Weekly update - 26 April 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 25 April 2019 rainfall was recorded across large areas of eastern Australia and isolated areas of northern and southern Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 150 millimetres was recorded during the week ending 25 April 2019 across southern New South Wales and western Queensland. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded in eastern Victoria, much of the remainder of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales and Victoria.
  • For the week ending 23 April 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally 2°C to 6°C above average across large parts of south-eastern Australia, and parts of north-western and central Australia. In contrast, maximum and minimum temperatures were -2°C to   -6°C below average across the south-western quarter of western Australia.
  • The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average end to autumn is more likely for much of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average May is likely for the far north-eastern coast of Queensland and Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory. Elsewhere across the country, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average May.
  • The rainfall outlook for May to July 2019 indicates that a wetter than average three months is more likely across most of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and central Australia. Across the remainder of the country, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months
  • During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across much of mainland Australia. Rainfall is likely to be restricted to the eastern Queensland, and the far north and south-east of mainland Australia, and Tasmania.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 25 millimetres is expected across much of New South Wales, northern Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Little to no rainfall is expected across the cropping regions in Western Australia and southern Queensland.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 17 April and 24 April 2019 by 187 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 8,250 GL which represents 33 per cent of total capacity. This is 36 percentage points or 4,740 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased marginally from $497 per ML in the week ending 8 April 2019 to $501 per ML in the week ending 15 April 2019, although the volume traded remains low.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 25 April 2019 rainfall was recorded across large areas of eastern Australia and isolated areas of northern and southern Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of north-eastern, western and southern New South Wales, large areas of southern and eastern Queensland, isolated areas of eastern Victoria and western South Australia, scattered areas of northern and southern Western Australia, parts of western Tasmania and the far north-east of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of western New South Wales and southern and eastern Queensland.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 150 millimetres was recorded during the week ending 25 April 2019 across southern New South Wales and western Queensland. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded in eastern Victoria, much of the remainder of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales and Victoria.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 25 April 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/04/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 23  April 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally 2°C to 6°C above average across large parts of south-eastern Australia, and parts of north-western and central Australia. In contrast, maximum and minimum temperatures were -2°C to -6°C below average across the south-western quarter of western Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 23 April 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/04/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 23 April 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/04/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been hovering around the El Niño threshold for approximately two months, however the atmosphere has yet to show a consistent El Niño-like response. The majority of international climate models indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain at or above El Niño thresholds heading into the Australian winter before returning to neutral values as spring approaches.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to remain neutral throughout the outlook period. This means the IOD has little influence on this outlook.

With Australia's major climate drivers remaining neutral, secondary influences are likely to be influencing this outlook. The Bureau's climate model indicates higher than average pressure is likely over eastern Australia, particularly during May. This increases the chance of warmer and drier than average weather. It is also likely to be directing stronger onshore flow over the far north coast of Queensland, contributing to the wetter than average outlook for this region.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average end to autumn is more likely for much of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average May is likely for the far north-eastern coast of Queensland and Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory. Elsewhere across the country, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average May (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 April 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall May 2019

 

The rainfall outlook for May to July 2019 indicates that a wetter than average three months is more likely across most of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and central Australia. However, it is a seasonally dry time of year for much of this region, meaning only a small amount of rainfall is needed during this period to exceed the median. Across the remainder of the country, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 April 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall May to July 2019

 

The temperature outlook for May to July 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, except the far southwest coast, with a very high chance ( greater than 80%) across large parts of eastern and northern Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for May to July, however, the forecast drier than average conditions could bring more cloud-free nights, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 April 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature May to July 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature May to July 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across much of mainland Australia. Rainfall is likely to be restricted to the eastern Queensland, and the far north and south-east of mainland Australia, and Tasmania.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of southern New South Wales, northern and eastern Queensland, Victoria, the far south-east of South Australia, Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of eastern and northern Queensland and western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 25 millimetres is expected across much of New South Wales, northern Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Little to no rainfall is expected across the cropping regions in Western Australia and southern Queensland.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 26 April to 3 May 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/04/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 18 April 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate24-AprUS$/A$0.710.72-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.77-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf23-AprUS$/t212218-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.238-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf24-AprUS$/t160163-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.175-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg23-AprUS$/t406409<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.410<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index24-AprUSc/lb87.787.1<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.92.3-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract24-AprUSc/lb12.612.7<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.11.312%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator18-AprAc/kg clean1,9431,936<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,8256%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator19-AprAc/kg clean2,0652,064<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,9347%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA23-AprA$/t298302-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.24522%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW24-AprA$/t390392<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.30030%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW24-AprA$/t365380-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.30022%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597 nana53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW24-AprA$/t3803800%410-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator11-AprAc/kg cwt481505-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.523-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic19-AprAc/kg cwt489488<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4489%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator11-AprAc/kg cwt7136972%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.57225%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers19-AprAc/kg cwt341 342<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.26927%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)15-AprAc/kg cwt6266260%46834%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia20-AprAc/kg lwt2802800%2800%chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East04-Mar$/head1051050%124-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder17-AprUS$/t3,2693,287<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,311-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder17-AprUS$/t2,4622,468<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,91329%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese17-AprUS$/t4,3194,2482%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,85512%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat17-AprUS$/t6,1265,8674%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6,120<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 4 November 2019
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