Weekly update - 31 January 2019

During the week ending 30 January 2019 rainfall was recorded across isolated areas of central Australia, eastern New South Wales and large areas of northern Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of eastern and southern New South Wales, northern Queensland, northern Western Australia and the north of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across vast areas of tropical northern Australia with the arrival of the monsoonal trough.

Monsoonal rain has inundated parts of central and northern Queensland during the last 7 days, pushing dams to capacity as rivers experience major flooding. The southward moving monsoon trough caused widespread falls of between 100 and 300 millimetres between Ingham and Mackay during the 24 hours to 9am on Wednesday 30 January.

One of the heaviest falls in the region during this 24-hour period was 370 millimetres at Paluma, to the north of Townsville. This torrential rain has resulted in Paluma Dam reaching 106 per cent of its capacity at 7am local time on Wednesday. North of Mackay, Sandy Plateau received 375 millimetres during the 24 hours to 9am on Wednesday, which brought their two-day total to an impressive 763 millimetres.

Unsurprisingly, a number of rivers are experiencing major flooding and the Bureau of Meteorology have issued numerous flood watches. A flood watch also remains in place for coastal catchments from Daintree to Mackay, the western Cape York Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Carpentaria catchments.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres was recorded across the eastern and northern growing regions in New South Wales and northern growing regions in Queensland during the week ending 30 January 2019. Little to no rainfall was recorded in other summer cropping regions.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 30 January 2019

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/01/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

For the week ending 29 January 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally well above average across much of the country. Maximum and minimum temperatures were between 2°C to 10°C above average across vast areas of central, southern and eastern Australia. Average (-2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across parts of eastern Queensland, the tropical northern Australia and much of Western Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 29 January 2019

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/01/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 29 January 2019

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/01/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

Although the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are currently neutral, there is still a chance of El Niño developing during autumn 2019. An El Niño typically results in warmer and drier than usual conditions, and a later autumn break for southern and eastern Australia, and this is influencing this latest climate outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Other climate influences relevant to this latest outlook relate to temperature of the oceans surrounding Australia. In the Indian Ocean, the central and western tropics are warmer than normal. This pattern tends to move the focus of rainfall away from Australia, and reduces the amount of moisture in the air that travels over western and southern Australia. Higher pressures and reduced westerly winds over the Southern Ocean are also reducing the chance of rainfall in parts of southern Australia. 

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that a drier than average February is more likely for much of Western Australia, and parts western South Australia and the north of the Northern Territory. Parts of eastern Victoria and south-eastern New South Wales have an increased chance of being wetter than usual. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average February (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 31 January 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall February 2018

The rainfall outlook for February to April 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for much of Western Australia and southern South Australia, and parts of eastern Queensland and the north of the Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 31 January 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall February to April 2019

The temperature outlook for February to April 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of parts of southern South Australia and central Australia, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Naional Climate Outlook’, 31 January 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature February to April 2019

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature February to April 2019

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be mainly restricted to the far south-east and the north-eastern quarter of Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of eastern New South Wales and eastern Victoria, much of Queensland, the far north of Western Australia and much of the east and north of the Northern Territory. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for tropical northern Australia.

The tropical north of Queensland is in for more very wet weather over the next eight days as the monsoon continues to strengthen, on the back what has already been a very wet start to 2019. The monsoon trough extends from a tropical low near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria across to the eastern tropical coast of Queensland near Cairns. As winds turn clockwise around the low they are bringing tropical moisture from the Coral Sea right along the coast.

Rainfall totals in excess of 400 millimetres are likely along the coast between Cardwell and Mackay during the next eight days. Rainfall is also expected to spread further inland into central, western and north-western Queensland over the coming days, as that low remains fairly slow-moving over the Gulf Country. While the monsoon trough will start to shift slowly north, this movement is likely to coincide with a renewed burst of monsoon winds and heavier rain and thunderstorms—with those heavier falls likely to remain along coastal locations and north-western Queensland.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 50 millimetres is expected across northern cropping areas of Queensland. Little to no rainfall is expected across other summer cropping regions of Queensland and New South Wales.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 31 January to 7 February 2019

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 31/01/2019

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	30-Jan	US$/A$	0.71	0.72	-1%	0.81	-12%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	29-Jan	US$/t	243	240	1%	232	5%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	30-Jan	US$/t	170	169	<1%	159	7%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	29-Jan	US$/t	429	422	2%	432	<1%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	30-Jan	USc/lb	83.2	83.2	0%	91.3	-9%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	30-Jan	USc/lb	12.6	12.9	-2%	13.4	-6%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	24-Jan	Ac/kg clean	1,927	1,923	<1%	1,744	10%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	25-Jan	Ac/kg clean	2,092	2,105	<1%	1,821	15%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	29-Jan	A$/t	360	352	2%	227	59%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	23-Jan	A$/t	440	440	0%	253	74%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	23-Jan	A$/t	395	395	0%	281	41%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	29-Oct	A$/t	597	na	na	536	11%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	23-Jan	A$/t	360	370	-3%	410	-12%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	24-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	475	478	<1%	531	-11%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic	25-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	362	365	<1%	399	-9%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	24-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	677	651	4%	633	7%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	18-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	323	na	na	274	18%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)	28-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	586	586	0%	483	21%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	15-Dec	Ac/kg lwt	325	325	0%	320	2%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	03-Dec	$/head	108	na	na	121	-11%	chart
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a
Dairy – Whole milk powder	16-Jan	US$/t	2,777	2,705	3%	3,010	-8%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	16-Jan	US$/t	2,405	1,970	22%	1,818	32%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	16-Jan	US$/t	3,504	3,371	4%	3,486	<1%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	16-Jan	US$/t	5,294	5,137	3%	6,547	-19%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution