Weekly update - 17 January 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 16 January 2019 rainfall was recorded across isolated areas of eastern New South Wales and large areas of northern Australia.
  • In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 25 millimetres was recorded across parts of the southern growing region in New South Wales and northern and central growing regions in Queensland during the week ending 16 January 2019. Little to no rainfall was recorded in other summer cropping regions.
  • For the week ending 15 January 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally well above average across much of the country. Areas of 4°C to 10°C above average maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded across vast areas of central, western and south-eastern Australia.
  • A drier than average February is more likely for parts of eastern, central and western Australia. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average February.
  • The mid-month climate outlook for February 2019 to April 2019 indicates a drier than average three months is more likely for large parts of eastern and southern New South Wales, eastern Queensland, Victoria, western South Australia, Western Australia, and scattered parts of southern Northern Territory. For much of the remainder of the country, there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the far south-east and north of Australia.
  • In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres is expected across parts of northern and eastern Queensland and southern regions of New South Wales. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining summer cropping regions of Queensland and New South Wales.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 10 January 2019 and 17 January 2019 by 140 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 11,032 GL which represents 44 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased from $356 per ML in the week ending 31 December 2018 to $397 per ML in the week ending 7 January 2019.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 16 January 2019 rainfall was recorded across isolated areas of eastern New South Wales and large areas of northern Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across south-eastern New South Wales, parts of eastern and northern Queensland, scattered areas of northern Western Australia, and the north of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of tropical northern Australia.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 25 millimetres was recorded across parts of the southern growing region in New South Wales and northern and central growing regions in Queensland during the week ending 16 January 2019. Little to no rainfall was recorded in other summer cropping regions.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 16 January 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 16/01/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 15 January 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally well above average across much of the country. Areas of 4°C to 10°C above average maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded across vast areas of central, western and south-eastern Australia. Below average (-2°C to -4°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across parts of eastern Queensland and the far west of Western Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 January 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 16/01/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 January 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 16/01/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The Bureau of Meteorology’s mid-month national climate outlook suggests little signal from any of the typical Australian climate drivers, with most in a neutral phase. Therefore, local effects, such as the ocean temperatures around Australia, are likely to be the main influence on climatic conditions in Australia over the next three months.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific cooled to neutral levels during December 2018. The atmospheric component of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation did not respond to the warmer waters during spring 2018, meaning an El Niño event did not become established. The Bureau's ACCESS–S model suggests that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to warm again and are likely to reach El Niño levels during early autumn before returning to neutral levels. 

A drier than average February is more likely for parts of eastern New South Wales and Queensland, parts of south-western Victoria, north-western South Australia, large areas of southern and northern Western Australia and parts of southern Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average February (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 17 January 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall February 2019

 

The rainfall outlook for February 2019 to April 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for large parts of eastern and southern New South Wales, eastern Queensland, Victoria, western South Australia, Western Australia, and scattered parts of southern Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country, there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 17 January 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall February 2019 to April 2019

 

The temperature outlook for February 2019 to April 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average across Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of parts of central Australia, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 17 January 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature February 2019 to April 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature February 2019 to April 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the far south-east and north of Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for much of south-eastern New South Wales, northern Queensland, northern Western Australia and the north of the Northern Territory. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for tropical northern Australia.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres is expected across parts of northern and eastern Queensland and southern regions of New South Wales. Little to no rainfall is expected across other summer cropping regions of Queensland and New South Wales.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 17 to 24 January 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 17/01/2019

Commodities

Current indicators – 17 January 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate16-JanUS$/A$0.720.711%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.0.79-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf15-JanUS$/t239237<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2275%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf16-JanUS$/t167169-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1567%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg15-JanUS$/t4224220%429-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index16-JanUSc/lb82.380.82%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.92.1-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract16-JanUSc/lb13.012.17%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.14.0-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator10-JanAc/kg clean1,910nana1,8185%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator11-JanAc/kg clean1,948nana1,8883%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA15-JanA$/t367371-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.22265%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW16-JanA$/t440445-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.24877%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW16-JanA$/t3953950%28041%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597nana53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW16-JanA$/t3703700%410-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator10-JanAc/kg cwt510nana563-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic18-JanAc/kg cwt4414108%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4088%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator10-JanAc/kg cwt669nana6611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers11-JanAc/kg cwt323nana27717%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)14-JanAc/kg cwt580nana49018%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia15-DecAc/kg lwt3253250%340-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East03-Dec$/head108 na na121-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder02-JanUS$/t2,7772,7053%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,010-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder02-JanUS$/t2,4051,97022%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,81832%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese02-JanUS$/t3,5043,3714%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,486<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat02-JanUS$/t5,2945,1373%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6,547-19%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 4 November 2019
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