Seasonal conditions

The volume of global grain and oilseed production in 2024–25 is estimated to be 1% higher than 2023–24 levels. This largely reflects improved seasonal conditions boosting rice, coarse grain, wheat and oilseed production:

• Higher projected wheat production is expected for Canada, Argentina, Australia and the United States and should more than offset reduced expected production for the Russian Federation, the European Union, and Ukraine.
• Total global coarse grain production is projected to be higher compared to the previous season, despite an expected decline in corn production.
• Higher projected rice production in 2024–25 is driven by improved seasonal conditions in all major rice exporting nations.
• Global soybean production is expected to be higher driven by improved seasonal conditions in South America and the United States.

Australian crop production in 2024–25 is expected to be higher than that forecast in the June 2024 Agricultural Commodities Report, despite some variability across growing regions. Favourable climatic conditions during winter have boosted production outcomes in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. This increased production is expected to more than offset below average forecast production in South Australia and Victoria.

Wetter than normal conditions observed across most northern hemisphere grain and oilseed producing regions

Higher production is anticipated across most global grain and oilseed producing regions due to favourable climatic conditions, with average to above average rainfall from May to July 2024. However, much of Brazil and Argentina, and isolated areas in Canada, eastern Europe, northern United States, Ukraine and the west of the Russian Federation recorded below average rainfall (Figure 1.1). In Australia, average rainfall has delivered a favourable outlook for 2024–25 winter crop production, despite some soil moisture deficits in parts of South Australia and Victoria.

Figure 1.1 Seasonal precipitation anomaly for May to July 2024

Global crop production conditions generally favourable despite some variability

At the end of July 2024, crop production conditions remained generally favourable for rice and soybeans, but more varied for wheat and corn (Figure 1.2).

In the northern hemisphere, the winter wheat harvest is progressing under generally variable climatic conditions, with areas of concern in parts of eastern Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, following adverse weather conditions in recent months. Production conditions for rice are generally positive, despite delays in transplanting in India. Soybeans continue to develop under generally favourable production conditions, with the exception of parts of the Russian Federation and Ukraine with some production concerns due to hot and dry conditions.

In the southern hemisphere, wheat crops are developing under generally favourable conditions in Australia. In Argentina winter wheat conditions are generally favourable despites some dryness during June and July, due to high soil moisture levels leading into planting. Meanwhile the harvest of corn is progressing under mixed conditions across South America.

Figure 1.2 Global agricultural conditions status as at July 28, 2024

High probability of above average rainfall in Asia and Australasia

Between September and November 2024 (Figure 1.3), there is an elevated probability of above average rainfall in Central America and Caribbean regions, South Asia, the Maritime Continent regions, parts of China and much of Australia. The outlook indicates elevated probabilities of below average precipitation over much of South America, central and southern parts of the United States, Mexico and western Canada.

Figure 1.3 Global rainfall outlook for September to November 2024

High probability of above average temperature for most land areas

The global temperature outlook for September to November 2024 indicates above average temperatures for most crop and oilseed producing regions (Figure 1.4). The main exception to this outlook is central areas in the Russian Federation and parts of northern India where below average to average temperatures are more likely. In areas where above average rainfall is anticipated, such as Australia and Asia (Figure 1.3), the warmer than average conditions may cause the crops to mature early. In contrast, excessive warmth may inhibit crop development in areas where below average rainfall is expected, such as in southern areas of the United States and in South America.

Figure 1.4 Global temperature outlook for September to November 2024

Winter rainfall is critical for crop growth and development. Cropping areas in northern and eastern Western Australia, northern and central New South Wales and northern Queensland have received average to above average rainfall in June and July, with average to below average rainfall elsewhere (Figure 1.5). However, cropping regions with below average to average rainfall recorded rainfall totals of between 25 and 100 millimetres during this period, which are likely to have supported the growth and the establishment of winter crops. Final production outcomes in these growing regions will be highly dependent on climatic conditions recorded during the remainder of the growing season.

Figure 1.5 June to July 2024 rainfall deciles

Sufficient rainfall in most western and eastern cropping regions in August 2024

Access to sufficient levels of plant available water is widely assumed to be the factor most limiting the growth rates of crops and pastures in rainfed environments. Analysis of accumulated rainfall totals between 1 August and 26 August 2024, would indicate that sufficient levels of plant available water have been realised across large areas of western and eastern Australia (Figure 1.6).

Accumulated August-to-date rainfall totals have been above the August median (1981 to 2018) across most cropping regions in northern and central New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. This is expected to have boosted soil moisture profiles in these areas and support above average pasture and crop yield potentials. In contrast, in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales cropping areas, where it has been dry in the preceding months, the rainfall totals in August 2024 has been mainly up to 15 millimetres, with southern margins receiving up to 25 millimetres. These accumulated August-to-date rainfall totals are around half of the August median (1981 to 2018) in these areas. Given the generally dry conditions observed throughout the growing season so far, these areas in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales will require timely rainfall in the spring to avoid further reduction in crop and pasture yields as the season progresses.

Figure 1.6 Rainfall totals from 1 August to 26 August 2024

Average to above average levels of root zone soil moisture across Australia

Root zone soil moisture plays a pivotal role in sustaining the growth of winter crops and pasture during their critical development stages during spring. Crop development and pasture growth in areas of above average soil moisture are typically less reliant on timely and frequent in-season rainfall events than in areas with below average levels of soil moisture. For much of Australia, the root zone soil moisture as at 20 August 2024 was average to very much above average (Figure 1.7). In contrast, areas of extremely low soil moisture levels were evident across parts of south-eastern and scattered areas central Australia.

Across cropping regions, root zone soil moisture levels are generally average to above average in Western Australia, Queensland, and central to northern New South Wales. However, regions experiencing extremely low to below average soil moisture—such as South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales—will need adequate and timely rainfall throughout the remainder of winter and spring to sustain current forecast levels of crop production.

Figure 1.7 Root Zone soil moisture as at 20 August 2024

Above average pasture production in central and parts of eastern Australia

During the northern Australia dry season (May to September), pasture growth typically declines significantly due to the reduction in water availability, with livestock relying on pasture grown throughout the previous wet season.

For southeast Australia, during winter, pasture growth typically increases reflecting higher rainfall totals, and reduced temperatures and evapotranspiration rates at this time of year. Pasture availability during this period influences the growth, branding and marking rates of lambs and calves, livestock turnoff and the production of meat, milk, and wool.

For the 3 months to July 2024, average to extremely high pasture production (relative to the 1957 to 2016 average) was recorded across large parts of eastern and central Australia, extending into central Western Australia (Figure 1.8). Despite being firmly within the typical dry season, northern Australia also recorded generally average to above average pasture growth for this time of the year. Average to extremely high pasture production across many grazing regions will likely enable farmers to continue to maintain current stock numbers and provide opportunities to build standing dry matter availability.

In contrast, below average to extremely low pasture growth rates were recorded across parts of southern South Australia, southern Western Australia, western Victoria and central Queensland. In Tasmania, pasture growth was seasonally low, typical for this time of year. Graziers in regions where below average pasture growth was recorded will be more reliant on supplemental feed to maintain current stocking rates and production.

Figure 1.8 Relative pasture growth for 3-months ending July 2024 (1 May to 31 July 2024)

Irrigated crops

Reservoir storage levels have declined slightly in the Murray-Darling Basin. On 22 August 2024, the accessible capacity of water held in Murray–Darling Basin storages were around 24,937 GL, or around 82% of total capacity. This is a 10% decline in the stored water volume since last year but remains historically high. The traded volume of water for the 2024–25 season is around 1,759 GL to date. The median price for water allocation to date for the 2024–25 is $110/ML, compared to $58/ML in 2023–24, but below the 5-year average median price of $161ML.

High water storage volumes, high irrigation allocations, substantial levels of carryover water, historically low allocation prices and improved planting conditions likely to drive strong irrigated crops and horticulture production in 2024–25. Despite a decline in water storage volumes compared to this time last season, irrigation allocations and carryover water levels are expected to remain high for irrigated crops in 2024–25.

Average conditions forecast for spring 2024 in the east while drier than average conditions expected in the west

Rainfall during spring is crucial for the grain-filling and yield-determining stage of winter crops. The rainfall outlook for September to November 2024 indicates that above median rainfall is more likely across eastern and southern areas of the country. In contrast, much of Western Australia, and western areas in the Northern Territory and South Australia are expected to receive below median rainfall, with the probability below 40% of exceeding median rain in these areas. Remaining areas have equal chance of receiving above or below median rainfall (Figure 1.9).

Across cropping regions, the probability of receiving median rainfall is between 45% and 70% in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia. There is an equal chance of either above or below median rainfall in eastern South Australia and Victorian cropping regions. If realised, this rainfall would support ABARES forecasts of above average winter crop yields in New South Wales, Western Australia and Queensland, and help support current yield expectations in Victoria and South Australia.

Figure 1.9 Chance of exceeding the median rainfall in September to November 2024

The outlook for September through to November 2024 suggested that there is a 75% chance of recording rainfall totals of between 25 and 200 millimetres across eastern, southern and northern parts of the country. Heavier falls of up to 400 millimetres are likely for the alpine regions of Victoria and New South Wales, while parts of western Tasmania may receive falls in excess of 600 millimetres (Figure 1.10). Much of the remainder of the country is expected to receive little to no rainfall, typical of this time of the year.

In cropping regions, there is at least a 75% chance of receiving between 50 and 200 millimetres of rainfall across much of Queensland and New South Wales, and between 25 and 100 millimetres in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.

These expected rainfall totals are likely to be sufficient to support the flowering and grain filling stages of winter crop development, boost soil moisture profiles, assist in maintaining current winter crop yield expectations in most regions and provide a favourable start to the summer cropping season. However, a potential downside production risk exists in parts of South Australia and Victoria, exhibiting low soil moisture levels leading into spring.

There is also at least an 80% chance of maximum and minimum temperatures exceeding the respective medians during spring. Warmer than normal temperatures can help speed up plant growth and benefit the yield prospects of late planted and dry sown winter crops provided there is sufficient underlying sub-soil moisture to support this growth.

Figure 1.10 Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring in September to November 2024

Later than usual rainfall onset likely in the west and central regions, earlier in parts of the east

The northern rainfall onset outlook provides an indication of whether the first significant rains after the dry season are likely to be earlier or later than normal. The onset occurs when the total rainfall after 1 September reaches 50 millimetres, which is considered approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth. The northern rainfall onset for the 2024–25 season is likely to be later than usual for most of the western and central parts of northern Australia, but earlier for parts of the east (Figure 1.11). Much of Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and western Queensland have a 60–70% chance of a later than usual northern rainfall onset. The Pilbara coast in Western Australia, and parts of eastern Queensland have a 60–70% chance of an earlier than usual northern rainfall onset. Elsewhere, the northern rainfall onset is likely to be closer to the normal onset date.

Figure 1.11 Chance of early Northern Rainfall Onset