Weekly update - 4 July 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • Rainfall totals of between 5 to 50 millimetres were recorded across winter cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia during the week ending 3 July 2019. Following on from favourable rain at the start of winter, these falls are likely to support continued crop growth and have improved soil moisture levels in these regions.
  • Cropping regions in northern New South Wales and much of Queensland recorded little to no rainfall during the week ending 3 July 2019.
  • Rainfall for June 2019 was below average to average across much of Australia, with particularly low rainfall across parts of central and south-eastern Australia.
  • Cropping regions in Western Australia, Victoria, South Australia and northern Queensland have had an improved start to winter compared to 2018, with average to well above average rainfall being recorded during June 2019.
  • The June falls have likely allowed the completion of planting programs and the germination of sown crops, supported crop and pasture growth and improved soil moisture levels.
  • Extremely low to well below average June 2019 rainfall across large areas of New South Wales and southern Queensland is likely to have constrained potential winter crop and pasture growth and resulted in a decline in soil moisture levels in these regions.
  • Following below average June 2019 rainfall across large areas of Australia, 6‑month deficiencies have increased over north-eastern New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland, eastern Western Australia, western and central South Australia and south of the Northern Territory.
  • Across Australia’s winter cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates moderate falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres for much of Victoria, northern Queensland and Western Australia. Lighter Falls of between 5 and 15 millimetres are forecast over cropping regions in New South Wales, north-western Victoria, southern Queensland, South Australia and the east of Western Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 25 June and 3 July 2019 by 109 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 8,974 GL which represents 35% of total capacity. This is 34% or 4,640%GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased from $524 per ML in the week ending 17 June 2019 to $552 per ML in the week ending 24 June 2019.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 3 July 2019 rainfall was recorded across south-western and south-eastern Australia, and scattered areas eastern Australia. Little to rainfall was recorded across the rest of Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 5 to 50 millimetres were recorded across winter cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia during the week ending 3 July 2019. Following on from favourable rain at the start of winter, these falls are likely to support continued crop growth and have improved soil moisture levels in these regions.

Cropping regions in northern New South Wales and much of Queensland recorded little to no rainfall during the week ending 3 July 2019. A persistent lack of rain bearing systems since the end of March coupled with extremely low soil moisture levels have significantly limited crop and pasture growth opportunities in these regions.

Rainfall for the week ending 3 July 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 03/07/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Monthly temperatures

June 2019 mean maximum temperatures were above average for large parts of western and south-eastern Australia, in contrast, mean minimum temperatures were below average for scattered areas of Australia, including much of South Australia. The national mean temperature was 0.26 °C above average. Mean maximum temperatures were 0.54 °C above average and mean minimum temperatures were close to average.

Maximum temperature deciles for June 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 02/07/2019

Minimum temperature deciles for June 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 02/07/2019

Note: Maximum and minimum temperatures for June  2019 compared with temperature recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Monthly rainfall

Rainfall for June  2019 was below average to average across much of Australia, with particularly low rainfall across parts of central and south-eastern Australia. In contrast, rainfall was above average across small parts of western Victoria, northern Queensland and south-west Western Australia.

June rainfall was extremely low to well above average for much of New South Wales, parts of southern and northern Queensland, northern and eastern Western Australia, western and part of eastern South Australia and parts of the west of the Northern Territory.

Cropping regions in Western Australia, Victoria, South Australia and northern Queensland have had an improved start to winter when compared to 2018, with average to well above average rainfall recorded during June  2019. These June falls have likely allowed the completion of planting programs and the germination of sown crops, supported crop and pasture growth and improved soil moisture levels. Extremely low to well below average June  2019 rainfall across large areas of New South Wales and southern Queensland is likely to have constrained potential winter crop and pasture growth in these regions.

Rainfall percentiles for June 2019

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Note: Rainfall for June 2019 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project

Monthly soil moisture

In cropping regions, upper layer soil moisture was generally average to well above average across Western Australia, Victoria, South Australia and northern and eastern Queensland. This improvement in moisture levels, particularly in Queensland and Western Australia, is likely to have supported winter crop germination and growth in these regions. Upper layer soil moisture was generally extremely low to below average across cropping regions in northern and part of southern New South Wales, southern Queensland and a small area of southern Western Australia, which recorded below average rainfall during June.

Modelled upper layer soil moisture for June 2019

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during June  2019. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during June 2019 compare with June  conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in June  2019 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore useful indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating seed.

Lower layer soil moisture for June  2019 was extremely low to well below average across large areas of eastern New South Wales, scattered areas of south-eastern Victoria, south-eastern Queensland, southern, parts of southern and northern Western Australia, parts of eastern and south-western South Australia, eastern Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory. In contrast, it was above average to well above average across parts of south-eastern Australia, central Queensland, and scattered parts of central Australia.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture in June was extremely low to well below average across much of central and northern New South Wales, southern and eastern Queensland, and southern Western Australia. Low modelled soil moisture in these regions reflects recent rainfall deficiencies and above average temperature. In contrast, average or better lower layer soil moisture across cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and northern cropping areas in Queensland for this time of year, reflects the better start to the winter growing period that has been recorded in these regions.

Modelled lower layer soil moisture for June 2019

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 to 100 centimetres) during June 2019. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during June  2019 compare with June  conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in June  2019 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Rainfall deficiencies

The rainfall deficiencies presented below are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology’s monthly ‘Drought Statement’. As short to longer-term deficiencies become evident the Bureau of Meteorology monitors these events through their lifecycle—from emergence through to their dissipation—with the time-period of analysis each month increasing from a fixed starting point to the easing of the deficiencies.

For further information, go to Drought

For the 6-month period ending June 2019, north-eastern New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland, eastern Western Australia, western and central South Australia and much of the Northern Territory recorded rainfall totals in the lowest 5 to 10 per cent of the historical record (serious or severe rainfall deficiencies).

Areas recording rainfall totals in the lowest 5 to 10 per cent of the historical record are also evident at longer timescales. For the 15-months ending June 2019, serious or severe rainfall deficiencies have decreased along the west coast of Western Australia. In contrast, rainfall deficiencies increased in severity across New South Wales, northern Victoria and southern Queensland. Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies persist across much of northern and western New South Wales, parts of Victoria and south-eastern Queensland, large areas of eastern South Australia, parts of northern and southern Western Australia and much of the Northern Territory (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 3 July 2019).

Rainfall deficiencies for the 6 month period 1 January to 30 June 2019

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 03/07/2019

Rainfall deficiencies for the 15-month period 1 April 2018 to 30 June 2019

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 03/07/2019

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, rainfall is expected across south-western, southern and eastern Australia. 

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of central and eastern New South Wales, Victoria, eastern Queensland, south-west of Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia and Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres is forecast for part of eastern Queensland, the far south-west of Western and western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 25 millimetres is expected across southern New South Wales, much of Victoria, northern Queensland and Western Australia. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is expected across the far north of Queensland and the west of Western Australia cropping regions. Lighter falls of between 5 and 15 millimetres are expected across cropping regions in New South Wales, north-western Victoria, southern Queensland, South Australia and the east of Western Australia.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 4 July to 11 July 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 04/07/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 4 July 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate03-JulUS$/A$0.7 0.691%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.0.74-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf02-JulUS$/t225227<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.224<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf03-JulUS$/t191202-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.15722%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg02-JulUS$/t416417<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.417<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index03-JulUSc/lb77.5 76.8 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.93.5-17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract03-JulUSc/lb12.512.3 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.11.7 7%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator27-JunAc/kg clean1,7151,766-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,056-17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator28-JunAc/kg clean1,832na na 2,243-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA02-JulA$/t242274-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.284-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW03-JulA$/t375380-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.nana chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW03-JulA$/t3653650%nana chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597 nana 53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW03-JulA$/t3553550%410-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator27-JunAc/kg cwt489492<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.499-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic28-JunAc/kg cwt5915772%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.53311%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator27-JunAc/kg cwt9008852%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.71027%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers21-JunAc/kg cwt3543501%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.25340%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)01-JulAc/kg cwt9409400%51682%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia29-JunAc/kg lwt2902900%2755%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East13-May$/head13511023%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.9542%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder02-JulUS$/t2,9693,006-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,9052%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder02-JulUS$/t2,4302,3583%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,91327%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese02-JulUS$/t3,7563,781<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,7131%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat02-JulUS$/t5,4335,530-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.5,937-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 4 November 2019
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