Weekly update - 3 October 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 2 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of central and southern Australia.   
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 to 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of southern and eastern New South Wales, central Queensland, southern Western Australia, Victoria and South Australia. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across cropping regions in western and northern New South Wales, central and southern Queensland and much of Western Australia.
  • Rainfall for September  2019 was well below average across large areas of Australia, ranking the tenth-driest September on record.
  • After below average winter rainfall for much of Australia, timely and sufficient rainfall during September was crucial to support spring crop and pasture growth. Unfortunately, most cropping regions across Australia have recorded well below average rainfall during September, with rainfall totals less than 25 millimetres across most regions. These low rainfall totals, along with above average temperatures and evapotranspiration, are expected to adversely affect yield prospects, especially in Western Australia.
  • Lower layer soil moisture in September remained below average to very much below average across cropping regions in much of New South Wales, northern Victoria, southern and eastern Queensland, Western Australia and eastern South Australia. Soil moisture was extremely low across cropping regions in parts of northern and central New South Wales, and southern and eastern Queensland.
  • Over the next eight days, frontal and trough activity is expected to result in limited rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia.
  • Across Australia’s cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates that falls of between 5 and 10 millimetres are expected across parts of southern Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected across cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and remaining cropping regions in Western Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 25 September and 1 October 2019 by 71 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 10,358 GL which represents 41 per cent of total capacity. This is 26 percentage points or 3,630 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $783 per ML on 16 September 2019 to $795 per ML on 23 September 2019. Trade restrictions are currently binding in several catchments, leading to differences in water prices across the Murray Darling Basin.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 2 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of central and southern Australia.   

Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 to 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of southern and eastern New South Wales, central Queensland, southern Western Australia, Victoria and South Australia. Rainfall totals greater than 25 millimetres were recorded across an isolated area of western South Australia. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across cropping regions in western and northern New South Wales, southern Queensland and much of Western Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in parts of northern New South Wales and northern and southern Queensland.

Rainfall for the week ending 2 October 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 02/10/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Monthly temperatures

September 2019 mean maximum temperatures were above average for much of Australia, with highest on record temperatures across a large area of southern Western Australia. Mean minimum temperatures were above average across south-western Australia and below average for scattered areas of northern and eastern Australia. The national mean temperature was 1.19 °C above average. Mean maximum temperatures were the fourth-warmest on record for September at 2.22 °C above average and mean minimum temperatures were close to average.

Maximum temperature deciles for September 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/10/2019

Minimum temperature deciles for September 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/10/2019

Note: Maximum and minimum temperatures for August  2019 compared with temperature recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Monthly rainfall

High-pressure systems persisted over the country for much of September , restricting movement of rain bearing systems. Rainfall was well below average across large areas of Australia, ranking this September as the tenth-driest out of the 120 Septembers on record. Rainfall totals for the month was the ninth-lowest on record for September for the Murray-Darling Basin as a whole, and the fifth-lowest on record for Western Australia. In contrast, rainfall was above average for this time of year across parts of northern Western Australia and south of the Northern Territory.

January to September 2019 rainfall has been very much below average to below average across much of Australia. Nationally, this has been the fourth driest January to September period on record and the driest since 1965.

After below average winter rainfall for much of Australia, timely and sufficient rainfall during September was crucial to support spring crop and pasture growth. Unfortunately, most cropping regions across Australia have recorded well below average rainfall during September, with rainfall totals less than 25 millimetres across most regions. These low rainfall totals, along with above average temperatures and evapotranspiration, are expected to adversely affect yield prospects, especially in Western Australia.

Rainfall totals greater than 25 millimetres were limited to isolated areas of eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, southern South Australia, the far south-west of Western Australia and Tasmania. These falls are likely to have been sufficient to support continued crop and pasture development.

Rainfall percentiles for September 2019

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Note: Rainfall for September 2019 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project

Monthly soil moisture

Upper layer soil moisture for September  2019 was generally average to above average across parts of south-western Queensland, much of Victoria, northern Western Australia, much of South Australia and south of the Northern Territory. In contrast, it was extremely low to very much below average across large areas of central and northern New South Wales, parts of southern, central and eastern Queensland, parts of southern Western Australia and isolated areas of South Australia and the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, upper layer soil moisture was average across much of Victoria, South Australia and parts of central Queensland. Upper layer soil moisture was below average to very much below average across cropping regions in New South Wales, Western Australia, northern Victoria, central South Australia and much of Queensland. Soil moisture in cropping regions across parts of northern New South Wales was extremely low during September.

Modelled upper layer soil moisture for September 2019

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during September  2019. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during September 2019 compare with September  conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in September  2019 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore useful indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating seed.

Lower layer soil moisture for September  2019 was extremely low to very much below average across large areas of New South Wales, parts of the west and south of Western Australia, south-eastern Queensland, northern South Australia and north of the Northern Territory. In contrast, it was average to above average across much of northern and central Queensland, southern Victoria, eastern Western Australia, western Tasmania, south of the Northern Territory and parts of South Australia.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture in September was extremely low to very much below average across much of New South Wales, southern and eastern Queensland and northern and eastern Western Australia. In contrast, lower layer soil moisture was average across cropping regions in parts of northern Queensland, southern Victoria and South Australia.

Modelled lower layer soil moisture for September 2019

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 to 100 centimetres) during September 2019. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during September  2019 compare with September  conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in September  2019 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, frontal and trough activity is expected to result in limited rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia. High-pressure systems are forecast to persist over southern Australia for much of the next eight days, and are likely to restrict the movement of rain-bearing systems and result in low rainfall forecast for much of mainland Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for isolated parts of eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, southern Western Australia and eastern Tasmania. Higher rainfall totals up to 50 millimetres are forecast for western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 10 millimetres is expected across parts of southern Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected across cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and remaining cropping regions in Western Australia.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 3 October to 10 October 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 03/10/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 3 October 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate02-OctUS$/A$0.670.68-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.72-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf01-OctUS$/t207206<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.240-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf02-OctUS$/t1601600%1581%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg01-OctUS$/t424426<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.425<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index02-OctUSc/lb71.671.5<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.86.6-17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract02-OctUSc/lb12.011.27%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.11.45%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator26-SepAc/kg clean1,6091,5424%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,013-20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator27-SepAc/kg clean1,7021,6434%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,141-21%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA24-SepA$/t3153005%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.365-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW02-OctA$/t3753750%435-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW02-OctA$/t3803800%410-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW02-OctA$/t3453450%410-16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator26-SepAc/kg cwt4884694%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.487<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic27-SepAc/kg cwt5535314%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.40537%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator26-SepAc/kg cwt807804<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.70714%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers20-SepAc/kg cwt3933842%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.26548%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)30-SepAc/kg cwt876880<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.54860%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia28-SepAc/kg lwt3153150%3005%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East16-Sep$/head99na0%na0% chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder01-OctUS$/t3,1413,133<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,75314%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder01-OctUS$/t2,6742,5993%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,98235%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese01-OctUS$/t3,7173,846-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,4687%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat01-OctUS$/t4,9975,030<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.5,069-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 4 November 2019
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