Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 25 June 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 24 June 2026, low-pressure systems and cold fronts brought rainfall to parts of southern, central and eastern Australia.
  • Cropping regions in South Australia saw falls of 15-50 millimetres of rainfall, while Victoria saw lower falls of 5-15 millimetres across most cropping regions. In central New South Wales 10-25 millimetres was recorded, while southern and northern regions of New South Wales, as well as Queensland and Western Australia saw little to no rainfall.
• Over the 8 days to 2 July 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall to large areas of eastern and south-western Australia.
  • Across cropping regions falls of 15-100 millimetres are forecast for Western Australia, Victoria, and southern Queensland, while New South Wales is expected to see higher falls of 50-100 millimetres. In South Australia, between 10-25 millimetres are forecast.
  • If realised, these expected falls are likely to provide an additional boost to soil moisture levels and continues to support the growth of winter crops.
• The national rainfall outlook for July to September 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across parts of southern, eastern and northern Australia.
  • The current rainfall outlook for July to September 2026 suggest below average falls across most cropping regions. However, favourable soil moisture levels across most of Australia’s southern growing regions means that if forecast July through September rainfall totals are realised, these falls are likely be sufficient to support the growth and current yield potentials of winter crops. However, these below average expected falls for north-eastern growing regions represents an ongoing downside production risk for the 2026–27 winter cropping season.
• According to the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators June 2026 estimates, broadacre farm profits for 2026–27 at a national level are forecast to be average (68th percentile) compared to the past 33 years. These projections are consistent with the broader farm profit forecasts for 2026–27 outlined in the June 2026 Agricultural Commodities report.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 265 gigalitres (GL) between 18 June 2026 and 25 June 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 11,020 GL, equivalent to 50% of total storage capacity. This is 15% or 2,007 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $384/ML on 18 June 2026 to $390/ML on 25 June 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is open. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.