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Department of Agriculture

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  1. DAFF Home
  2. ABARES
  3. Research topics
  4. Climate and drought

Secondary ABARES

  • Research topics
    • About my region: regional profiles
    • Agricultural outlook
      • Agricultural Commodities Report March 2025
      • Australian crop report
        • Australian Crop Report March 2025
      • Commodities and trade data
      • Historical agricultural forecast database
      • Definitions
      • Previous reports
    • Biosecurity
      • Biosecurity economics
        • Cost of established pest animals and weeds to Australian agricultural producers
        • Potential economic consequences of African swine fever in Australia
        • A benefit-cost framework for responding to Varroa
        • Benefits of increased access to minor use chemicals
        • Biosecurity control strategies for red imported fire ants
        • Biosecurity response options for black-striped mussel
        • Consequences of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak
        • Consequences of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak - 2022 update
        • Economic consequences of a scrapie outbreak in Australia
        • Economic impacts of Xylella fastidiosa on the Australian wine grape and wine-making industries
        • Estimating the value of Australian biosecurity arrangements for equine influenza since the 2007 outbreak
        • Farm gate value of biosecurity
        • Potential impact of the wheat steam rust strain Ug99 in Australia
        • The impacts of Xylella fastidiosa on Australian horticulture and the environment
      • Biosecurity sciences
        • Potential distribution of the invasive marine species Magallana ariakensis (Suminoe river oyster) in Australia
        • Potential distribution of the invasive marine species Didemnum vexillum (carpet sea squirt) in Australia
        • Potential distribution of the invasive marine species Potamocorbula amurensis (Amur River clam) in Australia
      • Biosecurity engagement
    • Climate and drought
      • Agricultural Data Integration Project
      • Farm performance and climate
      • Measuring drought risk
    • Fisheries
      • Fishery status reports
      • Fisheries and aquaculture statistics 2022
        • Australian fisheries and aquaculture production
        • Australia’s trade in fisheries and aquaculture products
          • Market access improvements: A case study of stone fruit exports to China
        • Seafood consumption in Australia
        • Employment in Australian fisheries and aquaculture
        • About this report
        • Other useful information
        • Economic concepts in Australian fisheries and aquaculture statistics
      • Fisheries data
      • Fisheries economics
        • Australian fisheries and aquaculture outlook
        • Australian fisheries economic indicators
      • Fisheries research
        • Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy and Commonwealth Fisheries Bycatch Policy Implementation Review
        • Shark Assessment Report 2022
        • Analyses to support the review of the Southern Squid Jig Fishery harvest strategy
    • Food demand in Australia
      • Trends and issues 2018
      • Trends and food security issues 2017
    • Forests
      • Forest economics
        • Australian forest and wood products statistics
        • Forest economic research
          • Australian wood volumes analysis
          • A framework for developing medium term projections of traded wood products
          • Economic potential for new plantation establishment in Australia
          • Future opportunities for using forest and sawmill residues in Australia
          • Illegal logging regulation: analysis of regulated importers by business size
          • Productivity and efficiency of the Australian sawmilling industry
          • Responsiveness of demand for structural pine to changes in timber and steel prices
          • Short-term forecasts of selected wood product sales volume: Method and assumptions
          • Upscaling the Australian softwood sawmill industry
        • Australian plantation statistics update
        • Plantation and log supply
        • National wood processing survey
      • Forest sciences
      • Forest data
      • Forests overview
    • Invasive species
      • National Feral Pig Current Distribution in Australia
      • Distribution and impacts of established pest animals and weeds
      • Exotic invasive species with environmental impacts
      • Prioritising targets for biological control of weeds
      • The National Priority List of Exotic Environmental Pests, Weeds and Diseases dataset
      • The state of weeds data collection in Australia
      • Wild dog research
    • Agricultural workforce
      • At a glance
      • Labour use surveys
      • Agricultural workforce data
      • Research
    • Land Use
      • Land use of Australia 2010–11 to 2020–21
      • Catchment scale land use of Australia and commodities - Update December 2023
      • Catchment scale land use profiles
    • Farm productivity
      • ABARES Farmland Price Indicator
      • R&D Investment
      • Agricultural productivity estimates
      • Productivity drivers
      • Productivity introduction
      • Productivity publications
    • Social sciences
      • Australian marine pest network analysis
      • Biosecurity research
      • Climate research
      • Community engagement
      • Community involvement in plant biosecurity
      • Human dimensions research
      • Making general surveillance work
        • General surveillance case study overviews
        • Guidelines for general surveillance programs
        • Literature review: Understanding general surveillance as a system
        • Research report: Making general surveillance programs work
        • Stocktake of general surveillance initiatives
      • Natural resource management
      • Pest animals and weed management survey
      • Recreational boat operators’ self-management of biofouling in Australia
      • Social aspects of weed management
      • Social impact assessment
      • General surveillance program design, monitoring and evaluation guide
    • Farm performance
      • Dairy farm performance
      • Farm survey data
      • Disaggregating farm performance statistics by size
      • Previous research
    • Trade
      • Climate, sustainability & agricultural trade
      • Trade facilitation, barriers and NTMs
      • Future value chain opportunities
        • Foreign Direct Investment in Australian Agriculture
      • Dashboard (beta)
    • Water
      • Community vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the Murray Darling Basin
      • The impacts of further water recovery in the southern Murray–Darling Basin
      • 2024: Environmental water trade – Making every drop count.
    • Agricultural forecasting
      • Changes to reporting of marketing year data
      • Farm share and price spread
      • Farmers' terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid
      • Forecasting national grain stocks in times of drought
      • Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts
      • Summary of ABARES agricultural forecasting
      • The future of public sector forecasting in Australian agriculture
    • Working papers
      • Technical improvements to GTEM: Sticky livestock capital and resources costs for land sequestration and abatement technologies
      • A micro-simulation model of irrigation farms in the southern Murray-Darling Basin
      • A model of spatial and inter-temporal water trade in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Climate and drought

Australia's climate is highly variable, with lower average rainfall and higher rainfall variability than most other nations. As a result, Australian agriculture is subject to more climate related risk than almost any other country in the world.

While Australian farmers are accustomed to climate variability, the emergence of climate change is presenting new challenges. Climate models predict changes in future rainfall patterns and more severe droughts and floods. Over the last 20 years large changes in Australian climate have already been observed including reductions in average winter rainfall in southern Australia and general increases in temperature.

ABARES climate and drought research considers the implications of climate variability and climate change for Australian agricultural industries. Key research topics include:

  • Measuring emerging and projected climate change impacts on Australian farms and ongoing industry adaptation responses
  • Analysis of drought and climate change policy issues as they relate to the agricultural sector
  • Measurement and forecasting of drought impacts in agriculture, including the Drought Early Warning System project
  • Monitoring industry and community drought vulnerability and resilience
  • Development and maintenance of ABARES farmpredict model

 

  • Climate change
  • Drought
  • ABARES farmpredict

 

Key publications

  • Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms
  • Opportunities from action on climate change: Insights
  • Analysis of the effects of drought and climate variability on Australian farms
  • The Drought Early Warning System Project
  • ABARES weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update
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Page last updated: 09 November 2022

We acknowledge the continuous connection of First Nations Traditional Owners and Custodians to the lands, seas and waters of Australia. We recognise their care for and cultivation of Country. We pay respect to Elders past and present, and recognise their knowledge and contribution to the productivity, innovation and sustainability of Australia’s agriculture, fisheries and forestry industries.

Artwork: Protecting our Country, Growing our Future
© Amy Allerton, contemporary Aboriginal Artist of the Gumbaynggirr, Bundjalung and Gamilaroi nations.

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