Weekly update - 27 September 2018
Key issues
- During the week ending 26 September 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the east of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, eastern Queensland and western Tasmania.
- For cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 5 millimetres were recorded in north-eastern New South Wales, western Victoria, south-eastern Queensland and eastern South Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded during the week ending 26 September 2018.
- For the week ending 25 September 2018, maximum temperatures were generally average across much of the country, the main exception being the south-western of Western Australia which recording maximum temperatures of between 4°C and 10°C above average for this time of year. Minimum temperatures were generally average, with parts south-eastern Australia recording night-time temperatures of 2°C to 6°C below average for this time of year.
- A drier than average October is more likely across much of the central and eastern Australia, and parts of the south-west of Western Australia. Parts of the south-east and far north of the country having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month.
- The climate outlook for October to December 2018 indicates a drier than average three months is more likely for parts of southern and western New South Wales, Victoria, parts of Queensland, eastern and northern South Australia, south-western Western Australia, Tasmania, and parts of the Northern Territory. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for the remainder of Australia.
- During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the southern half of the country.
- In cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres is expected in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. In Queensland, little to no rainfall is forecast in the north, with falls of between 1 and 15 millimetres forecast for central and southern cropping region. In Western Australia falls of between 5 millimetres in the north to 25 millimetres in the south are forecast for the next eight days.
- Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased in the week ending 27 September 2018 to $320 per ML. This is an increase of $9 from the same time last week.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 26 September 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls mainly restricted to the east of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, eastern Queensland and western Tasmania.
Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of south-eastern Queensland and western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 78 millimetres at Caloundra Airport, in the Sunshine Coast region of Queensland.
In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 5 millimetres were recorded for north-eastern New South Wales, western Victoria, south-eastern Queensland and eastern South Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.
Rainfall analysis for the week ending 26 September 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/9/2018
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.
Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 25 September 2018, maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across parts of eastern, western and northern Australia, with much of south-western Western Australia recording maximum temperatures of between 4°C and 10°C above average for this time of year. Generally, average daytime temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally average, with parts south-eastern Australia recording night-time temperatures of 2°C to 6°C below average for this time of year.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 25 September 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/9/2018
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 25 September 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/9/2018
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.
National Climate Outlook
The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.
For further information, go to About the climate outlooks
The current outlook reflects the neutral state of broad-scale climate drivers, such as El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), meaning they are currently having little influence on Australia's climate. However, current observations and model outlooks indicate El Niño and a positive IOD could develop by late spring. Sea surface temperatures to Australia's northwest are average to cooler than average; a pattern which can suppress rainfall over southern and central Australia.
A drier than average October is more likely across much of central and eastern Australia, and parts of the south-west of Western Australia, with parts of the south-east and far north of Australia having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average October (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 September 2018).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall October 2018
The rainfall outlook for October to December 2018 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for parts of southern and western New South Wales, Victoria, parts of Queensland, eastern and northern South Australia, south-western Western Australia, Tasmania, and parts of the Northern Territory. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for much of remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 September 2018).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall October to December 2018
The temperature outlook for October to December 2018 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for Australia. Similarly, night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for most areas, except for parts of north-eastern and southern Australia where there is no strong tendency towards either warmer or cooler than average night-time temperatures (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 September 2018).
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature October to December 2018
Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature October to December 2018
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be mainly restricted to the southern half of the country. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country.
Rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of north-eastern and south-eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria the far south-east of Queensland, south-western Western Australia and western Tasmania.
In cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres is expected in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. In Queensland, little to no rainfall is forecast in the north, with falls of between 1 and 15 millimetres forecast for central and southern cropping region. In Western Australia falls of between 5 millimetres in the north to 25 millimetres in the south are forecast for the next eight days.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 27 September to 4 October 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/9/2018
Commodities
Current indicators – 27 September 2018
| Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected world indicator prices |
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| Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 26-Sep | US$/A$ | 0.73 | 0.72 | 1% |
0.79 | -8% |
chart |
| Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 25-Sep | US$/t | 245 | 238 | 3% |
220 | 11% |
chart |
| Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 26-Sep | US$/t | 154 | 150 | 3% |
148 | 4% |
chart |
| Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga | 25-Sep | US$/t | 434 | 429 | 1% |
433 | <1% |
chart |
| Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 26-Sep | USc/lb | 88.5 | 90.7 | -2% |
79.0 | 12% |
chart |
| Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 26-Sep | USc/lb | 10.5 | 11.0 | -5% |
13.8 | -24% |
chart |
| Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 20-Sep | Ac/kg clean | 2,067 | 2,094 | -1% |
1,525 | 36% |
chart |
| Wool – Western Market Indicator | 21-Sep | Ac/kg clean | 2,222 | 2,256 | -2% |
1,572 | 41% |
chart |
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
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| Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 25-Sep | A$/t | 365 | 367 | -1% |
228 | 60% |
chart |
| Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 26-Sep | A$/t | 430 | 430 | 0% | 273 | 58% |
chart |
| Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 26-Sep | A$/t | 410 | 410 | 0% | 256 | 60% |
chart |
| Canola – Portland, Vic. | 24-Sep | A$/t | 598 | 580 | 3% |
508 | 18% |
chart |
| Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 26-Sep | A$/t | 405 | 405 | 0% | 319 | 27% |
chart |
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
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| Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 20-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 501 | 496 | 1% |
517 | -3% |
chart |
| Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic | 21-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 484 | 481 | <1% |
393 | 23% |
chart |
| Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 20-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 773 | 792 | -2% |
598 | 29% |
chart |
| Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 14-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 250 | 249 | <1% |
283 | -12% |
chart |
| Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg) | 24-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 540 | 540 | 0% | 466 | 16% |
chart |
| Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 22-Sep | Ac/kg lwt | 300 | 300 | 0% | 330 | -9% |
chart |
| Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 10-Sep | $/head | 111 | na | na | 113 | -2% |
chart |
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa |
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| Dairy – Whole milk powder | 18-Sep | US$/t | 2,768 | 2,821 | -2% |
3,122 | -11% |
chart |
| Dairy – Skim milk powder | 18-Sep | US$/t | 1,980 | 2,005 | -1% |
1,920 | 3% |
chart |
| Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 18-Sep | US$/t | 3,503 | 3,631 | -4% |
4,032 | -13% |
chart |
| Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 18-Sep | US$/t | 5,294 | 5,316 | <1% |
6,764 | -22% |
chart |
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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