Australian Crop Report June 2025

Above average national winter crop production

Australian winter crop production is forecast to decrease by 8% to 55.6 million tonnes in 2025–26 (Figure 1). This is 13% above the 10-year average to 2024–25 and if realised, would be the sixth highest on record. This forecast reflects expected improvements in production in South Australia and Victoria, despite ongoing dry conditions and a return to more normal conditions in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia after last year’s highs. The 2025–26 winter cropping season has been characterised by highly variable planting conditions across Australia’s major winter cropping regions:

• Extremely dry conditions have persisted across southern New South Wales, western Victoria, South Australia and northern cropping regions in Western Australia where soil moisture levels are extremely low. This means that much of the 2025–26 winter crop has been dry sown and will require adequate and timely rainfall during June to allow for crop germination and establishment. Dry autumn conditions are expected to have discouraged some growers from committing to their full planting intentions.
• By contrast, conditions have been very favourable in Queensland, northern New South Wales and southern Western Australia, reflecting above to very much above average early autumn rainfall that continued to improve soil moisture profiles. The conditions have provided an excellent start to the winter cropping season.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 22 May 2025, there is a 60% to 80% chance that winter rainfall will be above average across cropping regions in Queensland, New South Wales, northern Victoria and South Australia. Meanwhile, cropping regions in Western Australia have a lower chance of receiving above average rainfall (between 35% and 50%). This generally favourable rainfall outlook for June to August, if realised, is expected to support the germination of dry sown crops and may allow for follow up winter crop planting towards the end of the planting window.

Area planted to winter crops in Australia is forecast to decline marginally in 2025–26 to 24.9 million hectares, 10% above the 10-year average to 2024–25 and the second highest on record. A forecast increase in area planted to winter crops in Western Australia is likely to be more than offset by falls in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

Area planted to wheat is forecast to fall by 3% to 12.6 million hectares, while the area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 2% to 4.7 million hectares in 2025–26. The longer planting window for cereals is also expected to result in some late plantings following upcoming forecast rainfall events.

Area planted to canola is forecast to fall by 1% to 3.4 million hectares in 2025–26, with the reduction in area planted in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia due to dry conditions, almost offset by the increase in planted area in southern Western Australia.

Area planted to winter pulses is forecast to increase by 2% to 3.2 million hectares in 2025–26, driven by increases in chickpea, lentil and lupin plantings. Area planted to chickpeas is forecast to increase by a further 2% in 2025–26 to 1.1 million hectares. This is 63% above the 10-year average to 2024–25, reflecting high grower returns and a favourable start to the cropping season in Queensland and New South Wales. Area planted to lentils is forecast to increase further in 2025–26 to a record 1.1 million hectares, again reflecting high grower returns and the ability for lentil crops to perform better than some other crop types in dry conditions.

Despite a year-on-year fall, winter crop production in 2025–26 is expected to remain above average, with most regions showing an increased likelihood of receiving average to above average winter rainfall. However, with such a dry start in the southeast, and limited subsoil moisture, it will be crucial for forecast rainfall to be realised to meet current yield projections.

• Wheat production is forecast to fall by 10% to 30.6 million tonnes in 2025–26, 11% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
• Barley production is forecast to fall by 3% to 12.8 million tonnes in 2025–26, 9% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
• Canola production is forecast to fall by 6% to 5.7 million tonnes in 2025–26, 19% above the 10- year average to 2024–25.
• Lentil production is forecast to increase by 17% to 1.5 million tonnes in 2025–26, 71% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
• Chickpea production is forecast to fall by 17% to 1.9 million tonnes in 2025–26, with the expansion in area planted expected to be offset by lower yields. This level of production would be 96% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.

Figure 1 Australian winter crop production, 2025–26

Source: ABARES

Summer and early autumn rainfall boosts summer crop yields

Australian summer crop production is estimated to increase by 2% to 4.8 million tonnes in 2024–25 (Figure 2), 32% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Summer crop production was boosted by above average rainfall during late spring and summer in Queensland and northern New South Wales, resulting in above average yields. Harvesting of some summer crops has been delayed by storms and rain across key summer cropping regions, resulting in some isolated quality downgrades but has not significantly affected production volumes. National summer crop production has been revised up by 3% compared to the March 2025 Australian Crop Report.

Sorghum production is estimated to increase by 5% to 2.3 million tonnes in 2024–25, 37% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. This production estimate is unchanged from the March 2025 Australian Crop Report as a downward revision in area is offset by improved yields. The production of sorghum crops in Queensland and northern New South Wales benefited from above average rainfall, with yields estimated to be well above average, particularly in southern Queensland where they are estimated to reach a new record high.

Production of cotton lint is estimated to increase by 12% to 1.2 million tonnes in 2024–25, reflecting higher area planted and near-record yields. Area planted to cotton is estimated to have risen by 10% to 519 thousand hectares in 2024–25 to sit 30% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. The increase in planted area largely reflects increases in Queensland. High water availability and above average rainfall across much of eastern Australia have supported above average yields, with the production estimate sitting 54% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Rice production is estimated to fall by 23% to 477 thousand tonnes in 2024–25. Area planted to rice is estimated to have fallen by 24%, while yields are estimated to be 9% above the 10-year average, reflecting generally favourable growing conditions in southern New South Wales.

Figure 2 Australian summer crop production, 2024–25

Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Queensland is estimated to fall by 18% to 3.1 million tonnes in 2025–26. The overall fall in winter crop production reflects a year-on-year fall in area and lower expected yields for most winter crops. Despite the fall, this is 37% above the 10-year average to 2024–25 of 2.3 million tonnes, supported by high soil moisture levels at planting and a positive rainfall outlook during the growing season.

Area planted to winter crops in Queensland is forecast to fall by 4% to 1.5 million hectares in 2025–26 and remain 22% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Area planted to wheat and barley is expected to fall (by 6% and 14%) but remain above the 10-year averages to 2024–25. By contrast, area planted to chickpeas is expected to rise by 2% in 2025–26, supported by elevated chickpea prices.

Winter crop yields are forecast to fall by 14% to around 2.1 tonnes per hectare in 2025–26 but remain 19% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. The climate outlook (issued by Bureau of Meteorology on 22 May 2025) indicates a 50-60% chance of above median rainfall across Queensland. Average to above average soil moisture levels at planting, combined with a positive rainfall outlook for winter, are expected to support above average yield prospects.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024–25.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in Queensland is estimated to rise by 8% to 2.2 million tonnes in 2024–25. This is 29% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 and represents an 2% upward revision from the March 2025 Australian Crop Report. The upward revision reflects higher yields for most summer crops, supported by timely rainfall in late spring and summer. In particular, cotton yields are estimated to be the second highest on record, despite heavy rainfall causing some localised yield and quality downgrades.

Summer cropping area in Queensland is estimated to have remained largely unchanged at 631 thousand hectares in 2024–25, 2% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Area planted to cotton is estimated to have increased due to improved water availability and above average spring rainfall. In contrast, a fall in area available due to the large 2024–25 Queensland winter crop and lower than expected sorghum plantings in Central Queensland is estimated to have led to an 11% decline in the area planted to sorghum.

Sorghum production is estimated to increase slightly to 1.5 million tonnes in 2024–25. Sorghum yields are estimated to be higher than previously forecast and more than offset declines in area planted to sorghum. Higher yields reflect favourable conditions throughout the season for southern cropping regions, with record yields recorded across the Darling Downs. Below average rainfall in January 2025 discouraged increased planting of sorghum in Central Queensland, with areas becoming too wet to plant following high rainfall totals in February 2025.

Cotton lint production is estimated to rise by 40% to 410 thousand tonnes in 2024–25, driven by an increase in planted area and higher yields. Area planted to cotton is estimated to have risen by 33% to 162 thousand hectares in 2024–25, as favourable spring rainfall allowed for timely planting in dryland growing regions while improved water availability supported higher irrigated cotton planting. Yields are estimated to also rise in 2024–25 and remain above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in New South Wales is forecast to decrease by 23% to 15.8 million tonnes in 2025–26, but remain 23% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. An excellent start to the winter cropping season in northern New South Wales has enabled most growers to fully realise their planting intentions. Conditions in parts of central and most of southern New South Wales have not been as favourable, with below to very much below average autumn rainfall limiting soil moisture availability and impacting planting intentions. The winter rainfall outlook is positive which will be crucial for current production projections to be realised.

Area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 5% in 2025–26 to 6.8 million hectares, which is still 19% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. The area planted to wheat is forecast to be down 6% year-on-year but remain 14% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Barley area is forecast to be down only 2%. As the ideal planting window for canola closes without a significant rainfall event in southern cropping regions, growers are likely to switch into barley. Very dry conditions during autumn in southern cropping regions of New South Wales – where the majority of canola is grown – are expected to result in an 8% year-on-year fall in area planted to canola, with many growers opting to shift into less input intensive options.

Winter crop yields are currently forecast to average 2.3 tonnes per hectare in 2025–26, 10% above the 10-year average to 2024–25, mainly reflecting the excellent conditions in northern New South Wales, but also the forecast of improved climatic conditions in southern growing regions. The climate outlook, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 22 May 2025, indicates no strong tendency toward either above or below average rainfall for most cropping regions in New South Wales. Average to above average soil moisture levels across much of northern New South Wales at the end of autumn, combined with a positive rainfall outlook for winter, is expected to support increased yield prospects. However, yield prospects in southern cropping regions will be highly reliant on adequate and timely rainfall to realise current yield expectations.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024–25.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in New South Wales in 2024–25 is estimated to be down 2% at 2.5 million tonnes. This is 34% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 and represents a 4% upwards revision from the March 2025 Australian Crop Report, reflecting a revision to the average cotton yield.

Sorghum production is estimated to have increased by 13% to 800 thousand tonnes in 2024–25, 55% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Seasonal conditions were generally very favourable for sorghum production with yields estimated to be 42% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. However, storms and rain events during harvest have caused localised quality downgrades in some areas.

Cotton lint production is estimated to be relatively unchanged at 782 thousand tonnes in 2024–25, 51% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Area planted to cotton is estimated at 336 thousand hectares, largely unchanged but 30% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. Irrigated cotton production was supported by above average water availability across key growing regions while dryland cotton production was boosted by favourable soil moisture and timely rainfall during the planting and growing seasons.

Rice production is estimated to fall by 23% to 474 thousand tonnes in 2024–25, driven by a decrease in the area planted. Generally favourable growing conditions in southern New South Wales boosted average yields, which are estimated to be 8% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2023–24.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to reach 8.3 million tonnes in 2025–26, up 8% from 2024–25, and 4% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Prolonged dry conditions throughout cropping regions means that a high proportion of the 2025–26 crop has been sown dry. Parts of the eastern Mallee received some rainfall in late April which supported planting, however, there has been little to no follow up rain. Both topsoil and subsoil moisture largely remain limited, weighing on planting intentions. Adequate and timely winter rainfall will be crucial to support the germination and establishment of dry sown crops, particularly in the western part of the state.

Area planted to winter crops in Victoria is expected to decline by 30 thousand hectares in 2025–26 but remain 7% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Given the dry start to the season, area planted is expected to favour barley (up 4%) but weigh on wheat (down 2%) and canola (down 5%). Area planted to lentils is expected to increase to 530 thousand hectares, 95% above the 10-year average to 2024–25, as growers continue favouring pulses as part of the production mix due to strong export prices and yield benefits in drier conditions.

The three-month rainfall outlook (June to August), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 22 May 2025, indicates that rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for most cropping regions in Victoria, except for areas in the south where the outlook is slightly negative. With the dry start to the season, winter rainfall will be crucial for crop emergence and establishment.

Winter crop yields are forecast to rise by 9% in 2025–26 but remain 5% below the 10-year average to 2024–25. Despite limited soil moisture, the expectation of close to average winter rainfall supports higher yield expectations compared to the poor seasonal conditions in 2024–25. However, if the largely favourable climate outlook is not realised, and growing regions remain dry, there is further downside potential for average yields.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024–25.
Source: ABARES

Despite ongoing dry conditions, winter crop production in South Australia is forecast to increase by 42% to 7.5 million tonnes in 2025–26. However, this outcome will be highly reliant on the above-average winter rainfall forecast being realised. This remains 3% below the 10-year average to 2024–25. Limited autumn rainfall has seen a large proportion of the 2025–26 winter crop sown dry.

Area planted to winter crops in South Australia is forecast to fall by 2% to 3.8 million hectares in 2025–26, reflecting well below average autumn rainfall. However, this remains 5% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. The largest percentage decrease in area planted is expected for canola, as persistent dry conditions have resulted in a shift to less input intensive options such as barley and lentils.

The Bureau of Meteorology's three-month rainfall outlook (June to August), released on 22 May 2025, suggests a 60-70% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the Eyre Peninsula. Remaining cropping regions are expected to receive average or better winter rainfall with a 50-60% chance of exceeding the median.

Under this forecast rainfall outlook, winter crop yields in South Australia are forecast to increase by 44% to 2 tonnes per hectare in 2025–26, with the average state yield 6% below the 10-year average to 2024–25. While soil moisture levels remain extremely low, the positive rainfall outlook for winter is expected to provide sufficient moisture to support the germination, establishment, and growth of winter crops and support higher yield potential compared to the poor seasonal conditions in 2024–25. However, these current yield expectations are highly reliant on the favourable rainfall outlook for winter being realised.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024–25.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Western Australia is forecast to fall by 9% to 20.8 million tonnes in 2025–26. This is 16% above the 10-year average to 2024–25 of 18.0 million tonnes. The forecast year-on-year decrease in production is largely attributed to lower expected yields more than offsetting an increase in area planted.

Area planted to winter crops in Western Australia in 2025–26 is forecast to increase by 3% to just over 9 million hectares, 7% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. This largely reflects an increase in barley and canola area sown in southern Western Australia, where growers have enjoyed a strong start to the winter cropping season. Hotter than average conditions and limited rainfall during autumn have led to low levels of soil moisture across northern cropping regions which has discouraged some planting, especially for high-risk crops such as canola.

Adequate and timely rainfall will be required in the coming weeks to support germination of dry sown crops, particularly in the Geraldton cropping zone where topsoil is dry, and subsoil moisture is severely deficient. According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 22 May 2025, there is a slightly lower chance of exceeding median rainfall in central and southern cropping regions which is not ideal, but the outlook is neutral in the north.

Winter crop yields are forecast to fall by 12% in 2025–26 but remain 9% above the 10-year average to 2024–25, reflecting the favourable start to the season in southern cropping regions and close to average rainfall outlook. However, these current yield expectations are highly reliant on timely in crop rainfall to be realised.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024–25.
Source: ABARES