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This report provides documentation of AGTAM, the ABARES Global Trade and Agriculture Model.
ABARES Global Trade and Agriculture Model (AGTAM) v1.0 - Model Documentation
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Overview
Uncertainty, geopolitics, risk, and trade disruption have increased demand for understanding first, second and further order (i.e. direct and indirect) impacts of trade policy changes and supply shocks. With 70% of Australian agriculture exported, understanding these global influences is essential to understanding outcomes for the sector. ABARES developed the ABARES Global Trade and Agriculture Model (AGTAM) as these issues were coming to the fore. This paper documents the details of the model to inform public audiences and decision makers and provide transparency of the modelling techniques used by ABARES for relevant evidence-based analysis.
AGTAM is a global, whole-of-economy model, with results reflecting direct and indirect effects. Key features of the model include an agriculture and food focus (with an enhanced disaggregation for cattle, sheep, beef and sheep meat), global bilateral trade flows at a commodity level, global investment flows, multiple time-periods (‘recursive dynamic’, with an option of variable time steps), options for sticky wage adjustment and unemployment, as well as for idle (i.e. unused) capital stock. AGTAM also hosts a suite of technical characteristics that provide it with quick turnaround time for running a large number of simulations needed in developing probability distributions of results, thereby allowing analysis of changes in risk-based outcomes.