Weekly update - 26 October 2017

During the week ending 25 October 2017 rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded across most of eastern Australia. Similar totals were recorded in southern, central and northern Western Australia, northern and eastern parts of the Northern Territory, and in eastern South Australia. Higher totals (between 50 and 150 millimetres) were recorded in isolated parts of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 359 millimetres at Babinda, south of Cairns in Queensland.

Rainfall - week ending 25 October 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/10/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

During the week ending 24 October 2017 maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across western, central and parts of south-eastern Australia. They were 4°C to 6°C above average in northern parts of Western Australia. Maximum temperatures were below average (-2°C to -4°C) in eastern Queensland and far north-eastern New South Wales. Minimum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across western, southern and parts of south-eastern Australia. They were 4°C to 8°C above average in central Western Australia and close to average for the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 24 October 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 24/10/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 24 October 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 24/10/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

This outlook is being influenced by a number of competing climate drivers. The Pacific Ocean is likely to continue cooling towards La Niña levels over the coming months. However, the ocean warmth that typically appears to the north of Australia and in the eastern Indian Ocean with La Niña is unlikely to develop. In addition, waters in the eastern Indian Ocean are currently cooler than normal. This means that Australia is unlikely to receive the widespread heavy rainfall that is typical of La Niña events. Ocean temperatures around Australia are forecast to be near average during the November to January period, which is also providing little influence towards wetter or drier conditions.

Rainfall during November 2017 is more likely to be below average across much of western and southern Australia. The remainder of Australia has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average November (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 October 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2017

The rainfall outlook for November 2017 to January 2018 indicates roughly equal chances for above or below average rainfall during this period across most of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 October 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2017 to January 2018

The temperature outlook for November 2017 to January 2018 indicates that there are higher chances of above average maximum and minimum temperatures for most of the country. Chances of warmer than average temperatures are close to 50 per cent for southern Western Australia, south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 October 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature November 2017 to January 2018

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature November 2017 to January 2018

The northern rainfall onset date occurs when the rainfall total in a particular region reaches 50 millimetres or more from 1 September onwards. It is considered to be approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth after the dry season.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the northern rainfall onset has occurred up to four weeks earlier than normal in some areas. The first useful rainfall normally arrives by late October or early November in northern coastal Queensland, the western Top End and parts of central Australia. This year, the northern rainfall onset occurred in these areas at the start of October. This early onset is likely to boost soil moisture levels and replenish dams and on-farm water storages and will benefit summer grown crops and pasture growth.

The Bureau of Meteorology note that the onset timing is greatly affected by the phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. During La Niña years, the northern rainfall onset tends to be earlier than usual. Although a formal La Niña event has not been declared, climate models and oceanic and atmospheric indicators suggest that La Niña is likely to develop in late 2017. For further information go to Northern Rainfall Onset for the 2017 to 2018 season

Rainfall is forecast for south-eastern Australia and isolated parts of northern and eastern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected in south-eastern New South Wales, across most of Victoria and Tasmania, northern Western Australia and western parts of the Top End. Totals between 5 and 25 millimetres are forecast for isolated parts of eastern and northern Queensland, south-western Western Australia, eastern South Australia and central parts of the Northern Territory. Little to no rainfall is forecast for the remainder of the country.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 26 October to 2 November 2017

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/10/2017

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, the Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO outlook has changed to ‘La Niña Watch’ following cooling in the topical Pacific, changes to atmospheric indicators and model outlooks. The chance of La Niña forming in late 2017 is at least 50 per cent, double the normal likelihood. La Niña events typically bring above average rainfall to eastern Australia during late spring and summer. However, current climate outlooks do not favour widespread rainfall during this period due to the competing influence of other climate drivers (warm waters to the north of Australia, and cooler waters in the eastern Indian Ocean). If La Niña does occur this year, it is likely to be short and weak, as sea surface temperatures are forecast to warm again in early 2018.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and model consensus suggests that this will continue until the end of 2017. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April due to the influence of the monsoon trough over the tropical Indian Ocean (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 24 October 2017).

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 26 October 2017 by 115 gigalitres (GL) to 16,304 GL and are at 72 per cent of total capacity. This is 10 percentage points or 2,304 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 26 October 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class

Selected water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin declined in the week of 26 October 2017 to $132 per ML. This is a decrease of $9 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $122 in September across the whole southern MDB, and $97 during the same time last year.

Unusually the Murrumbidgee trade restriction has come into effect preventing water trading into the Murrumbidgee Valley. In previous years this restriction has normally prevented water from leaving the valley. Similar to previous trade closures, several large transfers were the final trades permitted. For trade into the Murrumbidgee to reopen, 14.3 GL of water will need to be traded out (as of 9:00am on 25 October, 2017).

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 26 October 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	25-Oct	US$/A$	0.78	0.78	0%	0.76	3%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	24-Oct	US$/t	212	212	0%	195	9%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	25-Oct	US$/t	149	149	0%	153	-3%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga	24-Oct	US$/t	429	424	1%	436	-2%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	25-Oct	USc/lb	78.8	78.1	<1%	78.8	0%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	25-Oct	USc/lb	14.1	14.2	<1%	22.8	-38%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	19-Oct	Ac/kg clean	1,568	1,566	<1%	1,331	18%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	20-Oct	Ac/kg clean	1,614	1,621	<1%	1,375	17%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	24-Oct	A$/t	215	240	-11%	195	10%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	25-Oct	A$/t	258	273	-5%	251	3%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	25-Oct	A$/t	256	256	0%	186	38%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	23-Oct	A$/t	533	538	<1%	536	<1%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	25-Oct	A$/t	314	314	0%	231	36%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	19-Oct	Ac/kg cwt	553	538	3%	706	-22%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	20-Oct	Ac/kg cwt	417	388	7%	421	<1%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	19-Oct	Ac/kg cwt	629	621	1%	551	14%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	13-Oct	Ac/kg cwt	277	277	0%	378	-27%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	23-Oct	Ac/kg cwt	462	462	0%	587	-21%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	21-Oct	Ac/kg lwt	330	320	3%	na	na	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	23-Oct	$/head	124	114	9%	76	63%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	17-Oct	US$/t	3,014	3,037	<1%	2,760	9%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	17-Oct	US$/t	1,797	1,895	-5%	2,204	-18%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	17-Oct	US$/t	4,107	4,109	<1%	3,290	25%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	17-Oct	US$/t	6,841	6,504	5%	5,007	37%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution