Weekly update - 28 March 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 27 March 2019 rainfall was recorded across vast areas of northern and eastern Australia, and parts of western Australia. Severe tropical cyclones Trevor and Veronica have brought rainfall totals in excess of 200 millimetres to the Cape York Peninsula, Gulf Country, eastern Northern Territory and south-western Queensland and north-western Western Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres was recorded across part of northern Queensland, central New South Wales and north-eastern Western Australia during the week ending 27 March 2019. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales, southern Queensland, as well as parts of Victoria, eastern South Australia and southern Western Australia.
  • For the week ending 26 March 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally above average across much of the country.
  • The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that for most of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average April. A drier than average April is more likely for isolated parts of western New South Wales, north-western Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and northern Western Australia. In contrast, isolated parts of northern Queensland and the north of the Northern Territory have an increased chance of being wetter than usual.
  • The rainfall outlook for April to June 2019 indicates that there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months across most of Australia. A wetter than average three months is more likely for isolated parts of northern Queensland, scattered parts of central Western Australia and isolated parts of north of the Northern Territory.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across all states and territories, with the heaviest falls likely to be restricted to northern and eastern Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 25 and 100 millimetres is expected across northern Queensland, and isolated areas in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Lower rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres are expected across the remaining cropping regions in Queensland and across eastern New South Wales.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 20 March and 27 March 2019 by 136 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 8,748 GL which represents 35 per cent of total capacity. This is 36 percentage points or 4,905 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased from $455 per ML in the week ending 11 March 2019 to $482 per ML in the week ending 18 March 2019.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 27 March 2019 rainfall was recorded across vast areas of northern and eastern Australia, and parts of western Australia. Severe tropical cyclone Trevor produced heavy rainfall exceeding 200 millimetres across the Cape York Peninsula, Gulf Country, eastern Northern Territory and south-western Queensland. Meanwhile, severe tropical cyclone Veronica brought rainfall exceeding 400 millimetres to the Pilbara coast as it approached northern Western Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern and central New South Wales, northern and central Queensland, northern and inland Western Australia, eastern South Australia and across the north of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were also recorded in isolated parts of eastern Victoria, and across areas of western Tasmania and the north-west of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres was recorded across part of northern Queensland, central New South Wales and north-eastern Western Australia during the week ending 27 March 2019. Lighter falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales and southern Queensland, as well as parts of Victoria, eastern South Australia and southern Western Australia.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 27 March 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/03/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 26  March 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally above average across much of the country. Areas of 2°C to 6°C above average maximum temperatures were recorded across large parts of central and eastern Australia. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across parts of Western Australia, and vast areas of central and eastern Australia. Maximum temperatures were -2°C to -6°C below average in isolated parts northern and southern Western Australia, and the south of Southern Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 March 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/03/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 March 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/03/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average and there is a reasonable chance that El Niño will develop during autumn 2019. El Niño typically results in reduced rainfall for southern Australia during autumn and reduced rainfall for eastern Australia during winter and spring.

Other climate influences relevant to this latest outlook relate to the temperature of the oceans surrounding Australia. While the Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to remain neutral through autumn, it is projected that towards the end of the forecast period, the central and western tropics in the Indian Ocean will be warmer than normal and the waters off Western Australia will be cooler than average. This pattern tends to move the focus of rainfall away from Australia, and reduces the amount of moisture in the air that travels over western and southern Australia.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that for most of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average April. A drier than average April is more likely for isolated parts of western New South Wales, north-western Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and northern Western Australia. In contrast, isolated parts of northern Queensland and the north of the Northern Territory have an increased chance of being wetter than usual (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 March 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall April 2019

 

The rainfall outlook for April to June 2019 indicates that there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months across most of Australia. A wetter than average three months is more likely for the isolated parts of northern Queensland, scattered parts of central Western Australia and isolated parts of north of the Northern Territory. In contrast, isolated areas of southern Australia and the Northern Territory have an increased chance of being drier than average (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 March 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall April to June 2019

 

The temperature outlook for April to June 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with a very high chance, greater than 80%, across eastern and north-western Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 March 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature April to June 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature April to June 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across all states and territories, with the heaviest falls likely to be restricted to northern and eastern Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, much of northern and eastern Queensland, western Tasmania and north of the Northern Territory. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for the Cape York Peninsula and north-eastern Queensland and the far north of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 25 and 100 millimetres is expected across northern Queensland, and isolated areas in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Lower rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres are expected across the remaining cropping regions in Queensland and across eastern New South Wales.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 28 March to 4 April 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/03/2019

Commodities

Current indicators – 28 March 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate27-MarUS$/A$0.710.710%0.77-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf26-MarUS$/t2242211%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.234-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf27-MarUS$/t1701681%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1700% chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg26-MarUS$/t408406<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.426-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index27-MarUSc/lb86.284.12%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.91.4-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract27-MarUSc/lb12.612.5<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.12.5<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator21-MarAc/kg clean1,9631,979<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,77810%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator22-MarAc/kg clean2,1042,127-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,86913%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA26-MarA$/t2962806%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.24023%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW27-MarA$/t4054050%27846%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW27-MarA$/t3603600%27929%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597nana53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW27-MarA$/t3803800%410-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator21-MarAc/kg cwt44139312%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.544-19%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic22-MarAc/kg cwt4113886%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.455-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator21-MarAc/kg cwt6476401%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6195%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers15-MarAc/kg cwt3393312%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.27324%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)25-MarAc/kg cwt6166160%46832%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia23-MarAc/kg lwt3003000%310-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East04-Mar$/head105 105 0%124-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder20-MarUS$/t3,3173,1864%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,2263%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder20-MarUS$/t2,4052,462-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,88727%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese20-MarUS$/t4,0363,8884%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,60912%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat20-MarUS$/t5,6625,837-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,249-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 4 November 2019
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