Weekly update - 17 September 2020
- During the week ending 16 September 2020, troughs and cold fronts moved over southern Australia and moist onshore flow developed along the east coast of Queensland, bringing moderate rainfall to small parts of Australia. Moderate falls across parts of eastern Australia cropping regions are likely to support current yields and boost soil moisture as the winter cropping season begins to wrap up.
- Global crop production conditions continue to be favourable, with the exception of mixed conditions persisting across parts of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Argentina, Vietnam, China and south of the Russian Federation.
- August rainfall percentiles and current production conditions presented here were used to formulate ABARES forecasts of global grain supplies and the impact on world prices in its September 2020 edition of Agricultural commodities.
- The global climate outlook indicates that average to above average rainfall is more likely between October and December 2020 for most of the world's major grain- and oilseed-producing regions. If realised, this is likely to benefit winter wheat and canola development leading into dormancy and the development of corn, soybeans, sunflower, rice and cotton in the northern hemisphere, and winter wheat and canola production and corn, cotton, soybeans, sunflower planting in Australia.
- Over the next eight days, a complex cut-off low-pressure system is expected to bring showers and storms to much of south-eastern Australia. Across cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across Victoria, South Australia and much of New South Wales. These falls are likely to support favourable winter crop yields and boost soil moisture in south-eastern Australia during the final stages of winter crop development.
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 8 September 2020 and 15 September 2020 by 33 gigalitres (GL). The current volume of water held in storage is 14,055 GL which represents 56 per cent of total capacity.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $310 per ML from 10 September 2020 to $300 per ML 17 September 2020. Prices are lower in the Goulburn-Broken, Murrumbidgee and regions above the Barmah Choke, due to binding of the Goulburn intervalley trade and Murrumbidgee export limits, and the Barmah Choke trade constraint.
Rainfall this week
During the week ending 16 September 2020 troughs and cold fronts moved over southern Australia and moist onshore flow developed along the east coast of Queensland, bringing moderate rainfall to small parts of Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts north-eastern New South Wales, eastern Queensland, southern and western Victoria, western and northern Tasmania and isolated parts of south-eastern South Australia and southern Western Australia. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded across isolated parts of north-eastern Queensland and western Tasmania.
In Australia’s cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of north-eastern New South Wales, central Queensland and south-western Victoria. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions during the week ending 16 September 2020.
The falls in parts of eastern cropping regions are likely to support current yields and boost soil moisture. In contrast, in regions that recorded below average rainfall during winter and have low soil moisture reserves, particularly Western Australia, these dry conditions are likely to be a concern for yield prospect and pasture production as temperatures increase.
Rainfall for the week ending 16 September 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 16/09/2020
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Global production conditions and climate outlook
Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific growth stages, and extreme weather events (IPCC 2012). Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each growth stage, different types of stresses affect each crop type in different ways.
The precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented here give an indication of the current and future state of production conditions for the major grain and oilseed producing countries which are responsible for over 80% of global production. This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook. The August rainfall percentiles and current production conditions presented here were used to formulate ABARES forecasts of global grain supplies and the impact on world prices in its September 2020 edition of Agricultural commodities.
August rainfall percentiles and current production conditions
As of the end of August 2020, rainfall was generally favourable for the world’s major grain and oil producing regions.
In the Northern Hemisphere, August rainfall was above average in parts of the United Kingdom, eastern and central Europe, south-east of the United States, the central-west and south-east of Russia, north-eastern China, central Africa, western and central India and parts of northern Southeast Asia. Rainfall was below average across parts of the central plains of the United States and southern Canada, northern Mexico and Ukraine.
In the southern hemisphere, August rainfall was generally average across Australia and Indonesia, and below average across parts of northern Brazil and western Argentina.
Global precipitation percentiles, August 2020
Note: The world precipitation percentiles indicate a ranking of precipitation for August, with the driest (0th percentile) being 0 on the scale and the wettest (100th percentile) being 1 on the scale. Percentiles are based on precipitation estimates from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's Climate Anomaly Monitoring System Outgoing Precipitation Index dataset. Precipitation estimates for August 2020 are compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the 1981 to 2010 base period.
Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society
As at 28 August 2020 global production conditions were generally favourable.
In the southern hemisphere, conditions for wheat crop development were generally favourable for Australia and mixed for Argentina. In the northern hemisphere, conditions have been variable with dryness decreasing winter wheat yields in the United Kingdom, the European Union, and southern growing regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Conditions were generally favourable for winter wheat harvesting and spring wheat growth in Kazakhstan, Canada and the United States and spring wheat harvesting in China.
Growing conditions for maize were generally favourable for harvest of the autumn-winter crop and for sowing of the spring-summer crop in Mexico. Harvest of the summer-planted crop was well underway in Brazil under mainly exceptional conditions, except for in the south where dry conditions have impacted crop development. Conditions were generally favourable for the United States, Canada, the European Union and India, although there were some mixed conditions due to dryness in parts of the United States, France, Ukraine and the Russian Federation and flooding in China.
Conditions were generally favourable for wet-season rice in Thailand, Japan and the Philippines and for the growth of single-season and late-season rice in China. In the United States, conditions were also favourable. The majority of rice transplanting in India was completed under favourable conditions. In Vietnam, conditions are generally favourable as planting continues in the north and harvest continues in the south, with slightly reduced yields in the south due to dry conditions. In Indonesia, the harvest of dry-season crops is ongoing with reduced yields due to a delayed rainfall onset. At the same time, dry-season crop sowing continues due to unusually high dry-season rainfall delaying planting.
Growing conditions for soybeans were generally favourable in the United States, Canada, Ukraine, China and India for crops due to be harvested in the northern hemisphere autumn, with some mixed conditions due to dryness in the United States and Ukraine. In Australia, growing conditions have been favourable for canola.
Crop conditions, AMIS countries, 28 August 2020
AMIS Agricultural Market Information System.
|Region||October-December rainfall outlook||Potential impact on production|
|Canada||Above average rainfall is more likely for large parts of eastern and south-eastern Canada between October and December 2020.||Average to above average rainfall is likely to benefit corn, soybeans and sunflower maturing leading up to harvest in November.|
|United States||Above average rainfall is more likely for parts of the northern US and below average rainfall is more likely for much of the central-southern US.||Average to above average rainfall is likely to benefit winter wheat and canola development leading up to dormancy in December, below average rainfall is likely to adversely impact this development.|
|Brazil||Above average rainfall is more likely across much of northern and central Brazil and below average rainfall is more likely across parts of southern Brazil between October and December 2020.||Above average rainfall across much of Brazil is likely to benefit soybean planting and development in the central-west between October and December. Below average rainfall in parts of southern Brazil may adversely affect the development of corn and soybeans from October, and the planting and development of groundnuts, sorghum, cotton, sunflower, rice and millet from November.|
|Argentina||Below average rainfall is more likely for parts of the north-east and south-west of Argentina between October and December 2020.||Below average rainfall is likely to adversely affect the development of wheat leading up to harvest in December. These conditions may also impact the planting and development of corn, cotton, soybeans, sunflower, rice, sorghum and millet between October and December 2020.|
|Europe||Average rainfall more likely for most of Europe between October and December 2020.||Average rainfall is likely to support winter wheat and canola planting in October and November leading up to dormancy in December.|
|South Asia (India)||Above average rainfall is likely across parts of north-western and central India and below average rainfall is likely across isolated parts of the north-east and south-east.||Average to above average rainfall is likely to benefit winter wheat and canola planting and development from November. Generally average rainfall in the south is likely to support cotton development leading up to harvest in December.|
|Southeast Asia (SEA)||Above average rainfall is likely for much of SEA, with a strong likelihood of above average rainfall for Indonesia.||Above average rainfall in SEA is likely to support corn and rice yields as harvest beings in October.|
|Black Sea Region||Ukraine - Below average rainfall is likely across central Ukraine.
Kazakhstan - Below average rainfall is likely across the south.
Russia - Above rainfall more likely for parts of northern and eastern Russia and below average for parts of south-eastern Russia.
|Below average rainfall in the south is likely to adversely impact the filling of cotton in Central Asia, and corn and sunflower in October, as well as winter wheat and rapeseed development leading into dormancy in November.|
|China||Above average rainfall is more likely across parts of northern and central China and below average rainfall is more likely across parts of southern China between October and December 2020.||Above average rainfall in the north is likely to support the filling and maturing of late rice and the development of winter wheat and canola leading into dormancy in December. Below average rainfall in parts of southern China may adversely impact the development of these crops.|
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
A complex cut-off low-pressure system is expected to bring showers and storms to much of south-eastern Australia during the week. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for much of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, and parts of south-western and north-eastern Queensland and far south of Western Australia. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres is expected across western Tasmania and isolated parts of mainland alpine areas.
In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across Victoria, South Australia and much of New South Wales. Rainfall totals of between 5 and 10 millimetres are expected across cropping regions in northern New South Wales, southern Queensland and far south‑western and southern Western Australia during the next eight days.
These falls are likely to support favourable winter crop yields and boost soil moisture in south-eastern Australia during the final stages of winter crop development.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 17 September 2020 to 24 September 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 17/09/2020
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Current indicators – 17 September 2020
|Indicator||Week ended||Unit||Latest price||Price week prior||Weekly change||Price 12 months prior||Year on year change||Chart|
Selected World Indicator Prices
|AUD/USD Exchange rate||16-Sep||US$/A$||0.73||0.73||1%||0.68||8%||chart|
|Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf||16-Sep||US$/t||246||244||1%||206||19%||chart|
|Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf||19-Aug||US$/t||150||145||3%||157||-4%||chart|
|Canola – Rapeseed, Canada, fob Vancouver||16-Sep||US$/t||378||401||-6%||361||5%||chart|
|Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index||16-Sep||USc/lb||71||70||0%||71||-1%||chart|
|Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract||16-Sep||USc/lb||12||12||-2%||11||5%||chart|
|Wool – Eastern Market Indicator||09-Sep||Ac/kg clean||890||858||4%||1,754||-49%||chart|
|Wool – Western Market Indicator||09-Sep||Ac/kg clean||922||895||3%||1,995||-54%||chart|
Selected Australian grain export prices
|Milling Wheat – APW, Port Adelaide, SA||16-Sep||A$/t||328||328||0%||368||-11%||chart|
|Feed Wheat – ASW, Port Adelaide, SA||16-Sep||A$/t||313||313||0%||356||-12%||chart|
|Feed Barley – Port Adelaide, SA||16-Sep||A$/t||270||266||1%||335||-19%||chart|
|Canola – Kwinana, WA||16-Sep||A$/t||643||640||0%||659||-2%||chart|
|Grain Sorghum – Brisbane, QLD||16-Sep||A$/t||345||353||-2%||426||-19%||chart|
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
|Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator||16-Sep||Ac/kg cwt||762||767||-1%||488||56%||chart|
|Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic||09-Sep||Ac/kg cwt||512||549||-7%||605||-15%||chart|
|Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator||09-Sep||Ac/kg cwt||680||682||0%||831||-18%||chart|
|Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers||02-Sep||Ac/kg cwt||318||318||0%||357||-11%||chart|
|Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)||09-Sep||Ac/kg cwt||843||843||0%||902||-7%||chart|
|Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia||09-Sep||Ac/kg lwt||355||355||0%||310||15%||chart|
|Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East||11-Dec||$/head||105||140||-25%||N/A||N/A||chart|
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a
|Dairy – Whole milk powder||16-Sep||US$/t||2,985||2,884||4%||2,958||1%||chart|
|Dairy – Skim milk powder||16-Sep||US$/t||2,889||2,663||8%||1,972||47%||chart|
|Dairy – Cheddar cheese||16-Sep||US$/t||3,674||3,428||7%||3,663||0%||chart|
|Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat||16-Sep||US$/t||3,910||3,852||2%||5,709||-32%||chart|
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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