Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 15 May 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 14 May 2025 tropical lows and troughs brought rainfall to parts of eastern and northern Australia.
  • Rainfall totals were low in all cropping regions, with 0-5 millimetres recorded in most areas.
• Over the coming eight days, rainfall is expected across limited parts of eastern Australia.
  • Little to no rainfall is expected across most cropping regions in the south and west. Eastern regions, including much of Queensland and New South Wales, are forecast to receive 5-50 millimetres.
  • The lack of autumn rainfall continues to present a risk to the timely germination and establishment of winter crops – particularly in those areas of southern New South Wales, western Victoria and South Australia where there is low stored soil moisture.
• Rainfall in April 2025 was variable across the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions, leading to differing crop production outcomes.
  • Global production conditions were generally favourable for rice, soybeans and maize, but variable for wheat.
  • Global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2024-25 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the March 2025 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production are likely to increase beyond the numbers in the March forecast, due to improvements in global wheat, maize and rice production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 08 May 2025 and 15 May 2025 by 98 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 11,904 GL, equivalent to 53% of total storage capacity. This is 28 percent or 4,737 GL less than at the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $343 on 08 May to $316 on 15 May. Trade between Murrumbidgee and Murray IVTs are open.