Weekly update - 30 August 2018

​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 29 August 2018 rainfall was recorded across the east, and far south and west of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across north-eastern New South Wales, the far east of Victoria, south-eastern Queensland, the far southwest of South Australia, south-western Western Australia and western Tasmania.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across northern New South Wales, and central and southern Queensland. For cropping regions in South Australia, weekly rainfall totals of between 1 to 15 millimetres were recorded on the Eyre Peninsula. In Western Australian cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals ranged from 1 to 25 millimetres.
  • For the week ending 28 August 2018, maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 6°C) across parts of eastern and central Australia, with generally average daytime temperatures across the remainder of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally average, with parts of northern and south-eastern Australia recording night-time temperatures of 2°C to 6°C below average for this time of year.
  • A drier than average September is more likely across much of the eastern half of mainland Australia, the south-west of Western Australia and the Northern Territory, with parts of the south-west having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month.
  • The climate outlook for Spring 2018 indicates a drier than average three months is more likely for inland New South Wales, Victoria, western and northern Queensland, South Australia, south-west Western Australia, southern Northern Territory and Tasmania. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for the remainder of Australia.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across eastern and southern Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia during the next eight days. Heavier falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for cropping regions in eastern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 30 August 2018 by 36 gigalitres (GL) to 12,346GL and are at 55 per cent of total capacity. This is 19 percentage points or 4,264 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin declined in the week ending 30 August 2018 to $329 per ML. This is a decrease of $6 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 29 August 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the east, and far south and west of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across north-eastern New South Wales, the far east of Victoria, south-eastern Queensland, the far southwest of South Australia, south-western Western Australia and western Tasmania.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across isolated areas of southern Queensland. The highest recorded weekly total was 95 millimetres at Warrie Station, in the Maranoa region of Queensland.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across northern New South Wales, and central and southern Queensland. For cropping regions in South Australia, weekly rainfall totals of between 1 to 15 millimetres were recorded on the Eyre Peninsula. In Western Australian cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals ranged from 1 to 25 millimetres. Little to no rainfall was recorded in cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and eastern South Australia.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 29 August 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/8/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 28 August 2018, maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 6°C) across parts of eastern and central Australia, with generally average daytime temperatures across the remainder of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally average, with parts of Queensland, northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and south-eastern Australia recording night-time temperatures of 2°C to 6°C below average for this time of year.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 28 August 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/8/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 28 August 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/8/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of broad-scale climate drivers, such as El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), meaning they are currently having little influence on Australia's climate. However, current observations and model outlooks indicate El Niño and a positive IOD could develop in spring. The latest model run from the Bureau of Meteorology’s operational climate model also suggests that sea surface temperatures will continue to be cooler than average to Australia's northwest which is likely acting to suppress rainfall over southern and central Australia.

A drier than average September is more likely across much of the eastern half of mainland Australia, the south-west of Western Australia and the Northern Territory, with parts of the south-west having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average September (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 August 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The rainfall outlook for spring 2018 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for inland New South Wales (west of the Great Dividing Range), Victoria, parts of western and northern Queensland, South Australia, south-west Western Australia, southern Northern Territory and Tasmania. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for much of remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 August 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September to November 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The temperature outlook for September to November 2018 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for Australia. Similarly, night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for most areas, except for parts of central and southern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 August 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature September to November 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature September to November 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across eastern and southern Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, the far southeast of Queensland, parts of southern South Australia, the far southwest of Western Australia, and western and northern Tasmania. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for isolated areas of north-eastern New South Wales.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia during the next eight days. Heavier falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for cropping regions in eastern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 30 August to 6 September 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/8/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 30 August 2018

Indicator Week ended Unit Latest price Price week prior Weekly change Price 12 months prior Year on year change Chart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate 29-Aug US$/A$ 0.73 0.73 0% 0.79 -8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf 28-Aug US$/t 243 250 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 196 24%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf 29-Aug US$/t 158 163 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 143 10%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga 28-Aug US$/t 438 441 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 439 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index 29-Aug USc/lb 92.5 91.9 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 79.8 16%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract 29-Aug USc/lb 10.3 10.2 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 14.0 -26%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator 23-Aug Ac/kg clean 2,068 2,116 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 1,572 32%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator 17-Aug Ac/kg clean 2,279 2,158 6%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 1,680 36%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA 21-Aug A$/t 342 359 -5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 210 63%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW 29-Aug A$/t 430 430 0% 242 78%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW 29-Aug A$/t 410 410 0% 231 77%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic. 27-Aug A$/t 572 572 0% 507 13%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW 29-Aug A$/t 395 395 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 299 35%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator 23-Aug Ac/kg cwt 461 451 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 539 -14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic 24-Aug Ac/kg cwt 430 407 6%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 339 27%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator 23-Aug Ac/kg cwt 843 813 4%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 618 36%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers 17-Aug Ac/kg cwt 246 247 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 276 -11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg) 27-Aug Ac/kg cwt 568 568 0% 457 24%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia 25-Aug Ac/kg lwt 300 300 0% 330 -9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East 14-May $/head 95 na na 116 -18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder 21-Aug US$/t 2,883 2,958 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 3,143 -8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder 21-Aug US$/t 1,951 1,972 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 1,968 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese 21-Aug US$/t 3,484 3,663 -5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 4,005 -13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat 21-Aug US$/t 5,321 5,709 -7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 6,199 -14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 13 January 2021
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