Weekly update - 26 April 2018

During the week ending 25 April 2018 rainfall was mainly restricted to eastern Australia and isolated parts of northern, and south-western Australia. Little to no rainfall was received across the remainder of the country. Rainfall totals up to 50 millimetres were recorded across the Top End in the Northern Territory, and parts of south-eastern Queensland. Similar totals were recorded in north-eastern New South Wales and south-western Western Australia. The highest recorded weekly total was 128 millimetres at Evans Head, south of Lismore in northern New South Wales.

Rainfall - week ending 25 April 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/04/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperatures continued to be warmer than average during the week ending 24 April 2018. Maximum temperatures were between 2°C to 6°C above average across most of the country, with higher anomalies (6°C to 8°C) in South Australia and western parts of New South Wales and Victoria. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average in South Australia and adjacent parts of Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory. They were close to average for the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 24 April 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 24/04/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 24 April 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 24/04/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of major climate drivers, with no strong shift towards wetter or drier conditions across most of Australia. Above average sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea, associated with lower pressures over eastern Australia, may be increasing the chance of easterly winds bringing above average rainfall in the far southeast of the country. Likewise, this pattern may also reduce the strength of the westerly winds that would typically bring moisture into other parts of southern Australia.

A drier than average May is more likely for parts of Western Australia and isolated areas in the Northern Territory, central Queensland, and north-eastern New South Wales. Parts of far northern Queensland and the Northern Territory have higher chances of exceeding the median rainfall. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during May (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 April 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall May 2018

The rainfall outlook for May to July indicates an increased chance of exceeding the median across parts of northern Australia, and isolated parts of south-eastern Australia. Rainfall is more likely to be below the median in western parts of Western Australia and western Victoria. For the rest of Australia there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 April 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall May to July 2018

The maximum temperature outlook for May to July 2018 indicates no strong signal toward either above or below temperatures for most of Australia. Maximum temperatures are more likely to be above average in Victoria, south-eastern New South Wales, south-western and far northern Western Australia, and Tasmania. Minimum temperatures are more likely to be below average in Queensland, and above average in New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and northern and southern parts of Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 April 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature May to July 2018

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature May to July 2018

During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across most of the country. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for isolated areas of the Northern Territory, coastal parts of Queensland and New South Wales, alpine areas of eastern Victoria, and south-western Tasmania.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 26 April to 3 May 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/04/2018

The Bureau of Meteorology report that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with most oceanic and atmospheric indicators at neutral levels. Climate models indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will rise, but are likely to remain within neutral ENSO boundaries for the remainder of autumn and into winter. By September, two of the eight models suggest ocean temperatures may approach El Niño thresholds.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Most models indicate a neutral IOD is likely for autumn and early winter. However, three of six models indicate a negative IOD is possible during winter. Typically, winter–spring rainfall is above average over southern Australia during negative IOD events.

Climate model accuracy for ENSO and IOD is lower during autumn than at other times of the year and current model outlooks should be viewed with some caution (Bureau of Meteorology, ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 24 April 2018).

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 26 April 2018 by 148 gigalitres (GL) to 11,123 GL and are at 49 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,941 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 26 April 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased in the week ending 26 April 2018 to $139 per ML. This is an increase of $5 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $117 in March across the whole southern MDB, and $42 during the same month last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 26 April 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	25-Apr	US$/A$	0.77	0.77	-1%	0.75	3%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	24-Apr	US$/t	238	245	<1%	186	28%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	25-Apr	US$/t	175	176	-2%	156	12%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga	24-Apr	US$/t	410	427	-3%	441	-7%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	25-Apr	USc/lb	92.3	91.7	<1%	88.4	4%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	25-Apr	USc/lb	11.3	12.3	-5%	16.1	-30%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	19-Apr	Ac/kg clean	1,825	1,772	3%	1,512	30%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	20-Apr	Ac/kg clean	1,884	1,934	3%	1,532	26%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	24-Apr	A$/t	244	242	<1%	185	32%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	11-Apr	A$/t	280	278	<1%	211	33%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	11-Apr	A$/t	284	279	2%	193	47%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	23-Apr	A$/t	510	502	2%	510	0%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	11-Apr	A$/t	360	350	3%	249	45%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	19-Apr	Ac/kg cwt	496	523	-5%	651	-24%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	20-Apr	Ac/kg cwt	448	438	2%	517	-13%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	19-Apr	Ac/kg cwt	571	580	-2%	667	-14%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	06-Apr	Ac/kg cwt	269	269	0%	318	-15%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	16-Apr	Ac/kg cwt	468	472	<1%	653	-28%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	14-Apr	Ac/kg lwt	285	310	-8%	340	-16%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	16-Apr	$/head	119	124	-4%	128	-7%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	17-Apr	US$/t	3,311	3,278	1%	2,998	10%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	17-Apr	US$/t	1,913	1,849	3%	2,044	-6%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	17-Apr	US$/t	3,855	3,679	5%	3,462	11%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	17-Apr	US$/t	6,120	5,806	5%	5,930	3%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution