Weekly update - 18 June 2020

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 17 June 2020, substantial rainfall was recorded across eastern Australia, supporting ongoing pasture and crop growth in New South Wales and providing a timely boost to soil moisture in Queensland. This rainfall will likely support crop germination and establishment in Queensland and encourage planting of late sown crops. In contrast, cropping regions in Western Australia still need follow-up rainfall to initiate further planting and support crop growth.
  • As of the end of May 2020, rainfall was mixed for the world’s major grain and oil producing regions.
  • Global crop production conditions are generally favourable, despite dryness across parts of the European Union, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and some equatorial regions.
  • The global climate outlook indicates that average to above average rainfall is more likely between July and September 2020 for most of the world's major grain- and oilseed-producing regions. If realised, this is likely to benefit spring wheat and canola (rapeseed), cotton, rice, corn, grain sorghum, soybean, sunflower and millet production in the northern hemisphere, and winter wheat and canola (rapeseed) production in most southern hemisphere growing regions.
  • Over the next eight days, several cold fronts, low-pressure systems and troughs are expected to result in rainfall across south-eastern and south-western Australia. Across cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across central and southern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, and isolated areas of South Australia and Western Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 10 June 2020 and 17 June 2020 by 157 gigalitres (GL). The current volume of water held in storage is 10,248 GL which represents 40 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah choke increased from $220 per ML on 11 June 2020 to $280 per ML on 18 June 2020. Prices are higher in regions below the Barmah choke and the Murrumbidgee, while remaining lower in the Goulburn-Broken, due to the binding of the Murrumbidgee import limit, Goulburn intervalley trade limit, and restriction of downstream trade below the Barmah choke to 4 GL.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 17 June 2020, rainfall generated by several cold fronts and troughs was primarily recorded across eastern Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern New South Wales and Queensland, isolated parts of southern Australia and Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded across western Tasmania.

In Australia’s cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across much of central and eastern New South Wales, central and eastern Queensland, and isolated parts of south-western Victoria, south-western South Australia and northern wheat belt in Western Australia. Across remaining cropping regions little to no rainfall was recorded during the week ending 17 June 2020.

These falls are likely to support ongoing pasture growth and crop development in New South Wales and provided a timely boost to soil moisture, supporting germination and establishment and encouraging planting of late sown crops in Queensland. In contrast, cropping regions in Western Australia still need follow-up rainfall to initiate further planting and support crop growth.

Rainfall for the week ending 17 June 2020

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 17/06/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Global production conditions and climate outlook

Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific phenological stages, and extreme weather events (IPCC 2012). Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each phenological stage, different types of stresses affect each crop species in different ways.
The precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented here give an indication of the current and future state of production conditions for the major grain and oilseed producing countries which are responsible for over 80% of global production. This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook. The May rainfall percentiles and current production conditions data presented here were used to formulate ABARES forecasts of global grain supplies and the impact on world prices in its June 2020 edition of Agricultural commodities.

May rainfall percentiles and current production conditions

As of the end of May 2020, rainfall was mixed for the world’s major grain and oil producing regions.

In the Northern Hemisphere, May rainfall was below average in parts of the United Kingdom (UK), the central-west of the United States (US) and southern Canada. In contrast, it was above average across the Ukraine, parts of north-west and south-east of the US, western and northern Russia, northern India and southern Asia.

In the Southern Hemisphere, May rainfall was general average in Brazil and below average in parts of Argentina and southern Australia. 

Global precipitation percentiles, May 2020

global_precipitation_percentiles_may2020.png

Note: The world precipitation percentiles indicate a ranking of precipitation for May, with the driest (0th percentile) being 0 on the scale and the wettest (100th percentile) being 1 on the scale. Percentiles are based on precipitation estimates from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's Climate Anomaly Monitoring System Outgoing Precipitation Index dataset. Precipitation estimates for May 2020 are compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the 1981 to 2010 base period.
Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society

As at 28 May 2020 global production conditions are generally favourable.

In the southern hemisphere, conditions for wheat sowing are generally favourable for Australia and mixed for Argentina. In the northern hemisphere, conditions are mixed for wheat crop development in the European Union and Ukraine, and generally favourable for crop development and sowing in the United States, Canada and China. Conditions are favourable in the Russian Federation with the exception of southern regions, where winter wheat yields have been affected by drought conditions.

Growing conditions for maize are generally favourable for ongoing harvest in India and Mexico. Sowing conditions have been favourable for the United States, mixed for Canada and the European Union and unfavourable in Ukraine. Conditions for crop development in Brazil are mixed. Conditions are generally favourable in South Africa and in Argentina as the season ends.

Conditions are favourable for rice development in China and for the end of harvest in India. Harvest is ongoing under mixed conditions for rice in the northern countries of South-East Asia and for wet-season rice in Indonesia.

Growing conditions for soybeans are favourable for ongoing harvest in Argentina. Conditions are generally favourable for sowing in the United States, Canada and China. Conditions are mixed in Ukraine due to low soil moisture in the south and low air temperatures elsewhere.

crop_monitor_20200528.png

AMIS Agricultural Market Information System. Source: AMIS

Rainfall outlook and potential impact on future the state of production conditions between July and September
Region July-Sept rainfall outlook Potential impact on production
Canada There is no strong tendency towards either above or below average rainfall for most of Canada between July and September 2020. (Released 31 May) Spring wheat and canola (rapeseed) will be flowering in July and corn, soybeans and sunflower will be flowering in August.
United States Above average rainfall is slightly more likely for much of eastern US and below average is rainfall slightly more likely in parts of north-west US. (Released 21 May) Above average rainfall between July and September 2020 is likely to benefit cotton, rice, corn, sorghum and groundnuts flowering in July and soybean, sunflower and millet flowering during August.
Brazil Above average rainfall is more likely in parts of the north and below average rainfall is more likely for parts of the south. Below average rainfall in southern Brazil between July and September 2020 may adversely affect wheat heading in August.
Argentina Below average rainfall is more likely in parts of southern Argentina between July and September 2020. Below average rainfall between July and September 2020 my adversely affect wheat heading in September.
Europe Below average rainfall slightly more likely for parts of western and southern Europe between July and September 2020. Spring wheat heading in northern Europe is likely to benefit from average rainfall and corn, cotton and sunflower flowering in southern Europe may be impacted if below average rainfall eventuates during July.
South Asia (India) Above average rainfall likely across India between July and September 2020. (IRI and MMCF5 Released in May) Above average rainfall between July and September 2020 is likely to benefit corn, sorghum, rice, millet, groundnut and sunflower flowering in August and southern cotton blooming in September.
Southeast Asia (SEA) Above average rainfall for southern SEA and average rainfall for northern SEA and the Philippines between July and September 2020. Average to above average rainfall between July and September 2020 is likely to benefit corn and rice production SEA.
Black Sea Region Kazakhstan and Russia - No strong tendency towards either above or below average rainfall between July and September 2020.
Ukraine - Below average rainfall more likely between July and September 2020.
Average rainfall between July and September 2020 is likely to support spring barley and wheat, and corn production during July and winter wheat planting in September in Kazakhstanand Russia; while below average rainfall may adversely affect spring barley and wheat production, corn, sunflower flowering in July and winter wheat planting in September in Ukraine.
China Below average rainfall likely across parts of north-western China and above average rainfall likely in parts of eastern China between July and September 2020. (Released in May) Average to above average rainfall between July and September 2020 is likely to support cotton, rice, corn, sorghum, soybean, sunflower and groundnut flowering during July and late rice heading in September.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Several cold fronts, low-pressure systems and troughs are expected to result in rainfall across south-eastern and south-western Australia over the next eight days. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of eastern and southern New South Wales, isolated areas of north-eastern Queensland, eastern and southern Victoria, south-eastern South Australia, the south-west of Western Australia and much of Tasmania. Falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast across parts of northern and eastern Tasmania and isolated areas of north-eastern Queensland.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across much of central and southern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, and isolated areas of South Australia and Western Australia. Rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres is expected across remaining cropping regions during the next eight days, with the exception of Queensland were little or no rainfall is expected.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 18 June 2020 to 25 June 2020

: Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/06/2020

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 18 June 2020

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the firs

Indicator Week ended Unit Latest price Price week prior Weekly change Price 12 months prior Year on year change Chart

Selected World Indicator Prices

AUD/USD Exchange rate 17-Jun US$/A$ 0.67 0.69 -3% 0.70 -4% chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf 17-Jun US$/t 215 220 -2% 230 -6% chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf 17-Jun US$/t 149 148 1% 199 -25% chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Canada, fob Vancouver 17-Jun US$/t 369 373 -1% 362 2% chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index 17-Jun USc/lb 67 68 -2% 77 -13% chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract 17-Jun USc/lb 12 12 0% 13 -3% chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator 03-Jun Ac/kg clean 1,183 1,170 1% 1,943 -39% chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator 27-May Ac/kg clean 1,239 1,214 2% 2,127 -42% chart

Selected Australian grain export prices

Milling Wheat – APW, Port Adelaide, SA 17-Jun A$/t 323 349 -7% 369 -13% chart
Feed Wheat – ASW, Port Adelaide, SA 17-Jun A$/t 308 339 -9% 365 -16% chart
Feed Barley – Port Adelaide, SA 17-Jun A$/t 277 277 0% 359 -23% chart
Canola – Kwinana, WA 17-Jun A$/t 645 628 3% 590 9% chart
Grain Sorghum – Brisbane, QLD 17-Jun A$/t 390 384 2% 395 -1% chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator b 17-Jun Ac/kg cwt 763 745 2% 423 81% chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic b 10-Jun Ac/kg cwt 672 696 -3% 397 69% chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator b 10-Jun Ac/kg cwt 906 936 -3% 664 36% chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers 03-Jun Ac/kg cwt 289 329 -12% 338 -14% chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) 10-Jun Ac/kg cwt 748 760 -2% 798 -6% chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia 10-Jun Ac/kg lwt 340 330 3% 280 21% chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East 11-Dec $/head 105 140 -25% N/A N/A chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder 17-Jun US$/t 2,829 2,761 2% 3,231 -12% chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder 17-Jun US$/t 2,609 2,530 3% 1,999 31% chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese 17-Jun US$/t 3,631 3,520 3% 4,024 -10% chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat 17-Jun US$/t 3,993 3,960 1% 6,032 -34% chart

t and third Tuesday of each month.
b Note that several indicator price series for livestock are temporarily suspended. More information and temporary replacement series can be found at https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/market-news/changes-to-mlas-market-reporting/

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

The Tableau dashboard may not meet accessibility requirements. For information about the contents of these dashboards contact ABARES.

 
Last reviewed: 18 June 2020
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