Weekly update - 28 February 2019

During the week ending 27 February 2019 rainfall was recorded across large areas of northern Australia, as well as isolated parts of south-eastern Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of northern and western Queensland, the north of the Northern Territory, northern Western Australia and the east coast of New South Wales. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of tropical northern Australia.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 25 millimetres was recorded across parts of the northern growing regions in Queensland and New South Wales during the week ending 27 February 2019. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining summer cropping regions in Queensland and New South Wales.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 27 February 2019

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/02/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

For the week ending 26 February 2019, maximum temperatures were generally 2°C to 10°C above average across most of western and northern Australia, and part of eastern Australia. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across part of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Average (-2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 February 2019

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/02/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 February 2019

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/02/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average and there is a reasonable chance that El Niño will develop by the end of autumn 2019. An El Niño typically results in warmer and drier than usual conditions, and a later autumn break for southern and eastern Australia, and this is influencing this latest climate outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Other climate influences relevant to this latest outlook relate to temperature of the oceans surrounding Australia. In the Indian Ocean, the central and western tropics are warmer than normal and the waters off Western Australia are cooler than average. This pattern tends to move the focus of rainfall away from Australia, and reduces the amount of moisture in the air that travels over western and southern Australia. Higher than normal air pressures are likely over eastern Queensland and the Coral Sea during autumn, reducing the chance of rainfall in much of eastern Australia. 

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that a drier than average March is more likely for much of Queensland, New South Wales, the Northern Territory, northern Victoria, eastern and northern South Australia and north-eastern Western Australia. Parts of north-eastern and southern Western Australia have an increased chance of being wetter than usual. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average March (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 February 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall March 2018

 

The rainfall outlook for March to May 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for much of the eastern half of Australia and the Northern Territory excluding the far north, as well as the eastern half of South Australia and parts of north-eastern Western Australia. In contrast, parts of inland Western Australia have an increased chance of being wetter than usual. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 February 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall March to May 2019

 

The temperature outlook for March to May 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of parts of north-eastern Queensland, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 February 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature March to May 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature March to May 2019

 

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across all states and territories, with the heaviest falls forecast for Tasmania, the far north and the eastern coast of Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for western and northern Tasmania, isolated parts of north-eastern New South Wales, parts of eastern Victoria, the east coast and far north of Queensland, the north of the Northern Territory and far north of Western Australia. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for isolated areas of the far north of the Northern Territory and north-eastern Queensland.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres is expected across northern and eastern cropping areas of Queensland. Little to no rainfall is expected across other summer cropping regions of Queensland and New South Wales.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 28 February to 7 March 2019

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/02/2019

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	27-Feb	US$/A$	0.71	0.71	0%	0.78	-9%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	26-Feb	US$/t	225	235	-4%	242	-7%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	27-Feb	US$/t	173	172	<1%	169	2%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	26-Feb	US$/t	413	416	<1%	436	-5%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	27-Feb	USc/lb	81.0	80.0	1%	90.6	-11%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	27-Feb	USc/lb	13.2	13.0	2%	13.5	-2%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	21-Feb	Ac/kg clean	2,027	1,968	3%	1,820	11%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	22-Feb	Ac/kg clean	2,161	2,130	1%	1,895	14%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	26-Feb	A$/t	290	326	-11%	239	21%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	27-Feb	A$/t	420	435	-3%	275	53%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	27-Feb	A$/t	370	370	0%	274	35%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	29-Oct	A$/t	597	na	na	536	11%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	27-Feb	A$/t	380	375	1%	410	-7%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	21-Feb	Ac/kg cwt	450	460	-2%	521	-14%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic	22-Feb	Ac/kg cwt	419	393	7%	387	8%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	21-Feb	Ac/kg cwt	665	643	3%	619	7%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	15-Feb	Ac/kg cwt	329	328	<1%	277	19%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)	25-Feb	Ac/kg cwt	588	588	0%	466	26%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	23-Feb	Ac/kg lwt	340	340	0%	320	6%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	25-Feb	$/head	105	127	-17%	125	-16%	chart
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a
Dairy – Whole milk powder	20-Feb	US$/t	3,022	3,027	<1%	3,246	-7%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	20-Feb	US$/t	2,580	2,534	2%	1,832	41%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	20-Feb	US$/t	3,667	3,565	3%	3,686	<1%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	20-Feb	US$/t	5,620	5,579	<1%	6,458	-13%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution