Weekly update - 28 November 2019

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 27 November 2019 rainfall was restricted to scattered areas of southern, eastern and northern Australia.
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of northern New South Wales and south-western Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland, and cropping regions in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
  • A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and periods of negative Southern Annual Mode (SAM) continue to influence Australia's weather, likely contributing to the below average rainfall, above average temperatures and the increased bushfire activity experienced in spring.
  • IOD and SAM are expected to continue to influence Australian climate during December, with a warmer and drier than average outlook for December, but weaken as an influences on the weather from January 2020.
  • The rainfall outlook for December 2019 to February 2020 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across most of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average December to February is more likely for the north-west of Western Australia.
  • Over the next eight days, rainfall is likely to be restricted to parts of south-eastern and the far north of Australia.
  • Across Australia’s cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates that 5 and 15 millimetres are expected across parts of northern and southern New South Wales, Victoria and southern Queensland. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 20 November and 27 November 2019 by 142 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 9,538 GL which represents 38 per cent of total capacity. This is 25 percentage points or 3,139 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray Below the Barmah Choke decreased from $925 per ML on 21 November 2019 to $870 per ML on 28 November 2019.

Climate

[expand all]

Rainfall this week

During the week ending 27 November 2019 rainfall was restricted to scattered areas of southern, eastern and northern Australia.

Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of northern New South Wales and south-western Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland, and cropping regions in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.

Rainfall for the week ending 27 November 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/11/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 26 November  2019, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 10°C above average across most of Australia. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across New South Wales and large areas of southern Queensland, Western Australia and central areas of the Northern Territory. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 November 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/11/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 November 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/11/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral and expected to remain neutral until at least early 2020. A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and periods of negative Southern Annual Mode (SAM) continue to influence Australia's weather, likely contributing to the below average rainfall, above average temperatures and the increased bushfire activity experienced in spring. The IOD and SAM are expected to continue to influence Australian climate during December, with a warmer and drier than average outlook for December, but weaken as an influences on the weather from January 2020.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average December is more likely for most of the country. In contrast, a wetter than average December is more likely across parts of western Tasmania and the north-west of Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 November 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2019

Map showing chance of exceeding median rainfall during the next month in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are given as a probability (or chance) of exceeding a specified rainfall or temperature threshold. In the case of the Bureau’s rainfall outlook, it is represented as the chance of rainfall being above median, expressed as a percentage. While this probabilistic forecast indicates that there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months for much of Australia, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to ease current long-term deficiencies.

The rainfall outlook for December 2019 to February 2020 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across most of eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average December to February is more likely for the north-west of Western Australia. Across remainder of Australia, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 November 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2019 to February 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

The temperature outlook for December 2019 to February 2020 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia, with the exception of most of Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and Tasmania where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 November 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature December 2019 to February 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median maximum temperature for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature December 2019 to February 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median minimum temperature for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of south-eastern and the far north of Australia. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of eastern Victoria, the far north of the Northern Territory and Queensland, and western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 15 millimetres are expected across parts of northern and southern New South Wales, Victoria and southern Queensland. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 28 November to 5 December 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/11/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 28 November 2019

Indicator Week ended Unit Latest price Price week prior Weekly change Price 12 months prior Year on year change Chart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate 27-Nov US$/A$ 0.68 0.68 0% 0.72 -6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf 26-Nov US$/t 220 217 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 228 -4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf 27-Nov US$/t 164 165 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 158 4%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg 26-Nov US$/t 423 423 0% 423 0% chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index 27-Nov USc/lb 75.6 74.9 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 86.2 -13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract 27-Nov USc/lb 12.7 12.8 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 12.4 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator 21-Nov Ac/kg clean 1,555 1,574 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 1,858 -16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator 22-Nov Ac/kg clean 1,655 1,677 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 2,009 -18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA 26-Nov A$/t 299 292 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 357 -16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW 27-Nov A$/t 380 380 0% - - chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW 27-Nov A$/t 357 360 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 435 -18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW 27-Nov A$/t 390 385 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 410 -5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator 21-Nov Ac/kg cwt 513 517 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 528 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic 22-Nov Ac/kg cwt 625 616 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 412 52%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator 21-Nov Ac/kg cwt 718 744 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 693 4%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers 15-Nov Ac/kg cwt 411 411 0% 296 39%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) 25-Nov Ac/kg cwt 824 852 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 548 50%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia 23-Nov Ac/kg lwt 315 315 0% 325 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East 25-Nov $/head 99 121 18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.     chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder 19-Nov US$/t 3,321 3,254 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 2,599 28%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder 19-Nov US$/t 3,017 2,924 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 1,965 54%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese 19-Nov US$/t 3,701 3,609 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 3,252 14%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat 19-Nov US$/t 5,108 5,191 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 4,577 12%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week


The Tableau dashboard may not meet accessibility requirements. For information about the contents of these dashboards contact ABARES.







 
 
Last reviewed: 5 December 2019
Thanks for your feedback.
Thanks! Your feedback has been submitted.

We aren't able to respond to your individual comments or questions.
To contact us directly phone us or submit an online inquiry

Please verify that you are not a robot.

Skip