National overview

Australian winter crop production is forecast to increase by 17% to 55.2 million tonnes in 2024–25 (Figure 1). This is 17% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 47 million tonnes and if realised, would be the fifth highest on record. While production is forecast to increase overall, varying seasonal conditions across Australia point to different state-level outlooks.

• Winter crop production is forecast to rise to near-record levels in New South Wales and Queensland. Winter crops have excellent yield potential heading into spring following a strong start to the winter cropping season and above average rainfall in most cropping regions.
• Improved seasonal conditions in Western Australia have boosted production prospects, with winter crop production now expected to be above average. Despite a dry start to the season, winter crops have developed well following timely winter rainfall, particularly across northern and western cropping regions.
• By contrast, production prospects are lower in South Australia and Victoria. Planting and establishment conditions were unfavourably dry across major cropping regions in South Australia and parts of Victoria. Dry conditions throughout the season have led to moisture stress with winter crop yields in these regions forecast to be below average.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 22 August 2024, there are roughly equal chances of higher or lower than average spring rainfall across most Australian cropping regions. There is a higher chance that spring rainfall will be average to above average in New South Wales and Queensland. Daytime temperatures during spring are expected to be above average across cropping regions in all states except Western Australia. Most areas with average or better levels of soil moisture are likely to receive enough rainfall to support winter crops through critical development stages. However, the increased chance of warmer spring conditions presents a potential downside risk for winter crops that are already experiencing moisture stress – particularly in cropping regions in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales where root zone soil moisture levels in August were below average.

National winter crop production has been revised up 7% compared to the June 2024 Australian crop report. This reflects improved production in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia which is expected to more than offset reduced production in South Australia and Victoria. The crop production forecast for all major winter crops represents an upwards revision from the June forecast.

• Wheat production is forecast to increase by 23% to 31.8 million tonnes in 2024–25, 20% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
• Barley production is forecast to increase by 13% to 12.2 million tonnes in 2024–25, 7% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
• Canola production is forecast to fall by 8% to 5.5 million tonnes in 2024–25, driven by a forecast year-on-year decrease in total area planted. Area planted, however, remains above the 10-year average resulting in expected canola production remaining 22% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
• Lentil production is forecast to increase by 7% to 1.7 million tonnes in 2024–25. This is more than double the 10-year average to 2023–24, with the expansion in area planted to lentils expected to more than offset lower yields.
• Chickpea production is forecast to increase by 171% to 1.3 million tonnes in 2024–25, 70% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. This reflects a significant expansion in area and high expected yields in New South Wales and Queensland, given high expected margins and favourable conditions. If realised, this will be the second highest chickpea harvest on record.

Area planted to winter crops in 2024–25 is forecast to increase by 5% to 24 million hectares. This is slightly below the record highs of 2020–21 and 2021–22 but sits 9% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. The increase is driven by a greater area planted to winter crops in New South Wales (up 17%) and Queensland (up 34%) owing to improved conditions in both states.

Figure 1 Australian winter crop production, 2024–25

Area planted to summer crops in 2024–25 is forecast to remain above average at 1.3 million hectares. This is supported by above average soil moisture levels in late winter and the favourable spring rainfall outlook across key summer cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland. Summer crop production is forecast to remain similar to 2023–24 levels at 4.7 million tonnes (Figure 2). This is 28% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 3.6 million tonnes.

Sorghum production is forecast to increase by 9% to 2.4 million tonnes in 2024–25. The increased chance of above average spring rainfall and above average soil moisture levels are expected to support the production potential of sorghum crops. Area planted to sorghum is forecast to increase by 5% to 622 thousand hectares, reflecting expected favourable conditions forecast during the planting window and higher expected margins relative to cotton.

Production of cotton lint is forecast to fall by 7% to 1 million tonnes in 2024–25, reflecting a reduction in planted area. Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 5% to 453 thousand hectares in 2024–25, as falling world cotton prices reduce expected returns relative to other crops such as sorghum, disincentivising cotton planting in dryland areas. Despite the reduction in area, high water availability and an above-average rainfall outlook across much of eastern Australia is expected to support yields, with the production forecast sitting 28% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Rice production is forecast to fall by 17% to 518 thousand tonnes in 2024–25. A forecast 14% decline in area planted in New South Wales motivated by lower global prices is expected to drive the decline in production. High water availability across the Murray-Darling basin and a favourable rainfall outlook through spring is expected to support average yields.

Figure 2 Australian summer crop production, 2024–25