Weekly update - 12 December 2019

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 11 December 2019 rainfall was restricted to scattered areas of southern, eastern and northern Australia.
  • Little to no rainfall was recorded across Australia’s cropping regions during the week ending 11 December 2019.
  • A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and periods of negative Southern Annual Mode (SAM) continue to influence Australia's weather, likely contributing to the below average rainfall, above average temperatures and the increased bushfire activity experienced in spring.
  • IOD and SAM are expected to continue to influence Australian climate during January, with a warmer and drier than average outlook for January across eastern Australia, but weaken as an influences on the weather from February 2020.
  • The rainfall outlook for January to March 2020 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across most of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average January to March is more likely for Western Australia.
  • Over the next eight days, rainfall is likely to be restricted to isolated areas of eastern and the far north of Australia.
  • Across Australia’s cropping regions, little to no rainfall is expected during the 8‑day forecast period.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 4 December and 11 December 2019 by 133 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 9,221 GL which represents 36 per cent of total capacity. This is 25 percentage points or 3,018 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray Below the Barmah Choke decreased from $820 per ML on 5 December 2019 to $750 per ML on12 December 2019.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 11 December 2019 rainfall was restricted to scattered areas of northern Australia and western Tasmania.

Across Australia’s cropping regions, little to no rainfall was recorded during the week ending 11 December 2019.

Rainfall for the week ending 11 December 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/12/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 11 December  2019, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across most of Australia. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across parts of western and northern Australia. In contrast, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C below average across parts of central and eastern Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 11 December 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/12/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 11 December 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/12/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral and expected to remain neutral until at least early 2020. A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and periods of negative Southern Annual Mode (SAM) continue to influence Australia's weather, likely contributing to the below average rainfall, above average temperatures and the increased bushfire activity experienced in spring. The IOD and SAM are expected to continue to influence Australian climate during January, with a warmer and drier than average outlook for January, but weaken as an influence on the weather from February 2020.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average January is more likely for much of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average January is more likely across parts of western and northern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 5 December 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall January 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median rainfall during the next month in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are given as a probability (or chance) of exceeding a specified rainfall or temperature threshold. In the case of the Bureau’s rainfall outlook, it is represented as the chance of rainfall being above median, expressed as a percentage. While this probabilistic forecast indicates that there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months for much of Australia, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to ease current long-term deficiencies.

The rainfall outlook for January to March 2020 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across most of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average January to March is more likely for Western Australia. Across remainder of Australia, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 5 December 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall January to March 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

The temperature outlook for January 2019 to March 2020 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia, with the exception of southern Victoria and Tasmania where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 5 December 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature January to March 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median maximum temperature for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature January to March 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median minimum temperature for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of eastern and the far north of Australia. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of the tropical far north of Australia and western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, little to no rainfall is expected during the next eight days.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 12 to 19 December 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 12/12/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 12 December 2019

Indicator Week ended Unit Latest price Price week prior Weekly change Price 12 months prior Year on year change Chart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate 11-Dec US$/A$ 0.68 0.68 0% 0.72 -6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf 10-Dec US$/t 216 220 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 240 -10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf 11-Dec US$/t 166 168 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 170 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg 26-Nov US$/t 423 423 0% 423 0% chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index 11-Dec USc/lb 74.7 74.5 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 88.3 -15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract 11-Dec USc/lb 13.3 12.9 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 12.8 4%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator 05-Dec Ac/kg clean 1,492 1,530 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 1,849 -19%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator 06-Dec Ac/kg clean 1,604 1,640 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 2,031 -21%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA 03-Dec A$/t 304 299 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 373 -18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW 27-Nov A$/t 405 400 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 449 -10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW 27-Nov A$/t 353 353 0% 425 -17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW 27-Nov A$/t 424 424 0% 440 -4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator 05-Dec Ac/kg cwt 500 499 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 515 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic 06-Dec Ac/kg cwt 614 625 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 424 45%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator 05-Dec Ac/kg cwt 694 726 -4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 663 5%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers 29-Nov Ac/kg cwt 420 418 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 311 35%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) 09-Dec Ac/kg cwt 822 824 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 572 44%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia 07-Dec Ac/kg lwt 315 315 0% 325 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East 09-Dec $/head 105 140 -25%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 108 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder 03-Dec US$/t 3,331 3,321 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 2,667 25%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder 03-Dec US$/t 3,068 3,017 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 1,970 56%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese 03-Dec US$/t 3,797 3,701 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 3,184 19%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat 03-Dec US$/t 4,840 5,108 -5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 4,755 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week


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Last reviewed: 9 January 2020
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