Weekly update - 14 February 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 13 February 2019 rainfall was recorded across large areas of northern Australia, as well as parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia.
  • In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 25 millimetres was recorded across some northern growing regions in Queensland during the week ending 13 February 2019.
  • For the week ending 12 February 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally 2°C to 8°C above average across large areas of northern and eastern Australia. In contrast, maximum and minimum temperatures were -2°C to -6°C below average across large areas of north-west Queensland and parts of the far south of Australia.
  • For the 10-month period ending January 2019, rainfall deficiencies have increased in severity across large areas of eastern Australia. They have also increased in extent across northern Australia as a result of a delayed onset of the Australian monsoon during the summer of 2018–19 in a number of regions.
  • A drier than average March is more likely for parts of north-eastern Queensland, large areas of southern and northern Western Australia and parts of central Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average March.
  • The mid-month climate outlook for autumn 2019 indicates a drier than average three months is more likely for parts of northern and southern New South Wales, large areas of eastern and far-western Queensland, northern Western Australia, and southern Northern Territory. For much of the remainder of the country, there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to eastern and northern Australia.
  • In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 5 millimetres is expected across northern cropping areas of Queensland.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 112 gigalitres (GL) between 7 February 2019 and 14 February 2019. The current volume of water held in storage is 9,889 GL, which represents 39 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased from $487 per ML in the week ending 28 January 2019 to $491 per ML in the week ending 4 February 2019.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 13 February 2019 rainfall was recorded across large areas of northern Australia, as well as parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of eastern and central New South Wales, Victoria, large areas of Queensland, northern and south-western Western Australia, Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across large areas of tropical northern Australia and Tasmania.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 25 millimetres was recorded across some northern growing regions in Queensland during the week ending 13 February 2019. Lighter fall of between 1 and 10 millimetres was recorded across remaining summer cropping regions in Queensland and New South Wales.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 13 February 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/02/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 12 February 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally 2°C to 8°C above average across large areas of northern and eastern Australia. In contrast, maximum and minimum temperatures were -2°C to -6°C below average across large areas of north-west Queensland and parts of the far south of Australia. Average (-2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 February 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/02/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 February 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/02/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Rainfall deficiencies

The rainfall deficiencies presented below are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology’s monthly ‘Drought Statement’. The Bureau of Meteorology monitors short to longer-term deficiencies through their lifecycle—from emergence through to their dissipation—with the time period of analysis increasing each month from a fixed starting point to the when the deficiencies ease.

For further information, go to Drought.

For the 10-month period ending January 2019, rainfall deficiencies have increased in severity across large areas of eastern Australia and in extent across northern Australia, as a result of the delayed onset of the Australian monsoon during the summer of 2018–19 in a number of regions. Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies persist across large areas of northern New South Wales, parts of eastern Victoria, much of southern and parts of western Queensland, large areas of eastern South Australia, parts of southern and northern Western Australia and central part of the Northern Territory.

Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies continue to persist at longer timescales. For the 22 months starting April 2017, serious to severe rainfall deficiencies remain evident across large areas of eastern and northern New South Wales, parts of eastern Victoria, large areas of eastern South Australia, southern and western Queensland, parts of western and southern Western Australia and central part of the Northern Territory (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 February 2019).

Rainfall deficiencies for the 10-month period 1 April 2018 to 31 January 2019

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 05/02/2019

Rainfall deficiencies for the 22-month period 1 April 2017 to 31 January 2019

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 05/02/2019

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s mid-month national climate outlook suggests little signal from any of the typical Australian climate drivers, with most in a neutral phase. Therefore, local effects, such as the ocean temperatures around Australia, are likely to be the main influence on climatic conditions in Australia over the next three months.

A drier than average March is more likely for parts of north-eastern Queensland, large areas of southern and northern Western Australia and parts of central Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average March (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 February 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall March 2019

 

The rainfall outlook for autumn (March to May 2019) indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for parts of northern and southern New South Wales, large areas of eastern and far western Queensland, northern Western Australia, and southern Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country, there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 February 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall March 2019 to May 2019

 

The temperature outlook for March 2019 to May 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average across Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of parts of southern South Australia, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 February 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature March 2019 to May 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature March 2019 to May 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be mainly restricted to eastern and northern Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for scattered of Australia’s east coast, far north Queensland, the far north of Western Australia, western Tasmania and the far north of Northern Territory. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of the tropical north of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 5 millimetres is expected across northern cropping areas of Queensland. Little to no rainfall is expected across other summer cropping regions of Queensland and New South Wales.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 14 February to 21 February 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/02/2019

Commodities

Current indicators – 14 February 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate13-FebUS$/A$0.710.72-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.78-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf12-FebUS$/t241245-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2372%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf13-FebUS$/t173172<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1636%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg12-FebUS$/t423430-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.430-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index13-FebUSc/lb81.283.1-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.87.3-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract13-FebUSc/lb12.812.7<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.13.6-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator07-FebAc/kg clean1,9441,934<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,8187%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator01-FebAc/kg clean2,0942,092<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,81915%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA12-FebA$/t3583493%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.23652%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW13-FebA$/t435nana27061%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW13-FebA$/t370nana26241%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597nana53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW13-FebA$/t370nana410-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator07-FebAc/kg cwt4754691%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.539-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic08-FebAc/kg cwt352392-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.378-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator07-FebAc/kg cwt633662-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.630<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers01-FebAc/kg cwt324323<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.27717%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)11-FebAc/kg cwt5885880%47823%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia02-FebAc/kg lwt3253250%3202%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East03-Dec$/head108 na na121-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder06-FebUS$/t3,0272,7779%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,226-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder06-FebUS$/t2,5342,4055%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,93231%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese06-FebUS$/t3,5653,5042%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,739-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat06-FebUS$/t5,5795,2945%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6,581-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 4 November 2019
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