Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 26 February 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 25 February 2026, low-pressure systems brought heavy rainfall to much of northern Australia
  • Much of northern and central Australia, including the northern tropics, western Queensland and the southern Northern Territory saw falls of 25-200 millimetres, with isolated areas of up to 300 millimetres. Severe weather and flood warnings remain in place throughout parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland, as well as South Australia and New South Wales.
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall was mixed. Much of Victoria, and parts of New South Wales, South Australia and northern Queensland saw falls of between 5-50 millimetres. Remaining areas were largely dry.
• Over the 8-days to 5 March 2026, rainfall is forecast for much of the north, centre and southeast of Australia.
  • Cropping regions in South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales are forecast to see 10-100 millimetres of rainfall over the period. These falls are likely to contribute to a build-up of soil moisture following are relative dry summer to date and benefit the growth of summer active pastures.
• The national rainfall outlook for March to May 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across much of southern Australia. However, there is an increased probability of above median rainfall in parts of the northern Australia.
  • The increased chance of above average forecast rainfall in parts of northern Australia is likely to present a further risk of flooding following a very active higher risk weather season to date. While this renewed flooding is likely to lead to some short-term hardship for some producers, these falls are likely to provide significant longer-term benefits to pasture production.
  • In contrast, these expected below average falls for much of southern Australia represents an increased downside production risk for the upcoming 2026–27 winter cropping season and autumn pasture growth.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 190 gigalitres (GL) between 19 February 2026 and 26 February 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 10,694 GL, equivalent to 48% of total storage capacity. This is 20% or 2,690 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $541/ML on 19 February 2026 to $454/ML on 26 February 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.