Weekly update - 24 May 2018

During the week ending 23 May 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls being restricted to the north-east of Queensland and the south-eastern corner of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across southern Victoria, Tasmania and isolates areas of north-eastern Queensland and southern South Australia. Higher totals of between 50 and 200 millimetres were recorded across parts of western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 264 millimetres at Mount Read in western Tasmania.

Rainfall - week ending 23 May 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 23/05/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperatures continued to be warmer than average across western areas of Western Australia during the week ending 22 May 2018. Maximum temperatures were generally close to average for the remainder of the country. In contrast, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C below average across large areas of mainland Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 May 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 22/05/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 May 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 22/05/2018

Note: Maximum and minimum temperatures for April 2018 compared with temperature recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information go to Daily maximum temperatures for Australia

During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across most of the country. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for much of Victoria, the west of Western Australia, southern New South Wales and South Australia, Tasmania and isolated coastal regions of Queensland. Heavier falls of between 50 and 150 millimetres are forecast for the far south-west of Western Australia.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 24 May to 31 May 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 24/05/2018

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—meaning that it is neither in an El Niño nor La Niña phase. Over the coming months, climate models predict the central tropical Pacific Ocean will remain either steady at current values (close to the climatological average) or slowly warm. Two international climate models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached during late winter to early spring, one by August and the other by October. When ENSO is neutral it has limited influence on Australian and global climate. During an El Niño, eastern Australia typically sees less rainfall than usual during winter and spring.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also currently neutral. There is little consensus in the models for the coming months, with a broad spread across the outlooks for winter and into spring. Most models predict the IOD to maintain neutral values until early spring. However, one of six international climate models is forecasting a positive IOD to develop in winter, while another is predicting a negative IOD to develop during spring. This variation in model outcomes may be explained by model skill being lower for outlooks of the IOD made at this time of year than, when compared to forecasts made during winter and spring. During negative IOD events, winter–spring rainfall is typically above average over southern Australia, while positive IOD events often results in less rainfall than average over parts of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 22 May 2018).

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 24 May 2018 by 45 gigalitres (GL) to 11,119 GL and are at 49 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4,161 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 24 May 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin decreased in the week ending 24 May 2018 to $153 per ML. This is a decrease of $10 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $134 in April across the whole southern MDB, and $32 during the same month last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 24 May 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	23-May	US$/A$	0.75	0.75	0%	0.75	0%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	22-May	US$/t	246	242	2%	200	23%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	23-May	US$/t	180	180	0%	160	13%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	22-May	US$/t	407	410	<1%	431	-6%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	23-May	USc/lb	94.2	93.0	1%	88.5	6%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	23-May	USc/lb	11.8	11.4	4%	16.1	-27%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	17-May	Ac/kg clean	1,943	1,891	3%	1,522	28%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	18-May	Ac/kg clean	2,080	2,018	3%	1,535	36%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	22-May	A$/t	283	271	4%	194	46%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	22-May	A$/t	376	315	19%	235	60%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	22-May	A$/t	350	322	9%	214	64%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	14-May	A$/t	515	517	<1%	520	<1%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	22-May	A$/t	365	395	-8%	272	34%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	17-May	Ac/kg cwt	491	484	1%	650	-24%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic	18-May	Ac/kg cwt	486	460	6%	544	-11%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	17-May	Ac/kg cwt	617	598	3%	651	-5%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	11-May	Ac/kg cwt	260	260	0%	302	-14%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)	21-May	Ac/kg cwt	484	484	0%	656	-26%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	12-May	Ac/kg lwt	280	280	0%	320	-13%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	14-May	$/head	95	na	na	116	-18%	chart
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	15-May	US$/t	3,226	3,231	<1%	3,312	-3%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	15-May	US$/t	2,047	1,999	2%	1,998	2%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	15-May	US$/t	4,205	4,024	4%	3,726	13%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	15-May	US$/t	6,354	6,032	5%	6,631	-4%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution