Weekly update - 30 August 2018

During the week ending 29 August 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the east, and far south and west of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across north-eastern New South Wales, the far east of Victoria, south-eastern Queensland, the far southwest of South Australia, south-western Western Australia and western Tasmania.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across isolated areas of southern Queensland. The highest recorded weekly total was 95 millimetres at Warrie Station, in the Maranoa region of Queensland.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across northern New South Wales, and central and southern Queensland. For cropping regions in South Australia, weekly rainfall totals of between 1 to 15 millimetres were recorded on the Eyre Peninsula. In Western Australian cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals ranged from 1 to 25 millimetres. Little to no rainfall was recorded in cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and eastern South Australia.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 29 August 2018

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/8/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

For the week ending 28 August 2018, maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 6°C) across parts of eastern and central Australia, with generally average daytime temperatures across the remainder of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally average, with parts of Queensland, northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and south-eastern Australia recording night-time temperatures of 2°C to 6°C below average for this time of year.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 28 August 2018

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/8/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 28 August 2018

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/8/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of broad-scale climate drivers, such as El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), meaning they are currently having little influence on Australia's climate. However, current observations and model outlooks indicate El Niño and a positive IOD could develop in spring. The latest model run from the Bureau of Meteorology’s operational climate model also suggests that sea surface temperatures will continue to be cooler than average to Australia's northwest which is likely acting to suppress rainfall over southern and central Australia.

A drier than average September is more likely across much of the eastern half of mainland Australia, the south-west of Western Australia and the Northern Territory, with parts of the south-west having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average September (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 August 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September 2018

 

The rainfall outlook for spring 2018 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for inland New South Wales (west of the Great Dividing Range), Victoria, parts of western and northern Queensland, South Australia, south-west Western Australia, southern Northern Territory and Tasmania. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for much of remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 August 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September to November 2018

 

The temperature outlook for September to November 2018 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for Australia. Similarly, night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for most areas, except for parts of central and southern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 August 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature September to November 2018

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature September to November 2018

 

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across eastern and southern Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, the far southeast of Queensland, parts of southern South Australia, the far southwest of Western Australia, and western and northern Tasmania. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for isolated areas of north-eastern New South Wales.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia during the next eight days. Heavier falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for cropping regions in eastern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 30 August to 6 September 2018

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/8/2018

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	29-Aug	US$/A$	0.73	0.73	0%	0.79	-8%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	28-Aug	US$/t	243	250	-3%	196	24%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	29-Aug	US$/t	158	163	-3%	143	10%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga	28-Aug	US$/t	438	441	<1%	439	<1%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	29-Aug	USc/lb	92.5	91.9	<1%	79.8	16%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	29-Aug	USc/lb	10.3	10.2	<1%	14.0	-26%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	23-Aug	Ac/kg clean	2,068	2,116	-2%	1,572	32%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	17-Aug	Ac/kg clean	2,279	2,158	6%	1,680	36%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	21-Aug	A$/t	342	359	-5%	210	63%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	29-Aug	A$/t	430	430	0%	242	78%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	29-Aug	A$/t	410	410	0%	231	77%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	27-Aug	A$/t	572	572	0%	507	13%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	29-Aug	A$/t	395	395	3%	299	35%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	23-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	461	451	2%	539	-14%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	24-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	430	407	6%	339	27%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	23-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	843	813	4%	618	36%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	17-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	246	247	<1%	276	-11%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	27-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	568	568	0%	457	24%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	25-Aug	Ac/kg lwt	300	300	0%	330	-9%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	14-May	$/head	95	na	na	116	-18%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	21-Aug	US$/t	2,883	2,958	-3%	3,143	-8%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	21-Aug	US$/t	1,951	1,972	-1%	1,968	<1%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	21-Aug	US$/t	3,484	3,663	-5%	4,005	-13%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	21-Aug	US$/t	5,321	5,709	-7%	6,199	-14%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution