577	579	<1%	649	-11%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	24-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	470	459	2%	412	14%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	16-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	600	625	-4%	539	11%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	10-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	276	276	0%	378	-27%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	20-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	486	486	0%	611	-20%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	18-Nov	Ac/kg lwt	330	320	3%	350	-6%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	20-Nov	$/head	112	100	12%	86	30%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	21-Nov	US$/t	2,778	2,852	-3%	3,423	-19%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	21-Nov	US$/t	1,701	1,818	-6%	2,562	-34%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	21-Nov	US$/t	3,831	4,001	-4%	3,697	4%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	21-Nov	US$/t	6,887	6,894	<1%	5,348	29%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution