Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 11 September 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 10 September 2025, cold fronts and a northwest cloudband brought rainfall to parts of central and southern Australia.
  • Rainfall was highly variable across winter cropping regions in the week ending 10 September 2025.
  • Rainfall totals of between 5-25 millimetres were observed across much of Victoria, with southern areas of New South Wales seeing 5-15 millimetres.
  • Higher falls of up to 50 millimetres were observed in parts of Western Australia, South Australia and northern New South Wales.
• Over the coming eight days to 18 September 2025, rainfall is expected across most cropping regions, with exceptions in northern Queensland.
  • Falls of between 10-50 millimetres are forecast across New South Wales, and Victoria, with falls of between 5-25 millimetres expected in Western Australia, South Australia and parts of southern Queensland. Remaining areas are expected to receive little to no rainfall.
  • If realised these falls are likely to be sufficient to support the crop and pasture growth and development and see some ongoing improvement to soil moisture reserves in most areas.
• The national rainfall outlook for October to December 2025 indicates an increased probability of above median rainfall across Australia. Part of northern Western Australia and western Tasmania are more likely to see below median rainfall, while remaining areas have an equal probability of above or below average rainfall
  • If realised, the expectation of average to above average October to December 2025 rainfall across much of Australia is likely be sufficient to support the development of winter crops, as well as supporting spring and early summer pasture growth and the timely planting and establishment of dryland summer crops in eastern Australia.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 190 gigalitres (GL) between 04 September 2025 and 11 September 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 15,329 GL, equivalent to 69% of total storage capacity. This is -16% or -2,949 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation rices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $262/ML on 04 September 2025 to $278/ML on 11 September 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.