Weekly update - 14 March 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 13 March 2019 rainfall was recorded across northern and eastern Australia, as well as parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia.
  • In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 50 millimetres was recorded across some northern and south-eastern growing regions in Queensland during the week ending 13 March 2019. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across most summer cropping regions in New South Wales.
  • For the week ending 12 March 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally well above average across much of the country. Maximum temperatures were -2°C to -4°C below average in parts of southern Western Australia, south-western Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and western Tasmania.
  • The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that a drier than average April is more likely for northern and eastern Queensland, and part of north-eastern New South Wales. In contrast, parts of Western Australia have an increased chance of being wetter than usual.
  • The rainfall outlook for April to June 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for the Cape York Peninsula, and scattered parts of western Queensland, south-eastern New South Wales and northern Victoria. Isolated parts of inland Western Australia have an increased chance of being wetter than usual. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be mainly restricted to northern and eastern Australia.
  • In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 25 and 100 millimetres is expected across central and eastern cropping areas of Queensland. Lower rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected across remaining summer cropping regions of Queensland and New South Wales.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 6 March and 13 March 2019 by 199 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 9,076 GL which represents 36 per cent of total capacity. This is 36 percentage points or 5,009 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased from $471 per ML in the week ending 25 February 2019 to $473 per ML in the week ending 4 March 2019.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 13 March 2019 rainfall was recorded across northern and eastern Australia, as well as parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across part of north-eastern New South Wales, northern and eastern Queensland, part of northern and southern Western Australia, western Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of tropical northern Australia.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 50 millimetres was recorded across some northern and south-eastern growing regions in Queensland during the week ending 13 March 2019. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 13 March 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/03/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 12  March 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally well above average across much of the country. Areas of 2°C to 10°C above average maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded across vast areas of western, central and eastern Australia. Maximum temperatures were -2°C to -4°C below average in parts of southern Western Australia, south-western Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and western Tasmania. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 March 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/03/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 March 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/03/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average and there is a reasonable chance that El Niño will develop during autumn 2019. While an El Niño typically results in warmer and drier than usual conditions during winter and spring, it typically has a weaker influence on climatic conditions in Australia during autumn.

Other climate influences relevant to this latest outlook relate to the temperature of the oceans surrounding Australia. While the Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to remain neutral through autumn, towards the end of the forecast period it is projected that the central and western tropics in the Indian Ocean will be warmer than normal and the waters off Western Australia will be cooler than average. This pattern tends to move the focus of rainfall away from Australia, and reduces the amount of moisture in the air that travels over western and southern Australia. Higher than normal air pressures are likely to remain over eastern Queensland and the Coral Sea during autumn, reducing the chance of rainfall in much of eastern Australia. 

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that a drier than average April is more likely for northern and eastern Queensland, and part of north-eastern New South Wales. In contrast, parts of Western Australia have an increased chance of being wetter than usual. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average April (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 March 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall April 2019

 

The rainfall outlook for April to June 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for the Cape York Peninsula, and scattered parts of western Queensland, south-eastern New South Wales and northern Victoria. Isolated parts of inland Western Australia have an increased chance of being wetter than usual. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 March 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall April to June 2019

 

The temperature outlook for April to June 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with a very high chance, greater than 80%, across northern and eastern Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 March 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature April to June 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature April to June 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be mainly restricted to northern and eastern Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for eastern New South Wales, the eastern quarter and far north of Queensland, northern Western Australia and the north of the Northern Territory. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of north-eastern New South Wales, the south-east and far north of Queensland, the north of the Northern Territory and far north Western Australia.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 25 and 100 millimetres is expected across central and eastern cropping areas of Queensland. Lower rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected across remaining summer cropping regions of Queensland and New South Wales.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 14 to 21 March 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/03/2019

Commodities

Current indicators – 14 March 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate13-MarUS$/A$0.70.71-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.78-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf12-MarUS$/t220223-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.256-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf13-MarUS$/t164169-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.179-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg12-MarUS$/t404402<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.426-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index13-MarUSc/lb82.081.4<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.93.1-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract13-MarUSc/lb12.212.7-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.12.8-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator07-MarAc/kg clean2,0082,016<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,77813%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator08-MarAc/kg clean2,1572,177<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,85916%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA12-MarA$/t285289-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.24218%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW13-MarA$/t4354009%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.27856%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW13-MarA$/t3703603%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.27933%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597nana53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW13-MarA$/t370380-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.410-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator07-MarAc/kg cwt401434-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.566-29%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic08-MarAc/kg cwt397415-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.407-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator07-MarAc/kg cwt639656-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.5977%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers01-MarAc/kg cwt3293290%27520%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)11-MarAc/kg cwt6166160%46832%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia09-MarAc/kg lwt3403400%3206%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East04-Mar$/head105 105 0%124-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder06-MarUS$/t3,1863,0225%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,232-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder06-MarUS$/t2,4622,580-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,05120%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese06-MarUS$/t3,8883,6676%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,7593%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat06-MarUS$/t5,8375,6204%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6,245-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 4 November 2019
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