National overview
Australian Crop Report: June edition
The opening to the winter cropping season in 2020–21 was generally very favourable, especially in the eastern states and South Australia. Total rainfall between February and April was above average in most cropping regions in eastern states and South Australia, and was average in Western Australia. The start of the winter cropping season was significantly better in New South Wales and southern Queensland than the last two years. Rainfall during May was average in most cropping regions and timely in others to facilitate crop planting and germinate early sown crops. However, some cropping regions in Queensland and Western Australia did not receive sufficient rainfall in May to fully realise planting intentions.
The three-month seasonal outlook (June to August) issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 4 June 2020 indicates winter rainfall is likely to be above average in most cropping regions in Queensland and New South Wales and around average in most other cropping regions. Day time temperatures are likely to be average in most cropping regions in Victoria and South Australia, and warmer than average in cropping regions in other states.
Area planted to winter crops in 2020–21 is forecast to increase by 23% to 22.5 million hectares, 5% above the 10-year average to 2019–20 of 21.4 million hectares. The majority of this increase is expected to be in New South Wales, where seasonal conditions so far are much more favourable than the last two winter crop seasons.
For the major winter crops, the area planted to wheat is forecast to increase by 27% to almost 13 million hectares, 8% above the 10-year average to 2019–20 of 12 million hectares. The area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 8% to just under 4.4 million hectares, also 8% above the 10-year average to 2019–20. Falls in barley prices in early May occurred in the midst of planting, and did not significantly change planting intentions in the eastern states with many producers maintaining planned crop rotations. The area planted to canola is forecast to increase by 32% to 2.4 million hectares, 6% below the 10-year average to 2019–20. Among other crops, area planted to chickpeas is expected to more than double to 531,000 hectares and area planted to oats is forecast to increase by 35% to 951,000 hectares.
Winter crop production is forecast to increase by 53% in 2020–21 to 44.5 million tonnes, which is 11% above the 10-year average to 2019–20. Yield prospects in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia are forecast to be above average given favourable levels of subsoil moisture at the beginning of June and the likelihood of above average rainfall in July. This forecast assumes average seasonal conditions in spring because Bureau of Meteorology outlook for spring is not yet available.
Wheat production is forecast to increase by 76% to 26.7 million tonnes, 13% above the 10-year average to 2019–20. Barley production is forecast to increase by 17% to 10.6 million tonnes, 16% above the 10-year average to 2019–20 of 9.1 million tonnes. Canola production is forecast to increase by 40% to 3.2 million tonnes, 1% below the 10-year average to 2019–20 of 3.3 million tonnes.
Amongst other crops, chickpeas production is forecast to increase by 135% to 661,000 tonnes and oats production is forecast to increase by 81% to 1.6 million tonnes.
| Year | Unit | New South Wales | Victoria | Queensland | South Australia | Western Australia | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–11 | '000 ha | 6,158 | 3,457 | 1,217 | 3,821 | 7,715 | 22,392 |
| 2011–12 | '000 ha | 5,969 | 3,411 | 1,205 | 3,838 | 8,252 | 22,693 |
| 2012–13 | '000 ha | 5,852 | 3,457 | 1,222 | 3,776 | 8,097 | 22,421 |
| 2013–14 | '000 ha | 5,314 | 3,283 | 1,105 | 3,448 | 8,249 | 21,419 |
| 2014–15 | '000 ha | 5,491 | 3,304 | 995 | 3,639 | 8,313 | 21,760 |
| 2015–16 | '000 ha | 5,375 | 2,915 | 1,049 | 3,152 | 7,771 | 20,283 |
| 2016–17 | '000 ha | 6,062 | 3,231 | 1,375 | 3,904 | 8,531 | 23,126 |
| 2017–18 | '000 ha | 5,489 | 3,509 | 1,302 | 3,645 | 7,898 | 21,861 |
| 2018–19 | '000 ha | 3,990 | 3,350 | 725 | 3,391 | 8,296 | 19,771 |
| 2019–20 s | '000 ha | 3,085 | 3,101 | 657 | 3,462 | 7,927 | 18,256 |
| 2020–21 f | '000 ha | 5,872 | 3,370 | 1,335 | 3,560 | 8,318 | 22,476 |
| % change 2019–20 to 2020–21 | 90.4 | 8.7 | 103.3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 23.1 |
f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimate.
Notes: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat. Due to a change in scope by the ABS of its agricultural data collections, crop production is shown for establishments with an estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) of $5,000 or more until 2014–15, and an EVAO of $40,000 or more from 2015–16. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed.
Sources: ABARES; ABS
| Year | Unit | New South Wales | Victoria | Queensland | South Australia | Western Australia | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–11 | kt | 14,784 | 7,625 | 1,821 | 9,316 | 8,044 | 41,672 |
| 2011–12 | kt | 11,952 | 7,352 | 2,329 | 7,371 | 16,600 | 45,673 |
| 2012–13 | kt | 11,123 | 6,886 | 2,156 | 6,470 | 11,244 | 37,936 |
| 2013–14 | kt | 9,773 | 6,774 | 1,516 | 7,221 | 16,511 | 41,881 |
| 2014–15 | kt | 10,445 | 5,117 | 1,464 | 7,439 | 14,662 | 39,198 |
| 2015–16 | kt | 11,624 | 3,568 | 2,104 | 6,104 | 14,206 | 37,687 |
| 2016–17 | kt | 15,510 | 9,511 | 3,159 | 10,656 | 17,737 | 56,675 |
| 2017–18 | kt | 7,743 | 7,612 | 1,438 | 7,022 | 14,510 | 38,396 |
| 2018–19 | kt | 3,243 | 4,603 | 686 | 5,487 | 17,633 | 31,737 |
| 2019–20 s | kt | 3,339 | 7,424 | 678 | 5,923 | 11,619 | 29,092 |
| 2020–21 f | kt | 12,059 | 7,443 | 2,031 | 7,601 | 15,290 | 44,520 |
| % change 2019–20 to 2020–21 | 261.1 | 0.3 | 199.8 | 28.3 | 31.6 | 53.0 |
f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.
NNotes: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat. Due to a change in scope by the ABS of its agricultural data collections, crop production is shown for establishments with an estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) of $5,000 or more until 2014–15, and an EVAO of $40,000 or more from 2015–16.
Sources: ABARES; ABS
Total summer crop production in 2019–20 is estimated to have fallen by 62% to 885,000 tonnes, driven by significant falls in grain sorghum and cotton production.
Production of grain sorghum is estimated to have fallen by 74% in 2019–20 to 298,000 tonnes, driven predominantly by minimal plantings in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Average yields are estimated to be 2.1 tonnes per hectare, which is 29% below the 10-year average to 2018–19.
Cotton production is estimated to have decreased by 72% in 2019–20 to 134,000 tonnes of lint and 189,000 tonnes of seed due to low supplies of irrigation water. Area planted to cotton is estimated to have declined by 83% to 60,000 hectares, the lowest since 1978–79 when it was 50,000 hectares.
Rice production is estimated to be around 57,000 tonnes, the lowest since 2007–08, because of low water allocations and high water prices.
| Year | New South Wales | Queensland | Australia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '000 ha | kt | '000 ha | kt | '000 ha | kt | |
| 2009–10 | 381 | 1,405 | 514 | 1,342 | 903 | 2,764 |
| 2010–11 | 713 | 2,514 | 790 | 1,901 | 1,514 | 4,446 |
| 2011–12 | 757 | 3,064 | 783 | 2,379 | 1,556 | 5,489 |
| 2012–13 | 711 | 3,205 | 686 | 2,250 | 1,411 | 5,506 |
| 2013–14 | 568 | 2,317 | 559 | 1,469 | 1,139 | 3,847 |
| 2014–15 | 435 | 2,044 | 696 | 2,134 | 1,149 | 4,263 |
| 2015–16 | 412 | 1,646 | 624 | 1,814 | 1,054 | 3,547 |
| 2016–17 | 662 | 2,289 | 566 | 1,278 | 1,247 | 3,668 |
| 2017–18 | 614 | 2,205 | 649 | 1,648 | 1,283 | 3,950 |
| 2018–19 | 468 | 915 | 603 | 1,307 | 1,094 | 2,338 |
| 2019–20 s | 100 | 349 | 239 | 461 | 356 | 885 |
| % change 2018–19 to 2019–20 | –78.6 | –61.9 | –60.4 | 64.8 | –67.5 | –62.1 |
s ABARES estimate.
Note: State production includes cottonseed, grain sorghum, corn (maize), mung beans, rice, peanuts, soybeans and sunflowers. Total for Australia also includes navy beans, and small areas and volumes of summer crops in other states. Due to a change in scope by the ABS of its agricultural data collections, crop production is shown for establishments with an estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) of $5,000 or more until 2014–15, and an EVAO of $40,000 or more from 2015–16. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed.
Sources: ABARES; ABS