Weekly update - 28 November 2019
Key issues
- During the week ending 27 November 2019 rainfall was restricted to scattered areas of southern, eastern and northern Australia.
- Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of northern New South Wales and south-western Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland, and cropping regions in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
- A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and periods of negative Southern Annual Mode (SAM) continue to influence Australia's weather, likely contributing to the below average rainfall, above average temperatures and the increased bushfire activity experienced in spring.
- IOD and SAM are expected to continue to influence Australian climate during December, with a warmer and drier than average outlook for December, but weaken as an influences on the weather from January 2020.
- The rainfall outlook for December 2019 to February 2020 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across most of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average December to February is more likely for the north-west of Western Australia.
- Over the next eight days, rainfall is likely to be restricted to parts of south-eastern and the far north of Australia.
- Across Australia’s cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates that 5 and 15 millimetres are expected across parts of northern and southern New South Wales, Victoria and southern Queensland. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions.
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 20 November and 27 November 2019 by 142 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 9,538 GL which represents 38 per cent of total capacity. This is 25 percentage points or 3,139 GL less than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray Below the Barmah Choke decreased from $925 per ML on 21 November 2019 to $870 per ML on 28 November 2019.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 27 November 2019 rainfall was restricted to scattered areas of southern, eastern and northern Australia.
Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of northern New South Wales and south-western Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland, and cropping regions in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
Rainfall for the week ending 27 November 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/11/2019
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.
Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 26 November 2019, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 10°C above average across most of Australia. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across New South Wales and large areas of southern Queensland, Western Australia and central areas of the Northern Territory. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 November 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/11/2019
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 November 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/11/2019
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.
National Climate Outlook
The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.
For further information, go to About the climate outlooks
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral and expected to remain neutral until at least early 2020. A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and periods of negative Southern Annual Mode (SAM) continue to influence Australia's weather, likely contributing to the below average rainfall, above average temperatures and the increased bushfire activity experienced in spring. The IOD and SAM are expected to continue to influence Australian climate during December, with a warmer and drier than average outlook for December, but weaken as an influences on the weather from January 2020.
The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average December is more likely for most of the country. In contrast, a wetter than average December is more likely across parts of western Tasmania and the north-west of Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 November 2019).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2019
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are given as a probability (or chance) of exceeding a specified rainfall or temperature threshold. In the case of the Bureau’s rainfall outlook, it is represented as the chance of rainfall being above median, expressed as a percentage. While this probabilistic forecast indicates that there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months for much of Australia, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to ease current long-term deficiencies.
The rainfall outlook for December 2019 to February 2020 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across most of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average December to February is more likely for the north-west of Western Australia. Across remainder of Australia, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 November 2019).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2019 to February 2020
The temperature outlook for December 2019 to February 2020 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia, with the exception of most of Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and Tasmania where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 November 2019).
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature December 2019 to February 2020
Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature December 2019 to February 2020
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of south-eastern and the far north of Australia. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of eastern Victoria, the far north of the Northern Territory and Queensland, and western Tasmania.
In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 15 millimetres are expected across parts of northern and southern New South Wales, Victoria and southern Queensland. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 28 November to 5 December 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/11/2019
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Commodities
Current indicators – 28 November 2019
| Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected World Indicator Prices |
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| Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 27-Nov | US$/A$ | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0% | 0.72 | -6% |
chart |
| Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 26-Nov | US$/t | 220 | 217 | 1% |
228 | -4% |
chart |
| Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 27-Nov | US$/t | 164 | 165 | <1% |
158 | 4% |
chart |
| Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg | 26-Nov | US$/t | 423 | 423 | 0% | 423 | 0% | chart |
| Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 27-Nov | USc/lb | 75.6 | 74.9 | <1% |
86.2 | -13% |
chart |
| Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 27-Nov | USc/lb | 12.7 | 12.8 | <1% |
12.4 | 2% |
chart |
| Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 21-Nov | Ac/kg clean | 1,555 | 1,574 | -1% |
1,858 | -16% |
chart |
| Wool – Western Market Indicator | 22-Nov | Ac/kg clean | 1,655 | 1,677 | -1% |
2,009 | -18% |
chart |
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
||||||||
| Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 26-Nov | A$/t | 299 | 292 | 2% |
357 | -16% |
chart |
| Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 27-Nov | A$/t | 380 | 380 | 0% | - | - | chart |
| Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 27-Nov | A$/t | 357 | 360 | <1% |
435 | -18% |
chart |
| Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 27-Nov | A$/t | 390 | 385 | 1% |
410 | -5% |
chart |
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
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| Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 21-Nov | Ac/kg cwt | 513 | 517 | <1% |
528 | -3% |
chart |
| Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic | 22-Nov | Ac/kg cwt | 625 | 616 | 1% |
412 | 52% |
chart |
| Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 21-Nov | Ac/kg cwt | 718 | 744 | -3% |
693 | 4% |
chart |
| Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 15-Nov | Ac/kg cwt | 411 | 411 | 0% | 296 | 39% |
chart |
| Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) | 25-Nov | Ac/kg cwt | 824 | 852 | -3% |
548 | 50% |
chart |
| Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 23-Nov | Ac/kg lwt | 315 | 315 | 0% | 325 | -3% |
chart |
| Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 25-Nov | $/head | 99 | 121 | 18% |
chart | ||
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a |
||||||||
| Dairy – Whole milk powder | 19-Nov | US$/t | 3,321 | 3,254 | 2% |
2,599 | 28% |
chart |
| Dairy – Skim milk powder | 19-Nov | US$/t | 3,017 | 2,924 | 3% |
1,965 | 54% |
chart |
| Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 19-Nov | US$/t | 3,701 | 3,609 | 3% |
3,252 | 14% |
chart |
| Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 19-Nov | US$/t | 5,108 | 5,191 | -2% |
4,577 | 12% |
chart |
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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