Report: Supply side constraints to land-based sequestration
Land-based sequestration could play a major role in the transition to net zero. Yet concerns have been raised about the availability and affordability of key inputs at scale. In this report we find that barriers to scaling land-based sequestration are unlikely to be significant, particularly in the medium to long term.
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Overview
This report examines the potential for labour and seed supply to constrain reforestation efforts under the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) scheme. Using simple ecological and economic models, we assess how increased demand for reforestation inputs affects wages and seed prices under alternative planting scenarios.
Key findings
- Barriers to scaling land-based sequestration are unlikely to be significant, particularly in the medium to long term.
- Increases in demand for labour and seed are unlikely to have a significant impact on wages or seed prices at the national level, particularly in the medium to long term (from around 5–10 years onwards).
- While wage increases are expected to be moderate at the national level, there may be some regions that experience substantial increases in labour demand relative to the size of the current workforce. In these regions wages may need to increase by more than at the national level, particularly in the short-term, to attract sufficient labour.
- Native seed availability may be limited in the short-term (less than 5 years) resulting in higher seed prices. However, seed prices are likely to ease as permanent plantings begin to contribute to seed supply.