Weekly update - 31 August 2017

During the week ending 30 August 2017 a series of weak cold fronts brought rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres to south-central Western Australia, southern Victoria, and parts of New South Wales and South Australia. Rainfall totals exceeded 50 millimetres in western Tasmania, where the highest recorded weekly total was 138 millimetres at Mount Read. Little to no rainfall was recorded in northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland, and most of South Australia and New South Wales.

Rainfall - week ending 30 August 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/08/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

During the week ending 29 August 2017 maximum temperatures were between 2°C and 8°C above average for most of Western Australia. Over the remainder of the country, maximum temperatures were generally close to average. Minimum temperatures were above average (2°C to 10°C) in Western Australia, and below average (-2°C to -6°C) in parts of south-eastern and northern Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 29 August 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/08/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 29 August 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/08/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to persist at ENSO-neutral levels until at least late 2017.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled over much of the central tropical Pacific during the past several weeks, yet have remained within the neutral range. Other indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds are also at neutral levels.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, though index values have generally been above zero for the past several months. Most climate models suggest a neutral IOD is likely to continue. However, two of the six climate models surveyed suggest a positive IOD may develop during spring.

Rainfall during September 2017 is more likely to be below average in isolated parts of northern and western Australia and above average in southern Australia. The remainder of mainland Australia has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average September (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 31 August 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September 2017

The rainfall outlook for spring (September to November 2017) indicates that rainfall is more likely to be below average in parts of Western Australia and above average in south-eastern Australia. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during this period (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 31 August 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September to November 2017

The temperature outlook for spring (September to November 2017) indicates that maximum temperatures are more likely to be above average for northern Australia and south-eastern Australia, where there is a greater than 80 per cent chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average maximum temperatures during this period.

Minimum temperatures are more likely to be above average for much of northern and eastern Australia. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average minimum temperatures during this period. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 31 August 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature September to November 2017

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature September to November 2017

Rainfall is expected to be restricted to southern and western parts of the country during the next eight days. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of Western Australia, southern South Australia, most of Victoria and Tasmania, and parts of southern New South Wales. Rainfall totals are forecast to exceed 50 millimetres in western Tasmania, and in alpine regions of Victoria and New South Wales.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 31 August to 7 September 2017

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 31/08/2017

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 31 August 2017 by 105 gigalitres (GL) to 16,611 GL and are at 74 per cent of total capacity. This is 4 percentage points or 903 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 31 August 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water allocations remained constant in the week to 31 August 2017. Allocation updates are expected on 1 September in Victoria and New South Wales.

Select water allocations in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation prices across markets of the southern Murray–Darling Basin were mixed in the week up to 31 August 2017. Average prices across the whole southern system increased slightly to $129/ML. This is an increase of $1 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $124 in July across the whole southern MDB.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 31 August 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	30-Aug	US$/A$	0.79	0.79	0%	0.76	4%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	29-Aug	US$/t	196	198	-1%	183	7%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	30-Aug	US$/t	143	151	-5%	145	-1%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	29-Aug	US$/t	439	433	1%	422	4%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	30-Aug	USc/lb	79.8	77.7	3%	76.6	4%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	30-Aug	USc/lb	14.0	13.5	4%​	20.5	-32%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicatora	13-Jul	Ac/kg clean	1,522	1,524	<1%	1,311	16%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicatora	18-Aug	Ac/kg clean	1,680	1,606	5%	1,397	20%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	22-Aug	A$/t	210	223	-6%	220	-5%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	30-Aug	A$/t	232	237	-2%	231	<1%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	30-Aug	A$/t	221	226	-2%	183	21%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	28-Aug	A$/t	507	495	2%	495	2%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	30-Aug	A$/t	299	314	-5%	206	45%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	24-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	575	551	4%	720	-20%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	25-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	389	401	-15%	395	-14%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	24-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	618	594	4%	579	7%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	11-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	276	274	<1%	377	-27%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	28-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	457	457	0%	577	-21%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	26-Aug	Ac/kg lwt	330	320	3%	360	-8%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	14-Aug	$/head	112	140	-20%	93	20%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	15-Aug	US$/t	3,143	3,155	<1%	2,695	17%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	15-Aug	US$/t	1,968	1,966	<1%	2,028	-3%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	15-Aug	US$/t	4,005	3,932	2%	3,157	27%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	15-Aug	US$/t	6,199	6,289	-1%	4,148	49%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution