Weekly update - 29 March 2018

During the week ending 28 March 2018 widespread rainfall was recorded in north-eastern and south-eastern Australia. Tropical Cyclone Nora and an associated monsoon trough brought heavy rainfall and flooding to northern Queensland. Rainfall totals in excess of 400 millimetres were recorded along the north tropical coast from Ingham to Cooktown, and further west around Normanton. The rain is likely to provide useful inflows to on-farm storages and increase pasture production, benefiting northern graziers as the end of the northern wet season approaches.

Elsewhere, a low pressure trough brought totals exceeding 200 millimetres to north-eastern New South Wales, resulting in flash flooding in some areas. Rainfall totals between 25 and 100 millimetres were recorded in parts of central, south-eastern and western Queensland, western and south-eastern New South Wales, and Tasmania. Similar totals were recorded across most of Victoria except the north-west, northern parts of the Kimberley, and northern and eastern parts of the Northern Territory. The highest recorded weekly total was 792 millimetres at Tully Sugar Mill, south of Cairns in Queensland.

Rainfall - week ending 28 March 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/03/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

For the week ending 27 March 2018, maximum temperatures ranged between 2°C to 6°C below average across northern Queensland and south-eastern New South Wales. They were 2°C to 6°C above average in Western Australia and the western half of the Northern Territory. Minimum temperatures were close to average for most of the country, with the exception of parts of Western Australia where they were 2°C to 6°C above average.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 27 March 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/03/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 27 March 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/03/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of most major climate drivers, with no strong shift towards wetter or drier conditions across most of Australia. The La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean has ended, and neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions prevail. A neutral ENSO state is expected to persist through the forecast period.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also in a neutral state, with forecasts suggesting it will remain neutral until at least the end of May 2018. For June, the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate model suggests an increased likelihood of a negative IOD event. A negative IOD typically means a wetter than average winter and spring for southern Australia. However, forecast accuracy for the IOD is low during the autumn compared to other times of the year, and this outlook should be viewed with some caution.

A wetter than average April is more likely for parts of northern and eastern Queensland and parts of the Top End. Chances of exceeding the median rainfall are lower in central and south-western Western Australia, central Northern Territory, and the Eyre Peninsula region of South Australia.  Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during April (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 March 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall April 2018

The rainfall outlook for April to June 2018 indicates no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for most of Australia. Eastern Victoria, south-eastern New South Wales, Tasmania and northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory have a higher chance of exceeding the median rainfall during this period (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 March 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall April to June 2018

The temperature outlook for April to June 2018 indicates that maximum temperatures are more likely to be below average in northern parts of Queensland and the Top End, Northern Territory. Maximum temperatures are more likely to exceed the median in Tasmania, southern parts of Victoria and northern parts of the Kimberley, Western Australia. Minimum temperatures are more likely to be below average in Queensland, and northern and eastern parts of the Northern Territory and above average in southern Victoria and Tasmania (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 March 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature April to June 2018

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature April to June 2018

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across parts of western, north-eastern and eastern Australia, and Tasmania, with little to no rainfall forecast for the rest of the country. Parts of north-eastern Queensland may receive between 100 and 200 millimetres of rain, as Ex-tropical Cyclone Iris approaches the coast. Elsewhere, totals between 25 and 50 millimetres are predicted in far northern Queensland, isolated parts of north-eastern New South Wales, south-western Tasmania and western parts of the Top End, Northern Territory.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 29 March to 5 April 2018

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/03/2018

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 29 March 2018 by 181 gigalitres (GL) to 11,743 GL and are at 52 per cent of total capacity. This is 16 percentage points or 3,602 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 29 March 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin declined in the week ending 29 March 2018 to $119 per ML. This is a decrease of $3 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $105 in February across the whole southern MDB, and $42 during the same month last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 29 March 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	28-Mar	US$/A$	0.77	0.78	-1%	0.76	1%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	27-Mar	US$/t	234	244	-4%	191	23%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	28-Mar	US$/t	170	174	-2%	156	9%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga	27-Mar	US$/t	426	425	<1%	440	-3%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	28-Mar	USc/lb	91.4	92.2	<1%	86.9	5%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	28-Mar	USc/lb	12.5	12.7	-2%	17.4	-28%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	29-Mar	Ac/kg clean	1,772	1,778	<1%	1,502	18%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	23-Mar	Ac/kg clean	1,869	1,834	2%	1,534	22%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	27-Mar	A$/t	240	240	0%	184	30%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	28-Mar	A$/t	278	278	0%	206	35%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	28-Mar	A$/t	279	279	0%	190	47%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	19-Mar	A$/t	492	497	-1%	510	-4%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	28-Mar	A$/t	350	350	0%	244	43%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	22-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	544	562	-3%	622	-13%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	23-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	455	421	8%	467	-3%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	22-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	619	607	2%	632	-2%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	16-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	273	275	<1%	337	-19%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	19-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	468	468	0%	651	-28%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	24-Mar	Ac/kg lwt	310	320	-3%	340	-9%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	26-Mar	$/head	126	121	4%	113	12%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	20-Mar	US$/t	3,226	3,232	<1%	2,855	13%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	20-Mar	US$/t	1,887	2,051	-8%	1,948	-3%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	20-Mar	US$/t	3,609	3,759	-4%	3,406	6%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	20-Mar	US$/t	6,249	6,245	<1%	5,799	8%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution