Weekly update - 14 November 2019

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 13 November 2019 rainfall was restricted to small parts of south-eastern and northern Australia.
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 to 5 millimetres were recorded in parts of southern New South Wales, and much of Victoria and South Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in Queensland and Western Australia, and remaining cropping regions in New South Wales.
  • While weekly temperature anomalies were not significantly above average, parts of north-eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland have recorded daily maximum temperature anomalies in excess of 10°C above average for this time of year during the past week.
  • This recent hot weather coupled with dry and gusty conditions has led to very high fire danger levels, and have sparked and fuelled numerous dangerous bushfires over the past week.
  • The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues and while the influence of IOD events on climatic conditions in Australia typically reduces in summer, this event could persist until mid-summer as it weakens.
  • A negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) event is also forecast to persist for the remainder of November. This negative SAM is likely to intensify dry and warm conditions across eastern Australia for the remainder of spring.
  • The rainfall outlook for December to February 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across parts of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average December to February is more likely for the north-west of Western Australia.
  • Following below average October 2019 rainfall across much of Australia, 10‑month deficiencies have increased slightly over south-eastern New South Wales, central and eastern Victoria, and the south of South Australia and Western Australia.
  • Over the next eight days, a series of high-pressure systems are expected to persist over southern Australia, restricting the movement of rain-bearing systems across the continent.
  • Across Australia’s cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates that 1 to 5 millimetres are expected across parts of northern Queensland and southern Western Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 6 November and 13 November 2019 by 55 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 9,843 GL which represents 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 24 percentage points or 3,128 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $950 per ML on 7 November 2019 to $940 per ML on 14 November 2019.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 13 November 2019 rainfall was restricted to small parts of south-eastern and northern Australia.

Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 to 5 millimetres were recorded in parts of southern New South Wales, and much of Victoria and South Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in Queensland and Western Australia, and remaining cropping regions in New South Wales.

Rainfall for the week ending 13 November 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/11/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 12 November  2019, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across large areas of Western Australia and parts of northern and eastern Australia. In contrast, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C below average across parts of south-eastern Australia and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C below average across large areas of eastern and northern Australia.

While weekly temperature anomalies were not significantly above average, parts of north-eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland have recorded daily maximum temperature anomalies in excess of 10°C above average for this time of year during the past week. This recent hot weather coupled with dry and gusty conditions has led to very high fire danger levels, and have sparked and fuelled numerous dangerous bushfires over the past week.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 November 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/11/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 November 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/11/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral and expected to remain neutral until at least early 2020. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues and while the influence of IOD events on climatic conditions in Australia typically reduces in summer, this event could persist until mid-summer as it weakens. A positive IOD typically brings below average spring rainfall and warmer days to southern and central Australia. A negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) event is also forecast to persist for the remainder of November. This negative SAM in spring is likely to intensify dry and warm conditions across eastern Australia, bring wetter than average conditions to western Tasmania and increase the chance of spring heatwaves across southern and eastern Australia.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average December is more likely for most of the country. In contrast, a wetter than average December is more likely across parts of the north-west of Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 7 November 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2019

Map showing chance of exceeding median rainfall during the next month in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are given as a probability (or chance) of exceeding a specified rainfall or temperature threshold. In the case of the Bureau’s rainfall outlook, it is represented as the chance of rainfall being above median, expressed as a percentage. While this probabilistic forecast indicates that there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months for much of Australia, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to ease current long-term deficiencies.

The rainfall outlook for December to February 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across parts of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average December to February is more likely for the north-west of Western Australia. Across much of Australia, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 7 November 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2019 to February 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

The temperature outlook for December to February 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia, with the exception of Tasmania and isolated parts of north-eastern Queensland where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 7 November 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature December 2019 to February 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median maximum temperature for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature December 2019 to February 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median minimum temperature for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

Rainfall deficiencies

The rainfall deficiencies presented below are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology’s monthly ‘Drought Statement’. As short to longer-term deficiencies become evident the Bureau of Meteorology monitors these events through their lifecycle—from emergence through to their dissipation—with the time-period of analysis each month increasing from a fixed starting point to the easing of the deficiencies.

For further information, go to Drought

Following below average October 2019 rainfall across much of Australia, 10-month deficiencies have increased slightly over south-eastern New South Wales, central and eastern Victoria, and the south of South Australia and Western Australia. For the 10‑month period ending October  2019, north-eastern New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland, large areas of southern and eastern Western Australia, and much of South Australia and the Northern Territory recorded rainfall totals in the lowest 5 to 10 per cent of the historical record (serious or severe rainfall deficiencies).

Areas recording rainfall totals in the lowest 5 to 10 per cent of the historical record are also evident at longer timescales. For the 18-months ending October 2019 serious to severe rainfall deficiencies persist across much of New South Wales, South Australia, parts of Victoria and south-eastern Queensland, much of northern and parts of southern Western Australia and much of the Northern Territory (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 8 November 2019).

Rainfall deficiencies for the 10 month period 1 January to 31 October 2019

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 08/11/2019

Rainfall deficiencies for the 19-month period 1 April 2018 to 31 October 2019

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 08/11/2019

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, a series of high-pressure systems are expected to persist over southern Australia, restricting the movement of rain-bearing systems across the continent.

Rainfall totals of between 5 and 15 millimetres are forecast for isolated parts of coastal south-eastern Australia and the far north of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals up to 100 millimetres are forecast for western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 5 millimetres are expected across parts of northern Queensland and southern Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 14 November to 21 November 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/11/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 14 November 2019

Indicator Week ended Unit Latest price Price week prior Weekly change Price 12 months prior Year on year change Chart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate 13-Nov US$/A$ 0.68 0.69 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 0.72 -6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf 12-Nov US$/t 219 216 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 235 -7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf 13-Nov US$/t 168 170 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 162 4%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg 12-Nov US$/t 422 425 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 431 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index 13-Nov USc/lb 75.3 75.3 0% 87.1 -14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract 13-Nov USc/lb 12.5 12.5 0% 12.8 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator 07-Nov Ac/kg clean 1,555 1,594 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 1,776 -12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator 01-Nov Ac/kg clean 1,687 1,672 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 1,931 -13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA 12-Nov A$/t 295 287 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 375 -21%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW 13-Nov A$/t 380 380 0% 440 -14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW 13-Nov A$/t 360 360 0% 435 -17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW 13-Nov A$/t 345 345 0% 410 -16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator 07-Nov Ac/kg cwt 522 511 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 519 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic 08-Nov Ac/kg cwt 607 582 4%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 415 46%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator 07-Nov Ac/kg cwt 759 760 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 678 12%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers 01-Nov Ac/kg cwt 411 409 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 280 47%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) 11-Nov Ac/kg cwt 852 874 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 538 58%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia 09-Nov Ac/kg lwt 315 315 0% 310 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East 21-Oct $/head 86 na na na na chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder 05-Nov US$/t 3,254 3,133 4%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 2,655 23%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder 05-Nov US$/t 2,924 2,743 7%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 1,997 46%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese 05-Nov US$/t 3,609 3,636 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 3,250 11%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat 05-Nov US$/t 5,191 5,065 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 5,044 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week


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Last reviewed: 5 December 2019
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