Weekly update - 27 July 2017

During the week ending 26 July 2017 little to no rainfall was recorded across most of mainland Australia. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in south-eastern South Australia, much of Victoria, alpine regions of New South Wales, and isolated parts of coastal Queensland. Rainfall totals between 5 and 100 millimetres were recorded in south-western Western Australia and Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 202 millimetres at Queenstown, in western Tasmania.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

Rainfall - week ending 26 July 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/07/2017

During the week ending 25 July 2017 maximum temperatures were generally between 2°C and 4°C above average over most of mainland Australia. Parts of Western Australia, South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory recorded maximum temperatures between 4°C and 8°C above average. Minimum temperatures were generally close to average for most of the country. However, isolated parts of most states and territories, except Victoria, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory recorded minimum temperatures between 2°C and 4°C below average. Minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average in south-western and central Western Australia, around the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Cape York Peninsula.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 25 July 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/07/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 25 July 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/07/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the outlook

The current climate outlook is more likely to be affected by localised influences, such as moderate shifts in the location and strength of the sub-tropical ridge and local sea surface temperatures. This is because there is likely to be little influence from major climate drivers, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which are both at neutral levels. Decreased westerly flow is also forecast over southern and south-eastern Australia, which suggests potentially less rain-bearing frontal systems for inland areas. Besides natural climate drivers such as ENSO and IOD, Australian climate patterns are also being influenced by long-term trends of increasing global air and ocean temperatures.

There is strong consensus amongst climate model that neutral ENSO levels will continue for the remainder of 2017. ENSO forecasts typically have high accuracy at this time of year.

Rainfall during August 2017 is more likely to be below average across the southern half of mainland Australia. Parts of southern New South Wales have the highest chances of receiving below average rainfall. The remainder of mainland Australia has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average August. Rainfall is likely to exceed the median in Tasmania during August 2017 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 July 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall August 2017

The rainfall outlook for August to October 2017 indicates that rainfall is more likely to be below average in western, southern and south-eastern Australia. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of receiving above or below average rainfall during this period (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 July 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall August to October 2017

The temperature outlook for August to October 2017 indicates that maximum temperatures are more likely to be above average for most of Australia, with highest chances of above average maximum temperatures in northern and south-eastern Australia.
Minimum temperatures are more likely to be above average for most of Australia, except in north-western Western Australia, where there are equal chances of above or below median minimum temperatures (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 July 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature August to October 2017

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature August to October 2017

Widespread rainfall is forecast for southern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected in south-western Western Australia, southern and eastern South Australia and most of New South Wales. Similar totals are forecast for Victoria and Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast for the remainder of Australia.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 27 July to 3 August 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/07/2017

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 27 July 2017 by 60 gigalitres (GL) to 15,762 GL and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4,038 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 27 July 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin continued to rise in the week up to 27 July 2017 in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern system the increased to $116. This is an increase of $15 or 15 per cent from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $32 in June across the whole southern MDB.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 27 July, 2017.

*South Australian water allocation trade was unavailable at the time of preparation.

Goat price

The Eastern states over the hooks weekly goat price declined 36 cents (5 per cent) to 647 cents a kilogram in the week ending 24 July 2017. Despite this fall, goat meat prices are still 13 per cent higher than at the same time last year. The recent price decline follows a 120 per cent year-on-year increase in slaughter numbers. Goat meat exports have also increased year-on-year reaching 1,144 tonnes in July 2017, 13 per cent higher than the same month in 2016.

Domestic cereals

The domestic sorghum indicator price rose 7 per cent to $304 a tonne in the week ending 19 July 2017—the first time the price has exceeded $300 a tonne since September 2015. This follows all domestic cereal indicator prices moving higher in 2017 as concerns over the dry conditions early in the season weigh on domestic crop prospects.

Figure 1 Domestic cereal prices, 2017 to July

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	26-Jul	US$/A$	0.79	0.78	1%	0.75	5%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	25-Jul	US$/t	226	237	-5%	189	20%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	26-Jul	US$/t	156	157	<1%	161	-3%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	25-Jul	US$/t	415	419	<1%	396	5%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	26-Jul	USc/lb	84.7	83.2	2%	84.0	<1%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	26-Jul	USc/lb	14.3	14.2	<1%	19.5	-27%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	13-Jul	Ac/kg clean	1,522	1,524	<1%	1,311	16%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	14-Jul	Ac/kg clean	1,570	1,561	<1%	1,423	10%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	25-Jul	A$/t	244	256	-5%	232	5%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	19-Jul	A$/t	280	283	-1%	251	12%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	19-Jul	A$/t	253	256	-1%	203	25%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	17-Jul	A$/t	510	518	-2%	490	4%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	19-Jul	A$/t	304	284	7%	229	33%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	20-Jul	Ac/kg cwt	595	598	<1%	656	-9%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	21-Jul	Ac/kg cwt	470	432	9%	408	15%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	20-Jul	Ac/kg cwt	628	605	4%	609	3%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	14-Jun	Ac/kg cwt	275	279	-1%	379	-27%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	24-Jul	Ac/kg cwt	647	683	-5%	574	13%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	20-May	Ac/kg lwt	320	320	0%	280	14%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	17-Jul	$/head	121	104	16%	na	na	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	18-Jul	US$/t	3,114	3,111	<1%	2,079	50%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	18-Jul	US$/t	2,024	2,090	-3%	1,927	5%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	18-Jul	US$/t	4,112	4,051	2%	2,886	42%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	18-Jul	US$/t	6,577	6,596	<1%	3,628	81%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution