Weekly update - 30 January 2020

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 29 January 2020 widespread rainfall was recorded across northern and eastern Australia. These falls are likely to benefit plant growth, build soil moisture levels and provide useful inflow to farm water storages across tropical northern Australia, much of Queensland and parts of north-eastern New South Wales.
  • The northern rainfall onset has occurred across parts of far northern and central Western Australia, the north of the Northern Territory and much of Queensland. The prolonged positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that persisted in 2019 and the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon have likely influenced the late onset of the Australian monsoon.
  • Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 25 and 50 millimetres are forecast for large areas of northern, central and eastern Australia. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres are forecast for parts of tropical northern Australia as a tropical low pressure system over north-eastern Australia moves west and joins with a mid-latitude trough.
  • Following the recent significant rainfall across northern Australia, this forecast rainfall is expected to result in flooding across parts of northern Australia, particularly inland northern Queensland.
  • Across Australia’s summer cropping regions rainfall of between 25 and 50 millimetres is expected across much of Queensland and northern New South Wales, with lighter falls of between 10 and 15 millimetres expected across parts of south-western New South Wales and northern Queensland.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 22 January 2020 and 29 January 2020 by 4 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 7,963 GL which represents 31 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $790 per ML on 23 January 2020 to $725 per ML on 30 January 2020.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 29 January 2020 widespread rainfall was recorded across northern and eastern Australia. These falls are likely to benefit plant growth, build soil moisture levels and provide useful inflow to farm water storages across tropical northern Australia, much of Queensland and parts of north-eastern New South Wales.

In Australia’s summer cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 25 and 50 millimetres were recorded across north-eastern New South Wales and much of Queensland. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across summer cropping regions in parts of northern Queensland during the week ending 29 January 2020.

Rainfall for the week ending 29 January 2020

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/1/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 28 January  2020, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across parts of eastern and central Australia. In contrast, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C below average across parts of north-eastern Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 28 January 2020

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/01/2020

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 28 January 2020

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/01/2020

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Northern Rainfall Onset

The northern rainfall onset occurs when the total rainfall after 1 September reaches 50 millimetres. This is considered approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth. From 1 September 2019 to 28 January 2020 the northern rainfall onset has occurred across parts of far northern and central Western Australia, the north of the Northern Territory and much of Queensland. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres have been recorded across large areas of northern and north-eastern Australia.

In most areas where the northern rainfall onset has occurred, it has arrived later than the long-term average onset date. The prolonged positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that persisted in 2019 and the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon have likely influenced the late onset of the Australian monsoon. 

Northern rainfall totals for the period 1 September 2019 to 28 January 2020

Number of days earlier or later than the long-term average onset date

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 25 and 50 millimetres are forecast for large areas of northern, central and eastern Australia. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres are forecast for parts of tropical northern Australia as a tropical low pressure system over north-eastern Australia moves west and joins with a mid-latitude trough. Following the recent significant rainfall across northern Australia, this forecast rainfall is expected to result in flooding across parts of northern Australia, particularly inland northern Queensland.

In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 25 and 50 millimetres is expected across much of Queensland and northern New South Wales. Lighter falls of between 10 and 15 millimetres are expected across the remaining summer cropping regions in northern Queensland and south-western New South Wales during the next 8 days.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 30 January to 6 February 2020

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/01/2020

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 30 January 2020

Indicator Week ended Unit Latest price Price week prior Weekly change Price 12 months prior Year on year change Chart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate 29-Jan US$/A$ 0.68 0.69 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 0.71 -4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf 28-Jan US$/t 236 237 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 243 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf 29-Jan US$/t 173 172 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 170 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg 26-Nov US$/t 423 423 0% 423 0% chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index 30-Jan USc/lb 79.2 79.4 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 83.2 -5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract 30-Jan USc/lb 14.5 14.4 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 12.6 15%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator 23-Jan Ac/kg clean 1,576 1,609 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 1,927 -18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator 18-Jan Ac/kg clean 1,685 1,687 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 2,105 -20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA 28-Jan A$/t 341 336 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 360 -5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW 07-Jan A$/t 442 447 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 455 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW 07-Jan A$/t 385 382 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 438 -12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW 14-Jan A$/t 467 477 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 432 8%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator 23-Jan Ac/kg cwt 548 516 6%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 475 15%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic 23-Jan Ac/kg cwt 622 593 5%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 362 72%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator 23-Jan Ac/kg cwt 779 738 6%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 677 15%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers 17-Jan Ac/kg cwt 430 430 0% 323 33%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) 27-Jan Ac/kg cwt 879 879 0% 588 49%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia 25-Jan Ac/kg lwt 335 330 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 325 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East 09-Dec $/head 105 140 -25%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 108 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder 21-Jan US$/t 3,233 3,150 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 2,777 16%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder 21-Jan US$/t 3,036 3,026 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 2,405 26%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese 21-Jan US$/t 4,048 4,015 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 3,504 16%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat 21-Jan US$/t 4,821 4,929 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 5,294 -9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week


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Last reviewed: 30 January 2020
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