Weekly update - 16 May 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 15 May 2019 rainfall was mainly restricted to parts of south-eastern mainland Australia, scattered areas of eastern Queensland and Tasmania. Little to no rainfall was recorded across the remainder of Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres was recorded during the week ending 15  May 2019 across Victoria and South Australia. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded in southern New South Wales cropping regions. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
  • The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average June is more likely for much of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, northern and far south-west Western Australia, parts of South Australia, northern Tasmania and the south of the Northern Territory. There is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average June for the remainder of the country.
  • The rainfall outlook for June to August 2019 indicates that a drier than average winter is more likely across most of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, northern Tasmania, northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Across the remainder of the country, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall outlook scenarios with a 75% chance of occurring indicate that totals of between 25 and 100 millimetres is expected across New South Wales and Victoria between June and August 2019. Meanwhile, falls of between 50 and 200 millimetres are expected for cropping regions in South Australia and Western Australia.
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to become positive from early winter. A positive IOD event typically brings drier conditions to much of southern and central Australia during winter-spring, meaning much of the winter dry signal is likely influenced by the forecast positive IOD.
  • During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across large areas of mainland Australia. Rainfall is likely to be restricted to central, far north, far south-west and the eastern coast of mainland Australia, and Tasmania.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across much of western South Australia and southern Western Australia. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres are expected in southern New South Wales, Victoria and remaining cropping regions in South Australia and Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected for remaining cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 9 May and 15 May 2019 by 27 gigalitres (GL). The 8,260 GL in storage 33 per cent of total capacity. This is 36 percentage points or 4,660 GL less than at the same time last year.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 15  May 2019 rainfall was mostly restricted to parts of south-eastern mainland Australia, scattered areas of eastern Queensland and Tasmania. Little to no rainfall was recorded across the rest of Australia.

Rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres was recorded across parts of southern New South Wales, much of Victoria, scattered areas of eastern Queensland, southern South Australia and much of Tasmania. Higher rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded across isolated parts of central Victoria and north-western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres was recorded during the week ending 15  May 2019 across Victoria and South Australia. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded in southern New South Wales cropping regions. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 15 May 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/05/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 14  May 2019, maximum temperatures were -2°C to -4°C below average across parts of central and eastern Australia. Minimum temperatures were -2°C to -6°C below average across large areas of western, central and north-eastern Australia. In contrast, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C above average across parts of southern Western Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 14 May 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/05/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 14 May 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/05/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current El Niño–like warmth in the central tropical Pacific Ocean is forecast to cool towards more ENSO-neutral levels in the coming months. As a result, the drying influence on Australian climate from a warm tropical Pacific will reduce over the next three months. However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to become positive from early winter. A positive IOD event typically brings drier conditions to much of southern and central Australia during winter-spring, meaning much of the winter dry signal is likely influenced by the forecast positive IOD.

The Bureau's climate model also indicates that atmospheric pressures over much of southern and eastern Australia is likely to be higher than normal, with this signal strongest in June. This increases the chance of drier and warmer than average weather over much of southern and eastern Australia, and may keep cold fronts further to the south than normal.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average June is more likely for much of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, northern and far south-west Western Australia, parts of South Australia, northern Tasmania and the south of the Northern Territory. There is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average June for the remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 May 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall June 2019

 

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are given as a probability (or chance) of exceeding a specified threshold. In the case of the Bureau’s rainfall outlook, it is provided as the chance of rainfall being above median, expressed as a percentage. While this probabilistic rainfall outlook indicates that the chance of exceeding median rainfall is quite low, it does not mean that large areas of eastern Australia will receive no rainfall during the 2019 winter.

The rainfall outlook for June to August 2019 indicates that a drier than average winter is more likely across most of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, northern Tasmania, northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Across the remainder of the country, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 May 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall June to August 2019

 

There is still a significant chance that areas unlikely to exceed median rainfall will receive rainfall sufficient to sustain crop and pasture production. In cropping regions, for example, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 25 and 100 millimetres across much of New South Wales and Victoria between June and August 2019. There is a similar probability of receiving between 50 and 200 millimetres for cropping regions in South Australia and Western Australia.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring June to August 2019

 

The temperature outlook for June to August 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, except for the far north-east coast. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for Western Australia, parts of the north, much of the eastern coast and Tasmania. The forecast drier than average conditions could bring more cloud-free nights, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 May 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature June to August 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature June to August 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across large areas of mainland Australia. Rainfall is likely to be restricted to central, far north, far south-west and the eastern coast of mainland Australia, and Tasmania.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for the north-east of New South Wales, parts of western Victoria, eastern coast of Queensland, southern Western Australia, large areas of central and southern South Australia, western Tasmania and the far north of the Northern Territory. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of the far north-eastern coast of Queensland.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across much of western South Australia and southern Western Australia. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres are expected in southern New South Wales, Victoria and remaining cropping regions in South Australia and Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected for remaining cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 16 May to 23 May 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 09/05/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 16 May 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate15-MayUS$/A$0.70.70%0.75-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf14-MayUS$/t199202-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.242-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf08-MayUS$/t1631602%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.179-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg14-MayUS$/t403405<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.410-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index15-MayUSc/lb79.084.3-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.93.0-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract15-MayUSc/lb11.812.1-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.11.44%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator09-MayAc/kg clean1,9521,960<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,8913%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator10-MayAc/kg clean2,0622,093-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,0182%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA14-MayA$/t244273-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.271-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW15-MayA$/t365375-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.31516%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW15-MayA$/t3693690%32215%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597-na53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW15-MayA$/t3603600%410-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator09-MayAc/kg cwt5004892%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4843%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic10-MayAc/kg cwt5685503%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.46023%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator09-MayAc/kg cwt7657453%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.59828%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers03-MayAc/kg cwt338 3380%26030%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)13-MayAc/kg cwt6806800%48440%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia11-MayAc/kg lwt2802800%2800% chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East13-May$/head13511023%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.9542%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder07-MayUS$/t3,2493,269<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,231<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder07-MayUS$/t2,5212,4622%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,99926%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese07-MayUS$/t4,2174,319-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,0245%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat07-MayUS$/t6,2176,1261%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6,0323%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 4 November 2019
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