Weekly update - 27 February 2020
Key issues
- Most of the rainfall during the week ending 26 February 2020 rainfall was recorded across parts of western and north-eastern Australia. These showers and thunderstorms were generated by several persistent low pressure troughs drawing in humid air from the northern and east of Australia.
- Ex-tropical cyclone Esther made landfall as a category one system on Monday 24 February bringing rainfall totals in excess of 200 millimetres to parts of northern Queensland and the Northern Territory.
- In Australia’s summer cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 200 millimetres were recorded across much of Queensland and lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across much of northern New South Wales during the week ending 26 February 2020.
- The rainfall outlook for March to May 2020 suggests that across most of Australia, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months. Parts of south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales are slightly more likely to be drier than average. In contrast, parts of far northern Australia and south-western Western Australia are slightly more likely to be wetter than average
- Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 25 and 400 millimetres are forecast for areas of northern and central Australia. These falls are associated with Ex-tropical cyclone Esther that is tracking an unpredictable path across northern Australia and could loop towards central Australia over the next 8 days. Lighter falls of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of western and eastern New South Wales, large areas of Queensland, Victoria and the west of Western Australia.
- Across summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 10 millimetres is expected across much of Queensland and northern New South Wales during the next 8 days.
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 19 February 2020 and 26 February 2020 by 66 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 7,872 GL which represents 31 per cent of total capacity.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $635 per ML on 20 February 2020 to $660 per ML on 27 February 2020.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 26 February 2020 rainfall was primarily recorded across parts of western and north-eastern Australia. These showers and thunderstorms were generated by several persistent low pressure troughs drawing in humid air from the northern and east of Australia.
Ex-tropical cyclone Esther made landfall as a category one system on Monday 24 February bringing rainfall totals in excess of 200 millimetres to parts of northern Queensland and the Northern Territory. This system weakened and transitioned to a tropical low and continues to move west through the Northern Territory.
Thunderstorms also brought falls in excess of 150 millimetres to areas of southern Queensland. The township of St George in Queensland's southern inland is at risk of flooding when the Balonne River reaches its expected major peak later today. The town's residents have been told to prepare for flooding, with the river forecast to reach around 12 metres this afternoon. More than 150,000 megalitres of water was flowing through the local weir yesterday, with all 13 gates open at E.J. Beardmore Dam. Around 200,000 megalitres is expected to be released today.
In Australia’s summer cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 200 millimetres were recorded across much of Queensland and lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across much of northern New South Wales during the week ending 26 February 2020.
Rainfall for the week ending 26 February 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/2/2020
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.
Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 25 February 2020, maximum and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across parts of northern and central Australia. In contrast, maximum and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C below average across parts of southern Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 25 February 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/02/2020
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 25 February 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/02/2020
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.
National Climate Outlook
The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral and expected to remain neutral until at least the end of autumn 2020. Likewise, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are currently neutral and expected to remain neutral in the coming weeks.
Abnormally warm sea surface temperatures forecast in the western tropical Pacific Ocean may draw moisture away from Australia and reduce the chance of wetter than average conditions in eastern Australia.
The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that during March 2020 there is no strong shift towards wetter or drier than average rainfall for much of Australia. Parts of the north-west of Western Australia are slightly more likely to be drier than average during March. In contrast, parts of far tropical north and southern Australia are slightly more likely to be wetter than average (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 20 February 2020).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall March 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/02/2020
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are given as a probability (or chance) of exceeding a specified rainfall or temperature threshold. In the case of the Bureau’s rainfall outlook, it is represented as the chance of rainfall being above median, expressed as a percentage. While this probabilistic forecast indicates that there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months for much of Australia, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to ease current long-term rainfall deficiencies.
The rainfall outlook for March to May 2020 suggests that across most of Australia, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months. Parts of south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales are slightly more likely to be drier than average. In contrast, parts of far northern Australia and south-western Western Australia are slightly more likely to be wetter than average (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 20 February 2019).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall March to May 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/02/2020
There is a significant chance that areas unlikely to exceed median rainfall will receive rainfall sufficient to sustain crop and pasture production. In summer cropping regions, for example, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 25 and 100 millimetres across northern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland between March and May 2020.
Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring March to May 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/02/2020
The temperature outlook for March to May 2020 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of parts of southern Australia where the chances of warmer or cooler daytime temperatures are roughly equal. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 20 February 2020).
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature March to May 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/02/2020
There is a significant chance that areas unlikely to exceed median rainfall will receive rainfall sufficient to sustain crop and pasture production. In summer cropping regions, for example, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 25 and 100 millimetres across northern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland between March and May 2020.
Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature March to May 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/02/2020
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 25 and 400 millimetres are forecast for areas of northern and central Australia. These falls are associated with Ex-tropical cyclone Esther that is tracking an unpredictable path across northern Australia and could loop towards central Australia over the next 8 days.
Lighter falls of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of western and eastern New South Wales, large areas of Queensland, Victoria and the west of Western Australia.
These falls will likely promote plant growth across northern and central Australia and continue to build soil moisture across northern and eastern Australia.
In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 10 millimetres is expected across much of Queensland and northern New South Wales during the next 8 days.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 27 February to 5 March 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/02/2020
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Commodities
Current indicators – 27 February 2020
| Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected World Indicator Prices |
||||||||
| Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 26-Feb | US$/A$ | 0.66 | 0.67 | -1% |
0.71 | -7% |
chart |
| Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 25-Feb | US$/t | 228 | 231 | -1% |
225 | 1% |
chart |
| Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 26-Feb | US$/t | 167 | 170 | -2% |
173 | -3% |
chart |
| Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg | 26-Feb | US$/t | 371 | 374 | <1% |
384 | -3% |
chart |
| Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 27-Feb | USc/lb | 77.1 | 77.3 | <1% |
81.0 | -5% |
chart |
| Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 27-Feb | USc/lb | 15.4 | 15.2 | 1% |
13.2 | 17% |
chart |
| Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 20-Feb | Ac/kg clean | 1,581 | 1,568 | <1% |
2,027 | -22% |
chart |
| Wool – Western Market Indicator | 13-Feb | Ac/kg clean | 1,667 | 1,709 | -2% |
2,101 | -21% |
chart |
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
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| Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 04-Feb | A$/t | 335 | 342 | -2% |
349 | -4% |
chart |
| Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 07-Jan | A$/t | 442 | 447 | -1% |
455 | -3% |
chart |
| Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 07-Jan | A$/t | 385 | 382 | <1% |
438 | -12% |
chart |
| Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 07-Jan | A$/t | 467 | 477 | -2% |
432 | 8% |
chart |
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
||||||||
| Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 20-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 702 | 662 | 6% |
450 | 56% |
chart |
| Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic | 20-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 681 | 690 | -1% |
419 | 63% |
chart |
| Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 20-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 911 | 905 | <1% |
665 | 37% |
chart |
| Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 14-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 425 | 429 | <1% |
329 | 29% |
chart |
| Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) | 24-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 893 | 893 | 0% | 588 | 52% |
chart |
| Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 22-Feb | Ac/kg lwt | 360 | 360 | 0% | 340 | 6% |
chart |
| Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 09-Dec | $/head | 105 | 140 | -25% |
108 | -3% |
chart |
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a |
||||||||
| Dairy – Whole milk powder | 18-Feb | US$/t | 2,966 | 3,039 | -2% |
3,022 | -2% |
chart |
| Dairy – Skim milk powder | 18-Feb | US$/t | 2,840 | 2,907 | -2% |
2,580 | 10% |
chart |
| Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 18-Feb | US$/t | 4,526 | 4,302 | 5% |
3,667 | 23% |
chart |
| Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 18-Feb | US$/t | 4,379 | 4,626 | -5% |
5,620 | -22% |
chart |
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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