Skip to main content Skip to main navigation Skip to search
ABARES

Top navigation abares

  • Department
  • Ministers
  • Media Centre
Main menu

Main navigation ABARES

  • ABARES Home
    ABARES Home
  • About
    About
  • Research topics
    Research topics
  • Products
    Products
  • Data
    Data
  • News
    News
  • Conferences and events
    Conferences and events
  • Careers
    Careers
Department of Agriculture

Breadcrumb

  1. DAFF Home
  2. ABARES
  3. Research topics
  4. Climate and drought
  5. Drought
  6. ABARES farmpredict model

Secondary ABARES

  • Climate and drought
    • Agricultural Data Integration Project
    • Farm performance and climate
    • Measuring drought risk

ABARES farmpredict model

ABARES farmpredict is a microsimulation model of Australian farm businesses based on data from ABARES farm survey program. The farmpredict model can simulate physical and financial outcomes for Australian farm businesses given prevailing climate conditions and commodity prices. This model is actively used by ABARES for farm forecasting, drought monitoring and climate scenario modeling

ABARES farmpredict model

farmpredict applies machine learning methods to derive predictions—at an individual farm business level— of the production of outputs, the use of inputs and changes in farm stocks conditional on prices, fixed inputs, climate conditions and other farm characteristics. The model then applies accounting rules to derive estimates of revenues, costs, changes in stock holdings and profits in accordance with farm survey definitions.

Currently, the model provides coverage of the Australian broadacre farming sector as represented by the Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industry Survey (AAGIS). A detailed description of the methods and data sources underlying ABARES farmpredict is provided by Hughes, Soh, Lawson and Lu (2022).

ABARES farmpredict provides farm-scale results with national coverage of the Australian broadacre industry

Note: Map is derived from AAGIS farm survey data but does not show actual farm locations for confidentiality reasons

  • Climate scenarios: the model can be applied to assess the impacts of historical changes in climate or simulate the potential impacts of future climate scenarios

Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms

Modelling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian farms  

  • Forecasting and drought monitoring: the model is actively used by ABARES to forecast farm business outcomes. The model is also part of the ongoing Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators.

Farm survey results

Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI) project

  • Farm risk analysis: the model can be applied to simulate the sensitivity and exposure of farm profits to climate and drought risk

The effects of drought and climate variability on Australian farms

Measuring drought risk

Improving the performance of micro-simulation models with machine learning: The case of Australian farms

Hughes, N., Soh, W., Lawson, K. and Lu, M. (2022) Improving the performance of micro-simulation models with machine learning: The case of Australian farms, Economic Modelling

Hughes, N., M. Lu, W. Soh, K. Lawson (2022) Modelling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian farms, Climatic Change

Hughes, N., Soh, W., Boult, C., Lawson, K. (2022) Defining drought from the perspective of Australian farmers, Climate Risk Management

Chancellor, W., Hughes, N., Zhao, S., Soh, W., Valle, H., Boult., C. (2021) Controlling for the effects of climate on total factor productivity: A case study of Australian farms, Food policy

Thanks for your feedback.
Thanks! Your feedback has been submitted.

We aren't able to respond to your individual comments or questions.
To contact us directly phone us or submit an online inquiry

CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.

Please verify that you are not a robot.

Skip
Page last updated: 17 February 2025

We acknowledge the continuous connection of First Nations Traditional Owners and Custodians to the lands, seas and waters of Australia. We recognise their care for and cultivation of Country. We pay respect to Elders past and present, and recognise their knowledge and contribution to the productivity, innovation and sustainability of Australia’s agriculture, fisheries and forestry industries.

Artwork: Protecting our Country, Growing our Future
© Amy Allerton, contemporary Aboriginal Artist of the Gumbaynggirr, Bundjalung and Gamilaroi nations.

Footer

  • Contact us
  • Accessibility
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy
  • FOI

© Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

Facebook X LinkedIn Instagram