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Department of Climate Change, Energy, Enviroment and Water

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  5. Stocktake of Megatrends shaping Australian agriculture (2021 update)
  6. Positioning for the future: Will the lucky country surf or sink?

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  • Insights
    • Analysis of Australian agricultural trade and the COVID-19 pandemic
    • Analysis of Australia’s food security and the COVID-19 pandemic
    • Australia’s future agricultural trade advantage
    • Analysis of opportunities in India
    • Analysis of 2018 drought
    • Australia’s place in global agriculture and food value chains
    • Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms
    • Effects of bushfires and COVID-19 on the forestry and wood processing sectors
    • Economic effects of water recovery in the Murray–Darling Basin
    • Food security - The impact of export restrictions
    • Global responses to climate change
    • Indonesia’s food consumption and trade: will domestic reform keep up with demand?
    • Snapshot of Australian Agriculture 2021
    • Snapshot of Australia’s Agricultural Workforce
    • Snapshot of Australia’s commercial fisheries and aquaculture
    • Snapshot of Australia’s forest industry
    • Snapshot of Australian water markets
    • Stocktake of Fire in Australia’s forests, 2011 to 2016
    • Stocktake of Free trade, competitiveness and a global world: How trade agreements are shaping agriculture
    • Stocktake of Megatrends shaping Australian agriculture (2021 update)
    • The effects of drought and climate variability on Australian farms
    • The future of Chinese agricultural policy
    • United States and Australian agriculture—a comparison
    • Value creation in Australia through agricultural exports

Positioning for the future: Will the lucky country surf or sink?

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Source: Shutterstock.com

Australia is indeed lucky: a ‘lifestyle superpower’ with competitive industries, vibrant communities, and unique landscapes and environmental assets. But unearned advantage risks complacency, and each generation needs to create the luck – and advantages – it will pass on to the next generation. Will Australia choose to surf or sink?

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Position and momentum are crucial to surfing waves of change

Australia responded to the warning signs and poor economic performance of the 1960s and ’70s by implementing a range of market-based reforms, updating previous policies to deal with new realities. These changes, while challenging for many, have contributed to more resilient and profitable agricultural enterprises and industries (Grey et al. 2014, Greenville 2020). Maintaining and improving competitiveness involves tough choices, but the alternative is worse.

Australian agriculture and regional communities are well positioned to build on their strengths.

Our agricultural producers are export oriented and internationally competitive, managing high levels of price and climate variability with very low levels of government assistance. Policy settings provide valuable support for households and communities in need, when required, while avoiding assistance to businesses, which can undermine efficiency and adaptation.

Business, government, and communities all have crucial roles

While business is the primary engine of improved productivity, policy has an important enabling role in supporting innovation and change – rather than protecting the past.

Policy settings can never be ‘set and forget’, and require constant attention to ensure they provide the best possible support for agricultural industries and rural communities. It is crucial to ensure industry is getting the best possible outcomes from investments in research and development, including through reducing fragmentation and enabling investment in prospective cross-cutting technologies. Australian citizens have high expectations of government, and a healthy regard for responsible budget management. Federal and state governments have excellent credit ratings and are well positioned to finance infrastructure investments where they are in the national interest. Australia can afford better public services, or lower taxes, but achieving both at the same time may be difficult.

Determining the best way forward takes effort. It is important to encourage open minded discussion and constructive debate of options and opportunities for reform, drawing on relevant evidence and expertise.

Prediction is difficult, especially the future

The future is uncertain. But we know we cannot take prosperity for granted.

Australian industry, government, and communities need to work together to understand the risks and opportunities they face, and together create the future they want. We hope this summary of megatrends shaping Australian agriculture and regional communities supports this process.

Source: Shutterstock.com

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Last updated: 23 February 2021

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