Weekly update - 25 June 2020

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 24 June 2020, rainfall generated by cold fronts and troughs was primarily recorded across south-eastern and south-western Australia. These falls are likely to support ongoing pasture growth and crop development across most growing regions in southern Australia.
  • Australian climatic conditions for the remainder of June and early July are expected to be mainly influenced by a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and high-pressure systems. During winter, a positive SAM typically results in less rainfall for large areas of southern Australia.
  • It is expected that further cooling in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean will occur and a La Niña-like pattern could emerge, potentially contributing to the above average winter to early spring rainfall outlook for parts of Australia.
  • There is a high chance that rainfall between July and September will be sufficient to sustain crop and pasture development. Across much of New South Wales, Victoria, southern South Australia and southern Western Australia, for example, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 50 and 200 millimetres between July and September 2020.
  • Over the next eight days, persistent high-pressure systems are expected to limit rainfall over southern Australia. Across cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across parts of the central and northern wheat belt of Western Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 17 June 2020 and 24 June 2020 by 214 gigalitres (GL). The current volume of water held in storage is 10,492 GL which represents 41 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah choke decreased from $280 per ML on 18 June 2020 to $180 per ML on 25 June 2020. The Murrumbidgee import limit is currently binding, which has resulted in higher prices in the Murrumbidgee relative to other catchments.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 24 June 2020, rainfall generated by cold fronts and troughs was primarily recorded across south-eastern and south-western Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern and southern New South Wales, Victoria, south-eastern South Australia, south-western Western Australia, Tasmania and isolated parts of north-eastern Queensland. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded across small areas of south-eastern and south-western Australia, and much of Tasmania.

In Australia’s cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across much of central and southern New South Wales, the northern and central wheat belt in Western Australia, and parts of Victoria and South Australia. Across remaining cropping regions little to no rainfall was recorded during the week ending 24 June 2020.

These falls are likely to support ongoing pasture growth and crop development across most growing regions in southern Australia.

Rainfall for the week ending 24 June 2020

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 24/06/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Climate Drivers

Following a generally favourable start to the winter cropping season in Australia, there is interest in how the remainder of winter and early spring may pan out. To gain some insight it is important to look at the major climate drivers—the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—that influence winter and spring rainfall across southern Australia. If negative IOD or La Niña conditions were to eventuate as forecast by a range of international climate models, these key climate drivers would become the major influencing factor for late winter and spring rainfall across southern Australia.

For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral and likely to remain neutral through winter. It is expected that further cooling in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean will occur and a La Niña-like pattern could emerge, potentially contributing to the above average winter outlook for parts of Australia.

Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies for NINO3.4 region

enso_outlook_20200620.png

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and while the Bureau’s model suggests it is likely to remain neutral, half of the international models surveyed suggest a negative IOD could develop in late winter or spring. A negative IOD typically brings above average rainfall to southern Australia during winter and spring.

Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies for IOD region

iod_outlook_20200620.png

The outlook for the remainder of June and early July is influenced mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and high-pressure systems. The SAM is expected to remain positive into early July and during winter typically results in less rainfall for the south-west of Western Australia, southern Victoria and Tasmania.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM) daily index

sam_outlook_20200620.png

In the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest Climate Driver Update, their ENSO Outlook has been raised to La Niña WATCH. This means that while the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, the chance of a La Niña forming during the southern hemisphere spring has increased to around 50% - twice the normal likelihood.

This status change follows cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean and an increase in the number of climate models suggesting La Niña thresholds may be reached in the coming months.

Difference from average sea surface temperature observations 15 June to 21 June 2020

sst_differencefromaverage_20200615_20200621.png

A La Niña WATCH is not a guarantee that a La Niña will occur; it is an indication that some of the typical precursors of an event are in place. Roughly half the surveyed climate models suggest that an event is likely to develop during the southern hemisphere spring.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall outlooks presented here show the rainfall amounts which have a 75% chance of occurring during the next month and the next three month period because these help to show whether conditions for agricultural production will be favourable. The temperature outlooks presented here show how far above or below the 1990-2012 average the temperature is likely to be. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests above average rainfall is likely for parts of Western Australia and South Australia during July 2020, with roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier July across the remainder of Australia. The rainfall outlook for July to September 2020 suggests that wetter than average conditions are likely for much of Australia, particularly across eastern Australia. However, there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months across parts of far northern Australia, southern Victoria, south-western Western Australia and Tasmania (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 18 June 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July to September 2020

rain.forecast.median.national.season1.20200625.png

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/06/2020

The outlook for July 2020 suggests that there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres across south-eastern, south-western and far southern Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres are likely across isolated parts of south-eastern Australia, far south-western Australia and much of Tasmania.

In cropping regions there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres across much of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. In Queensland there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 5 and 10 millimetres across southern growing regions for July 2020.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring July 2020

rain_forecast_calib_scenario_75_national_month1_latest_hr_0.png

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/06/2020

The outlook for July to September 2020 suggests that there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 50 and 200 millimetres across south-eastern, south-western, and far southern Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 200 millimetres are likely across isolated parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia and northern and western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 50 and 200 millimetres across New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Across cropping regions in Queensland there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 10 millimetres in the north and 100 millimetres in the south between July and September 2020.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring July to September 2020

rain_forecast_calib_scenario_75_national_season1_latest_hr_0.png

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/06/2020

In many areas where soil moisture is close to average to above average for this time of year, there is a good chance of recording July to September rainfall totals sufficient to sustain crop and pasture production. Across much of New South Wales, Victoria, southern South Australia and southern Western Australia, for example, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 50 and 200 millimetres between July and September 2020.

The temperature outlook for July to September 2020 indicates that daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be between 1°C to 2°C above the 1990-2012 average across parts of the northern half of Australia. Average (- 1°C to 1°C) daytime and night-time temperatures are likely for the remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 18 June 2020).

Predicted maximum temperature anomaly for July to September 2020

tmax.forecast.calib_.anom_.national.season1.latest.hr__0.png
 

Predicted minimum temperature anomaly for July to September 2020

tmin.forecast.calib_.anom_.national.season1.latest.hr__0.png

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Persistent high-pressure systems over southern Australia are expected to limit rainfall over the next eight days. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of south-western Western Australia, Tasmania and isolated parts of north-eastern Queensland, Victoria and south-eastern South Australia. Falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast across isolated parts of south-western Western Australia.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across parts of the central and northern wheat belt of Western Australia. Rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres is expected in cropping regions across parts of southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and remaining cropping regions in Western Australia during the next eight days.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 25 June 2020 to 2 July 2020

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/06/2020

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 25 June 2020

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the firs

Indicator Week ended Unit Latest price Price week prior Weekly change Price 12 months prior Year on year change Chart

Selected World Indicator Prices

AUD/USD Exchange rate 24-Jun US$/A$ 0.67 0.67 0% 0.70 -4% chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf 24-Jun US$/t 213 215 -1% 220 -3% chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf 24-Jun US$/t 148 149 -1% 186 -21% chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Canada, fob Vancouver 24-Jun US$/t 372 369 1% 363 2% chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index 24-Jun USc/lb 68 67 2% 78 -12% chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract 24-Jun USc/lb 12 12 -1% 12 -4% chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator 24-Jun Ac/kg clean 1,110 1,183 -6% 1,960 -43% chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator 24-Jun Ac/kg clean 1,176 1,239 -5% 2,104 -44% chart

Selected Australian grain export prices

Milling Wheat – APW, Port Adelaide, SA 24-Jun A$/t 323 323 0% 368 -12% chart
Feed Wheat – ASW, Port Adelaide, SA 24-Jun A$/t 307 308 0% 364 -16% chart
Feed Barley – Port Adelaide, SA 24-Jun A$/t 279 277 1% 358 -22% chart
Canola – Kwinana, WA 24-Jun A$/t 649 645 1% 596 9% chart
Grain Sorghum – Brisbane, QLD 24-Jun A$/t 383 390 -2% 388 -1% chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator b 17-Jun Ac/kg cwt 763 745 2% 423 81% chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic b 10-Jun Ac/kg cwt 672 696 -3% 397 69% chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator b 10-Jun Ac/kg cwt 906 936 -3% 664 36% chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers 03-Jun Ac/kg cwt 289 329 -12% 338 -14% chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) 10-Jun Ac/kg cwt 748 760 -2% 798 -6% chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia 10-Jun Ac/kg lwt 340 330 3% 280 21% chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East 11-Dec $/head 105 140 -25% N/A N/A chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder 17-Jun US$/t 2,829 2,761 2% 3,231 -12% chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder 17-Jun US$/t 2,609 2,530 3% 1,999 31% chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese 17-Jun US$/t 3,631 3,520 3% 4,024 -10% chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat 17-Jun US$/t 3,993 3,960 1% 6,032 -34% chart

t and third Tuesday of each month.
b Note that several indicator price series for livestock are temporarily suspended. More information and temporary replacement series can be found at https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/market-news/changes-to-mlas-market-reporting/

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

The Tableau dashboard may not meet accessibility requirements. For information about the contents of these dashboards contact ABARES.

 
Last reviewed: 25 June 2020
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