Weekly update - 6 February 2020

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 5 February 2020 widespread rainfall was recorded across northern, eastern and central Australia. These falls are likely to benefit plant growth, build soil moisture levels and provide useful inflow to farm water storages across tropical northern Australia and much of South Australia.
  • January 2020 was the third-warmest January on record for Australia, with the national mean temperature being 1.45°C above average. Mean temperature was above average for all States and Territories.
  • January 2020 rainfall was 12% above average for Australia. Average to above average rainfall during January has benefited plant growth across much of northern Australia and large area of eastern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. It has also provided some useful inflows into on-farm water storages and started to rebuild soil moisture levels.
  • Rainfall totals were average for most summer cropping regions, with severely deficient rainfall in parts of north-western New South Wales and above average rainfall in northern Queensland. While January rainfall will benefit crop growth in some regions, the rainfall was patchy and is likely to have arrived too late to encourage substantial additional plantings across most southern growing regions.
  • Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 15 and 50 millimetres are forecast for large areas of northern, western and eastern Australia. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres are forecast for coastal New South Wales, south-eastern and northern Queensland, and parts of northern Western Australia.
  • While these falls are likely to provide some relief to fire affected areas, there is increased risk of runoff and erosion from heavy storm related rainfall events due to the preceding hot and dry conditions and low ground cover.
  • Across Australia’s summer cropping regions rainfall of between 25 and 100 millimetres is expected across much of Queensland and northern New South Wales, with heavier falls in excess of 150 millimetres expected across parts of eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 29 January 2020 and 5 February 2020 by 126 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 7,809 GL which represents 31 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $725 per ML on 30 January 2020 to $650 per ML on 6 February 2020.

Climate

[expand all]

Rainfall this week

During the week ending 5 February 2020 widespread rainfall was recorded across northern, eastern and central Australia. These falls are likely to benefit plant growth, build soil moisture levels and provide useful inflow to farm water storages across tropical northern Australia and large areas of south-eastern Australia.

In Australia’s summer cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 25 and 50 millimetres were recorded across much of Queensland. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across parts of New South Wales, and northern and southern Queensland during the week ending 5 January 2020.

Rainfall for the week ending 5 February 2020

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 5/2/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Monthly temperatures

January 2020 was the third-warmest January on record for Australia, with the national mean temperature being 1.45°C above average. Mean temperature was above average for all States and Territories. It was the second-warmest January on record for Queensland, third-warmest for New South Wales, and sixth-warmest for the Northern Territory.

Maximum and minimum temperatures for January were above average across most of eastern Australia, as well as much of the Northern Territory and parts of Western Australia. Additionally, minimum temperatures for January across parts of north-eastern New South Wales, and eastern and northern Queensland were highest on record. In contrast, maximum temperatures for January across central Western Australia were very much below average to below average.

Maximum temperature deciles for January 2020

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 1/02/2020

Minimum temperature deciles for January 2020

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 1/02/2020

Note: Maximum and minimum temperatures for August 2019 compared with temperature recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Monthly rainfall

January 2020 rainfall was 12% above average for Australia. Average to above average rainfall during January has benefited plant growth across much of northern Australia and large area of eastern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. It has also provided some useful inflows into on-farm water storages and started to rebuild soil moisture levels.

Rainfall for the month was above average across much of Western Australia, with a large area of extremely high rainfall in central Western Australia due to tropical systems providing heavy rainfall. Rainfall was also above average to extremely high across isolated parts of north-eastern New South Wales, parts of western and central Queensland, central Victoria, western and central South Australia and east of the Northern Territory.

January rainfall was severely deficient to well below average across parts of southern, central and western New South Wales, far northern Queensland, south-western Western Australia, eastern South Australia and scattered parts of the Northern Territory.

January 2020 rainfall totals were average for most summer cropping regions, with severely deficient rainfall in parts of north-western New South Wales and above average rainfall in northern Queensland. While January rainfall will benefit crop growth in some regions, the rainfall was patchy and is likely to have arrived too late to encourage substantial additional plantings across most southern growing regions. This rainfall will most benefit summer crops that had been planted prior to mid-January and the central Queensland cropping region where the planting window is still open. Average or better January rainfall will start to build soil moisture levels for winter cropping later in the year.

Rainfall percentiles for January 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Note: Rainfall for January 2020 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project

Monthly soil moisture

Upper layer soil moisture in January 2020 was average to above average across much of Australia. It was below average across parts of New South Wales, far north and south-eastern Queensland, eastern South Australia and south-western Western Australia.

In summer cropping regions across northern New South Wales and Queensland, upper layer soil moisture was below average across parts of north-western New South Wales and south-western Queensland. Average to above average soil moisture was recorded across the remainder of summer cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland.

Modelled upper layer soil moisture for January 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during January 2020. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during January 2020 compare with January conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in January 2020 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore useful indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating seed.

Lower layer soil moisture for January 2020 was generally below average to very much below average across much of New South Wales, eastern and south-western Queensland, parts of eastern and western Victoria, eastern South Australia, south-western Western Australia and parts of the north and south of the Northern Territory. Lower layer soil moisture was above average to very much above average across most of Western Australia and parts of western South Australia.

In summer cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was below average to very much below average for much of northern New South Wales and Queensland.

Modelled lower layer soil moisture for January 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 to 100 centimetres) during January 2020. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during January 2020 compare with January conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in January 2020than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 15 and 50 millimetres are forecast for large areas of northern, western and eastern Australia. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres are forecast for coastal New South Wales, south-eastern and northern Queensland, and parts of northern Western Australia.

While these falls are likely to provide some relief to fire affected areas, there is increased risk of runoff and erosion from heavy storm related rainfall events due to the preceding hot and dry conditions and low ground cover.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 25 and 100 millimetres is expected across much of Queensland and northern New South Wales. Heavier falls in excess of 150 millimetres are expected across parts of summer cropping regions in eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales during the next 8 days.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 6 to 13 February 2020

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 6/02/2020

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 5 December 2019

Indicator Week ended Unit Latest price Price week prior Weekly change Price 12 months prior Year on year change Chart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate 05-Feb US$/A$ 0.67 0.68 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 0.72 -7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf 04-Feb US$/t 231 236 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 245 -6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf 05-Feb US$/t 171 173 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 172 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg 26-Nov US$/t 423 423 0% 423 0% chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index 06-Feb USc/lb 77.3 79.2 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 83.1 -7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract 06-Feb USc/lb 14.7 14.5 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 12.7 16%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator 30-Jan Ac/kg clean 1,548 1,576 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 1,934 -20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator 30-Jan Ac/kg clean 1,683 1,685 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 2,092 -20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA 04-Feb A$/t 335 342 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 349 -4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW 07-Jan A$/t 442 447 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 455 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW 07-Jan A$/t 385 382 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 438 -12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW 07-Jan A$/t 467 477 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 432 8%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator 30-Jan Ac/kg cwt 580 548 6%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 469 24%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic 30-Jan Ac/kg cwt 600 622 -4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 392 53%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator 30-Jan Ac/kg cwt 809 779 4%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 662 22%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers 24-Jan Ac/kg cwt 429 430 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 323 33%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) 03-Feb Ac/kg cwt 883 879 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 588 50%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia 01-Feb Ac/kg lwt 340 335 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 325 5%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East 09-Dec $/head 105 140 -25%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 108 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder 04-Feb US$/t 3,039 3,233 -6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 3,027 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder 04-Feb US$/t 2,907 3,036 -4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 2,534 15%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese 04-Feb US$/t 4,302 4,048 6%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 3,565 21%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat 04-Feb US$/t 4,626 4,821 -4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 5,579 -17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week


The Tableau dashboard may not meet accessibility requirements. For information about the contents of these dashboards contact ABARES.







 
 
Last reviewed: 6 February 2020
Thanks for your feedback.
Thanks! Your feedback has been submitted.

We aren't able to respond to your individual comments or questions.
To contact us directly phone us or submit an online inquiry

Please verify that you are not a robot.

Skip