Western Australia

Australian Crop Report: September edition

Winter crop production in Western Australia is forecast to rise by 24% to 18.4 million tonnes in 2024–25. Improved seasonal conditions have boosted production prospects, with winter crop production now expected to be 7% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 17.2 million tonnes. This represents a 16% upwards revision from the June 2024 Australian crop report and is the third highest production on record.

Following unfavourably dry conditions at the start of the winter cropping season, early June rainfall across northern and western cropping regions supported crop establishment and growth. Timely rainfall and warmer growing conditions in July and August accelerated crop development, which had been later than normal due to the dry start to the season. Improved seasonal conditions have reinforced yield potentials, mostly benefitting cereal crops. By contrast, planting and establishment conditions were largely unfavourable in some southern cropping regions of Western Australia, particularly in the Esperance zone and eastern cropping regions in the Albany zone. Drier conditions in these areas have led to crops experiencing moisture stress, limiting yield potential.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 22 August 2024, there are roughly equal chances of higher or lower than average spring rainfall in most cropping regions in Western Australia. Above average rainfall is more likely in September and daytime temperatures are expected to be average to below average in most cropping regions during September and October. The outlook for early spring rainfall and mild temperatures should support winter crops through critical development stages and provide favourable growing conditions to maintain above average yields across most cropping regions.

Winter crop yields are forecast to rise by 25% to 2.13 tonnes per hectare in 2024–25, 5% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. The average state wheat yield is forecast to increase by 32% to 2.19 tonnes per hectare in 2024–25. This is the largest year-on-year percentage increase in yield, reflecting improved conditions in northern cropping regions where a high proportion of wheat is grown. This compares to the average state canola yield which is forecast to increase by 7% to 1.48 tonnes per hectare in 2024–25. The dry start to the season has led to patchy emergence and growth in most canola crops. This has reduced overall yield potential given the majority of canola is grown in southern cropping regions where conditions have been less favourable.

Area planted to winter crops in Western Australia in 2024–25 is forecast to fall slightly to 8.6 million hectares, but remain 2% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. This largely reflects the drier- and hotter-than-average conditions during autumn with a reduction in area sown in lower-rainfall cropping regions, especially for higher production risk crops such as canola.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES