Weekly update - 30 November 2017

During the week ending 29 November 2017 rainfall was recorded in all states and territories, although there was little to no rainfall in most of Western Australia aside from the Kimberley and parts of the south coast. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres were observed in northern and eastern Queensland, central and eastern New South Wales and much of Victoria except the north-west.

Similar totals were recorded in northern, central and southern parts of South Australia and isolated areas of southern Western Australia. Rainfall totals between 50 and 100 millimetres were recorded in the Kimberley in Western Australia, northern and eastern parts of the Northern Territory, northern Queensland and scattered areas across south-eastern Australia. Totals exceeding 100 millimetres were observed in parts of the Top End in the Northern Territory including the highest recorded weekly total (179 millimetres) at Snowdrop Creek, north-east of Katherine.

Rainfall - week ending 29 November 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/11/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Unseasonal warmth continued in south-eastern Australia during the week ending 28 November 2017. Maximum temperatures were 6°C to 10°C above average in southern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Melbourne and Hobart set new November records with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 26°C for seven and six days respectively. Elsewhere, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C above average in central and northern New South Wales, southern Queensland and across much of Western Australia. Minimum temperatures followed a similar pattern; 4°C to 8°C above average in south-eastern Australia and 2°C to 4°C above average in parts of Western Australia, South Australia and southern Queensland.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 28 November 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/11/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 28 November 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/11/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the outlooks

The Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO Outlook is at La Niña ALERT, as sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean approach La Niña thresholds. While most international models indicate a weak La Niña event, the majority of models suggest that the typical warming of the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean is not likely to occur. The combination of ocean patterns and a weak La Niña means that Australia does not have significantly increased chances of a wetter and cooler summer.

The wetter signal in December across south-eastern Australia is the result of a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phase, which draws tropical air southwards and increases onshore flow. Positive SAM phases are more likely to occur with La Niña.

Rainfall during December 2017 is more likely to be above average in south-eastern Australia and southern Queensland. Parts of southern Western Australia are more likely to have a drier than average December. The remainder of Australia has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average December (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2017

 

The rainfall outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates higher chances of exceeding the median rainfall in parts of western and south-eastern Australia. There are lower chances of exceeding the median rainfall in far northern Queensland. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during this period (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2017 to February 2018

 

The temperature outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates that there are higher chances of above average maximum and minimum temperatures in parts of southern, central and far northern Australia. Chances of warmer than average temperatures are close to 50 per cent for the rest of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature December 2017 to February 2018

 

The temperature outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates that there are higher chances of above average maximum and minimum temperatures in parts of southern, central and far northern Australia. Chances of warmer than average temperatures are close to 50 per cent for the rest of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature November 2017 to January 2018

 

A slow moving low pressure system and upper level trough are expected to generate thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over south-eastern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 25 and 100 millimetres are forecast across most of Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania. Higher totals (up to 300 millimetres) are predicted in alpine areas of New South Wales and Victoria. Rainfall totals between 25 and 100 millimetres are also forecast across much of eastern and northern Queensland, northern Western Australia and northern parts of the Northern Territory.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a number of severe weather warnings and initial flood watches associated with this significant thunderstorm and rainfall system that is evolving across southern and eastern Australia with the potential for widespread flooding in parts of Victoria and southern and central New South Wales.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 30 November to 7 December 2017

 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/11/2017

Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 30 November 2017 by 169 gigalitres (GL) to 15,565 GL and are at 69 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,854 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 30 November 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

On 24 November 2017 NSW Department of Primary Industries - Water announced allocation increases of:

• 3.6% for NSW Border Rivers GSB to 14.7%

Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at	30 November 2017		15 November 2017
New South Wales	General security	High security	General security	High security
NSW Murray	35%	97%	35%	97%
NSW Murrumbidgee	33%	95%	33%	95%
NSW Lower Darling	100%	100%	100%	100%
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong	38%	100%	38%	100%
NSW Hunter	100%	100%	100%	100%
NSW Lachlan	2%	100%	2%	100%
NSW Lower Namoi	7%	100%	7%	100%
NSW Upper Namoi	100%	100%	100%	100%
NSW Gwydir	16%	100%	16%	100%
NSW Border Rivers	100%(a)/14.7%(b)	100%	100%(a)/11.1%(b)	100%
NSW Peel	100%	100%	100%	100%
Victoria	Low reliability	High reliability	Low reliability	High reliability
Victoria Murray	0%	100%	0%	100%
Victoria Goulburn	0%	94%	0%	94%
Victoria Campaspe	33%	100%	33%	100%
Victoria Loddon	0%	94%	0%	94%
Victoria Bullarook	100%	100%	100%	100%
Victoria Broken	20%	100%	20%	100%
South Australia		Class 3a/3b		Class 3a/3b
South Australia Murray		100%		100%

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin remained unchanged in the week ending 30 November 2017 at $117 per ML. This contrasts with an average price of $138 in October across the whole southern MDB, and $78 during the same time last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

 

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 30 November 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

	Southern MDB	Victoria Goulburn	SA Murray	NSW Murrumbidgee	Victoria Murray	NSW Murray
Current week: 24/11/17 - 30/11/17	$116.84	$88.58	$142.16	$134.73	$129.96	$128.31
Last week: 17/11/17 - 23/11/17	$117.17	$92.33	$131.67	$149.08	$125.73	$133.55
October 2017	$137.89	$114.28	$176.71	$136.59	$143.89	$148.24
October 2016	$77.61	$88.96	$76.51	$50.38	$103.94	$76.94

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	29-Nov	US$/A$	0.76	0.76	0%	0.74	3%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	28-Nov	US$/t	218	219	<1%	190	15%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	22-Nov	US$/t	150	148	1%	151	<1%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga	28-Nov	US$/t	434	437	<1%	428	1%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	29-Nov	USc/lb	82.0	80.3	2%	80.1	2%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	29-Nov	USc/lb	15.2	15.2	0%	19.8	-23%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	23-Nov	Ac/kg clean	1,669	1,669	<1%	1,363	22%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	24-Nov	Ac/kg clean	1,717	1,717	<1%	1,382	24%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	28-Nov	A$/t	240	234	3%	206	17%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	29-Nov	A$/t	258	253	2%	239	8%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	29-Nov	A$/t	254	251	1%	186	37%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	27-Nov	A$/t	525	544	3%	532	-1%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	29-Nov	A$/t	319	309	3%	243	31%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	30-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	580	577	<1%	645	-10%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	30-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	474	470	<1%	423	12%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	23-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	617	600	3%	531	16%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	17-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	276	276	0%	378	-27%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	27-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	490	486	<1%	611	-20%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	25-Nov	Ac/kg lwt	330	320	3%	360	-8%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	27-Nov	$/head	113	112	<1%	91	24%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	21-Nov	US$/t	2,778	2,852	-3%	3,423	-19%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	21-Nov	US$/t	1,701	1,818	-6%	2,562	-34%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	21-Nov	US$/t	3,831	4,001	-4%	3,697	4%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	21-Nov	US$/t	6,887	6,894	<1%	5,348	29%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution