Weekly update - 21 September 2017

During the week ending 20 September 2017 rainfall was restricted to south-eastern, south-western and far north-eastern parts of Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across the rest of the country. Rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern New South Wales, most of Victoria, parts of northern Queensland, far south eastern South Australia, isolated areas around Perth in Western Australia and most of Tasmania. Rainfall totals exceeded 50 millimetres in western Tasmania, the Latrobe Valley in Victoria, and around Cairns, including the highest recorded weekly total of 215 millimetres at Babinda.

Rainfall - week ending 20 September 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/09/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

During the week ending 19 September 2017 maximum temperatures were generally close to average across most of Australia with the exception of Western Australia where temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average. Minimum temperatures ranged from below average (-2°C to -6°C) in northern Australia and isolated parts of eastern Australia to above average (2°C to 6°C) in Western Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 19 September 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/09/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 19 September 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/09/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Following a particularly dry winter across much of eastern and southern Australia, rainfall totals for September-to-date (1 to 20 September) are currently tracking at less than 20 per cent of the long-term monthly average for September across most of Australia. The areas of exception include the Gascoyne region and southern coastal parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria where month-to-date totals either exceed or are close to the September average. Month-to-date rainfall is also close to average in far northern Queensland and western Tasmania.

The continued dry conditions are particularly evident across New South Wales and Queensland. This is likely to lead to further reduced yield prospects for winter crops in central west New South Wales and delay summer crop plantings in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Rainfall percentages 1 to 20 September 2017

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

The impact of dry conditions recorded for September-to-date are likely to be further exacerbated by well above average temperatures forecast on 23 September, with maximum temperatures across most cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland forecast to reach between 33°C and 39°C. This is in excess of 10 degrees above average maximum for many parts of the state. The heat poses a risk for winter crops during the temperature sensitive flowering and grain fill stages of development and is likely to increase moisture stress in crops and pastures.

Forecast maximum temperature 23 September 2017

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

On 5 September 2017, the Bushfire & Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) released the Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2017. It reports that large parts of the country face above normal bushfire potential for the fire season due to a combination of above average temperatures and below average rainfall from May to August 2017. In addition, the outlook for warmer spring conditions suggest that the southern fire season is likely to commence earlier than usual and be more active than normal.

For further information, visit Bushfire & Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre website

Southern Australia seasonal bushfire outlook 2017

Source: Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2017, 5 September 2017

Rainfall is expected to be mainly restricted to south-western and south-eastern Australia during the next eight days with little to no rainfall forecast for the remainder of the country. Totals between 5 and 100 millimetres are forecast for south-western Western Australia with totals exceeding 100 millimetres in far southern parts. Totals between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected in alpine regions of New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, and the far south of South Australia. Similar totals are forecast for most of Tasmania, with higher totals on the west coast (50 to 150 millimetres).

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 21 to 28 September 2017

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 21/09/2017

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week to 21 September 2017 by 58 gigalitres (GL) to 16,903 GL and are at 75 per cent of total capacity. This is 76 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 21 September 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

The NSW DPI - Water on 15 September 2017 announced allocation increases of:

• 4% for NSW Murrumbidgee general security to 33%
• 8% for NSW Murray general security to 28%

The Resource Manager for Northern Victoria on 15 September 2017 announced seasonal determination increases of:

• 9% for Victoria Broken high reliability to 36%
• 9% for Victoria Campaspe low reliability to 16%
• 11% for Victoria Goulburn high reliability to 71%
• 11% for Victoria Loddon high reliability to 71%
• 8% for Victoria Murray high reliability to 98%

(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin fell slightly in the week up to 21 September 2017 in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern system decreased slightly to $116 per megalitre. This is a decrease of $5 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $131 in August across the whole southern MDB.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 21 September 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	20-Sep	US$/A$	0.8	0.8	0%	0.75	7%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	19-Sep	US$/t	218	212	3%	193	13%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	20-Sep	US$/t	145	148	-2%	151	-4%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	19-Sep	US$/t	437	430	2%	421	4%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	20-Sep	USc/lb	79.2	82.8	-4%	77.4	2%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	20-Sep	USc/lb	14.2	14.2	0%​	21.7	-35%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicatora	14-Sep	Ac/kg clean	1,525	1,556	-2%	1,311	16%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicatora	08-Sep	Ac/kg clean	1,600	1,609	<1%	1,407	14%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	19-Sep	A$/t	221	217	2%	210	5%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	20-Sep	A$/t	248	257	-4%	231	7%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	20-Sep	A$/t	246	246	0%	178	38%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	18-Sep	A$/t	508	497	2%	488	4%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	20-Sep	A$/t	314	309	2%	204	54%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	14-Sep	Ac/kg cwt	524	542	-3%	712	-26%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	15-Sep	Ac/kg cwt	397	401	<1%	410	-3%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	14-Sep	Ac/kg cwt	597	613	-3%	613	-3%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	01-Sep	Ac/kg cwt	277	277	0%	377	-27%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	18-Sep	Ac/kg cwt	466	470	<1%	579	-20%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	16-Sep	Ac/kg lwt	330	320	3%	360	-8%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	18-Sep	$/head	117	113	4%	98	19%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	19-Sep	US$/t	3,122	3,100	<1%	2,782	12%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	19-Sep	US$/t	1,920	1,944	-1%	2,293	-16%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	19-Sep	US$/t	4,032	4,118	-2%	3,518	15%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	19-Sep	US$/t	6,764	6,405	6%	4,998	35%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution