Water market outlook: June quarter 2020
Tim Westwood and Mihir Gupta
This water market outlook provides ABARES latest view on water market allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin for 2020–21. It is based on the March Water Market Outlook, using revised allocation announcements and seasonal conditions. Four representative scenarios (wet, average, dry and extreme dry) are presented.The next water market update will be available in August 2020 which will include end of year water accounting and initial opening water allocation announcements from state water agencies for 2020–21.
Since March, forecasts of water allocations have increased under all scenarios for Victoria and NSW, but have been revised down in the dry and extreme dry scenarios for the SA Murray.
Prices in 2020 have fallen dramatically since January 2020. The higher expected allocations for 2020–21 in NSW and Victoria has resulted in forecasts for prices in 2020–21 being revised down in the wet and average scenarios. Conversely prices in the dry and extreme dry scenarios have generally been revised upward primarily due to the downward revision to SA Murray allocations in those scenarios.
Note: 2019–20 year-to-date average calculated up to May 2020. Prices for the sMDB are weighted by volume of allocations. Sources: ABARES estimate; Waterflow
|Water market outlook – June 2020 PDF||2||1 MB|
|Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2020 - Commodities - data tables XLS||12||186 KB|
|Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2020 - Statistics - data tables XLS||32||592 KB|
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