Weekly update - 31 October 2019

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 30 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of northern, eastern and southern Australia.
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 to 25 millimetres were recorded across isolated areas of western Queensland, south-western Victoria and eastern Western Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions New South Wales, South Australia, and remaining cropping regions in Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia.
  • While the harvesting of winter crop is well underway in some winter cropping regions, rainfall during October would still benefit crops that are yet to ripen in southern growing regions.
  • Over the next eight days, rainfall is expected over parts of northern, south-eastern and far south-western Australia.
  • Across Australia’s cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates that falls of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected across northern and central New South Wales, much of Queensland and Victoria, and parts of Western Australia and eastern South Australia. Heavier falls of between 25 and 50 millimetres are forecast for cropping regions in southern New South Wales and eastern Victoria.
  • Given soil moisture profiles in most of the summer cropping regions of Australia remain at, or near, record low levels, it is unlikely that this forecast rainfall event would deliver sufficient rainfall to initiate sowing of dryland summer crops.
  • While the substantial rainfall forecast for southern New South Wales may benefit summer active pasture species and improve soil moisture, areas reliant on temperate winter active pastures are likely to see little improvement in pasture production. If these heavier falls eventuate, it may also disrupt crop and fodder harvest activities in southern and central New South Wales and northern Victoria.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 22 October and 30 October 2019 by 82 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 9,949 GL which represents 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 25 percentage points or 3,303 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $950 per ML on 23 October 2019 to $970 per ML on 31 October 2019.
  • Due to content management system updates, next week on 7 November 2019 the Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update will be released as a PDF via email to subscribers. Online publishing will resume on 14 November 2019.

Climate

[expand all]

Rainfall this week

During the week ending 30 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of northern, eastern and southern Australia.

Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 to 25 millimetres were recorded across isolated areas of western Queensland, south-western Victoria and eastern Western Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions New South Wales, South Australia, and remaining cropping regions in Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia.

While the harvesting of winter crop is well underway in some areas, rainfall during October would still benefit crops that are yet to ripen in southern growing regions. The planting of dryland summer crops in New South Wales and Queensland has been limited during September and early October due to persistent hot and dry conditions and subsequent low soil moisture.

Rainfall for the week ending 30 October 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/10/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 29 October  2019, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across southern Australia. Similarly, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across large areas of eastern and western Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 29 October 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/10/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 29 October 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/10/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperatures for Australia.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, rainfall is expected over parts of northern, south-eastern and far south-western Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for much of New South Wales, Victoria, southern Queensland, the far south-west of Western Australia, Tasmania and north of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals up to 100 millimetres are forecast for parts of eastern Victoria, western Tasmania and the far north of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 25 millimetres is expected across northern and central New South Wales, much of Queensland and Victoria, and parts of Western Australia and eastern South Australia. Heavier falls of between 25 and 50 millimetres are forecast for cropping regions in southern New South Wales and eastern Victoria. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions in western South Australia and Western Australia.

Given soil moisture profiles in most of the summer cropping regions of Australia remain at, or near, record low levels, most cropping regions will require widespread heavy rainfall of between 100 and 150 millimetres to replenish soil moisture levels to a point where producers would be confident to commence sowing. It is unlikely that this forecast rainfall event would deliver sufficient rainfall to initiate sowing. Traditionally, summer crops can be planted in either the early planting window that closes at the end of October or the late planting window, which runs from early December to early or mid-January, depending on the location.

While the substantial rainfall forecast for southern New South Wales may benefit summer active pasture species and improve soil moisture, areas reliant on temperate winter active pastures are likely to see little improvement in pasture production. If these heavier falls eventuate, it may also disrupt crop and fodder harvest activities in southern and central New South Wales and northern Victoria.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 31 October to 7 November 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 31/10/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 31 October 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate30-OctUS$/A$0.680.680%0.71-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf29-OctUS$/t214217-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.236-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf30-OctUS$/t1671670%1595%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg29-OctUS$/t422424<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.431-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index30-OctUSc/lb75.475.1<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.86.8-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract30-OctUSc/lb12.412.22%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.13.7-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator24-OctAc/kg clean1,5451,5172%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,874-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator25-OctAc/kg clean1,6721,6213%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,033-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA29-OctA$/t3003000%375-20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW30-OctA$/t380385-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.455-16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW30-OctA$/t360385-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.435-17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW30-OctA$/t3453450%410-16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator24-OctAc/kg cwt501503<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.541-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic25-OctAc/kg cwt611605<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.46731%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator24-OctAc/kg cwt772793-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.788-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers18-OctAc/kg cwt405404<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.27547%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)28-OctAc/kg cwt874870<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.53862%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia26-OctAc/kg lwt3153150%3005%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East21-Oct$/head86nana108-20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder15-OctUS$/t3,1333,141<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,72915%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder15-OctUS$/t2,7432,6743%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,97739%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese15-OctUS$/t3,6363,717-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,4047%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat15-OctUS$/t5,0654,9971%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5,106<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week


The Tableau dashboard may not meet accessibility requirements. For information about the contents of these dashboards contact ABARES.








Last reviewed: 4 November 2019
Thanks for your feedback.
Thanks! Your feedback has been submitted.

We aren't able to respond to your individual comments or questions.
To contact us directly phone us or submit an online inquiry

Please verify that you are not a robot.

Skip