Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 18 September 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 17 September 2025, cold fronts and low-pressure systems brought rainfall to parts of northern and southern Australia.
  • Rainfall was highly variable across winter cropping regions in the week ending 17 September 2025.
  • As forecast last week, rainfall totals of between 10-50 millimetres were observed across much of southern New South Wales. These falls are likely to be sufficient to arrest declines in soil moisture levels and winter crop yields, and provided a boost to pasture growth across most southern growing regions in New South Wales.
  • Lower rainfall totals of between 1-15 millimetres were recorded in most remaining cropping regions except for much of Queensland which received little to no rainfall.
• Over the coming eight days to 25 September 2025, rainfall is expected across most eastern cropping regions.
  • Falls of between 5-25 millimetres are forecast across New South Wales, Queensland and southern Victoria. If realised, these falls are likely to be sufficient to support the crop and pasture growth and development.
  • Meanwhile most cropping regions of Western Australia, South Australia, and northern Victoria are forecast to receive little to no rainfall. Crops and pastures in these regions are likely to draw on stored soil moisture reserves to support their growth.
• Globally, variable rainfall during August 2025 has led to mixed crop production prospects across the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions but on balance have led to generally positive crop production outcomes across both the northern and southern hemisphere.
• Global production conditions were generally favourable for rice and soybeans, but more varied for wheat and maize. Global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2025–26 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the September 2025 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to increase beyond the numbers in the September forecast, particularly due to improvements in global wheat production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 252 gigalitres (GL) between 11 September 2025 and 18 September 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 15,581 GL, equivalent to 70% of total storage capacity. This is -14% or -2,560 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $278/ML on 11 September 2025 to $294/ML on 18 September 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.