Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 10 July 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 9 July 2025, frontal systems brought rainfall totals of up to 100 millimetres to parts of southern Australia. High-pressure systems kept much of the remainder of Australia largely dry.
• Rainfall was highly variable across cropping regions in the week ending 9 July 2025
  • Rainfall totals of between 5-50 millimetres occurred across Western Australia, southern Victoria and across western and central regions of South Australia. Remaining areas recorded little to no rainfall, with falls ranging between 0-5 millimetres.
  • The ongoing lack of rainfall across the Mallee regions of South Australia and Victoria continues to present an increasing downside production risk for winter crops. These areas have likely received sufficient rainfall to germinate dry sown crops but little follow-up rainfall during late June and early July to support their establishment and growth.
• Over the coming eight days, rainfall is expected across much of southern Australia, while the northern two thirds of Australia are likely to stay dry.
  • Cropping regions in Victoria, South Australia, and southern central New South Wales are expected to record between 5-50 millimetres of rainfall, with falls of between 5-25 millimetres expected in Western Australia. If realised, this should provide timely moisture to support the establishment and growth of winter crops across most southern cropping regions.
• The national rainfall outlook for August to October 2025 indicates an increased probability of above median rainfall across much of central and eastern Australia. Western regions are likely to see close to average rainfall.
  • If realised, the expectation of above average August to October 2025 rainfall across most winter cropping regions is likely be sufficient to support the growth and development of winter crops.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 137 gigalitres (GL) between 3 July 2025 and 10 July 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 13,284 GL, equivalent to 60% of total storage capacity. This is 24% or 4,090 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $300/ML on 3 July 2025 to $318/ML on 10 July 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open. The water allocation prices shown are volume weighted average prices based on the last 10 trades. Price data is sourced from Waterflow.