Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 15 January 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 15 January 2026, rainfall was recorded across northern and eastern regions of Australia, while central and some southern areas remained comparably dry.
  • Ex-Tropical cyclone Koji brought widespread rainfall and thunderstorms across much of eastern Queensland, causing widespread flooding and led to damage to farm infrastructure and resulted in some crop and livestock losses. Continued rainfall across the Gulf region of north Queensland is likely to have exacerbated flooding impacts and delayed recovery efforts.
  • Across cropping regions rainfall in Queensland and northern New South Wales has likely provided some benefit to soil moisture levels and the growth of summer crop.
• Over the 8-days to 22 January 2026, rainfall is forecast for the north and east of the country.
  • Continued heavy falls are forecast across major flood warning areas of northern Queensland. If realised these falls are likely to further exacerbate flooding, continue to slow recovery efforts and may lead to increased livestock losses due to a lack of feed and exposure to disease and illness.
  • The expected heavier falls across northern New South Wales and Queensland are likely to further support soil moisture storage in summer cropping regions.
• Nationally, December rainfall was mixed, with average to well above average rainfall in the north and west, and below average rainfall in the south This average to well above average rainfall has benefited both upper- and lower-layer soil moister levels across parts of the country. However, low levels of lower layer soil moisture across some cropping regions particularly in southern regions presents an ongoing downside production for pasture growth.
• The national rainfall outlook for February to April 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across areas of north-western and parts of south-eastern Australia, while parts of southern Queensland are more likely to see above median rainfall.
  • If realised, close to average forecast rainfall for much of northern and eastern Australia is expected to support summer crop and pasture production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 254 gigalitres (GL) between 8 January 2026 and 14 January 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 12,742 GL, equivalent to 57% of total storage capacity. This is 17% or 2,545 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $379/ML on 11 December 2026 to $436/ML on 15 January 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.